In the course of just a few days, Yuki Tsunoda's F1 career went from possibly getting his last shot to prove he could go somewhere else besides Red Bull's B team, to getting a spot in the big leagues with the team that passed him over time and time again.
Life comes at you fast.
The 24-year-old in his fifth F1 season will not only get his big chance, he'll get to do it at his home grand prix.
The second Red Bull seat has not been kind to pretty much anyone in recent years. Liam Lawson, Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly were struggling at nearly all times in their tries. Sergio Perez's once promising form in year one fell off a complete cliff as time went on.
Now it's Tsunoda's chance to see if anyone can tackle that second seat next to four-time champion Max Verstappen. It's now or never.
How we got here
There's a lot of "what's fair?" in the last few year of Red Bull's operational choices.
Daniel Ricciardo gets unceremoniously canned midseason, seemingly in a confusing and not-so-honorable way. Only weeks earlier, there were rumblings that the last driver to really challenge Max Verstappen was going to get to go head-to-head against him again. But instead, Lawson in, Honey Badger out.
So for the final six grand prix of 2024, it's Lawson vs. Tsunoda. Who wins the head-to-head? Tsunoda. Who gets to climb in the Red Bull in 2025? Lawson. A brutal blow to the driver who had been waiting for his chance since 2021.
And then, so it goes, Lawson was nowhere in his only two weekends with Red Bull, qualifying no better than 18th, crashing out once and scoring zero points. Fair or not, the quick-triggered Red Bull team has decided Tsunoda's 90th grand prix will be with the big boys.
Tsunoda vs. Verstappen
On every other team, you compare teammates directly head-to-head. In Red Bull land, you just hope and pray whoever is against Verstappen gets close.
Verstappen's previous head-to-head records for race finishes look like this: 23-1, 20-2, 17-4, 19-3, 12-5.
It's Verstappen's raw skill mixed with how difficult the car is to drive: Verstappen himself will tell you. And Verstappen has had the big say in molding the car into what works for him, and that has only evolved further in the fourth and final year of the current regulations.
Tsunoda has seen so many different sets of expectations with AlphaTauri/VCARB/Racing Bulls. We've seen times when the car was a consistent point scorer. We've seen it be one of the worst on the grid. We've seen Tsunoda deliver masterful drives and we've heard him driven to madness on the radio -- something that he has clearly adjusted to do less, to be fair.
Here's Tsunoda's career so far: He debuted in the points in 2021, but then only found his way back in the top 10 twice over 15 races. His best ever drive is completely forgotten - he came in fourth in the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, where ... well yeah. He scored his most overall points in his rookie season (32) but finished highest last year (12th). So far he's finished 12th and 16th in the two 2025 grand prix, but he has three points thanks to a sixth-place sprint finish in China.
So that begs the question: What is a successful opening race for Tsunoda? And with him apparently set to pilot the car for the next 22 races, what's an acceptable season?
Tsunoda: Great Expectations?
For race number one, a top 10 in both quali and the race is a good start. Lawson couldn't find his way even to Q2 or into the points in his limited time, so any sign of moving forward or hope that Tsunoda has a good early understanding and skill in the car is positive.
Tsunoda has yet to score any points at his home circuit in F1, so that could add a degree of difficulty. And that's before you even consider the pressure that comes from this unique moment. If Suzuka doesn't go well, he'll at least have a Bahrain circuit where he's scored twice up next.
As for the season? It's a bit more complicated. It's entirely clear how the Red Bull is weaker this year, but can the team develop it back into better form? Just how much is Verstappen over-performing?
The only thing you can say is as long as Tsunoda is consistently ahead of the Aston Martin, Williams, Haas, Alpine, Sauber and, of course, the Racing Bulls, he can at least know he's not underperforming. Beating any Mercedes, McLaren or Ferrari drivers would be a sign Tsunoda could finally be what Red Bull has been looking for in that second seat.