The Whiteboard: Can the Detroit Pistons really win a playoff series?

I want to start with this graphic from The Ringer’s Kirk Goldsberry and his conclusion.

Look at the Detroit Pistons! 

Owners of the league’s second-best net rating since the trade deadline and threatening to climb up from the oh-hey-that’s-cute No. 6 seed to the holy-sh**-they-have-home-court No. 4 seed. (The Pistons are in a virtual tie with the Bucks and Pacers.)

As Goldberry wrote in his analysis, the Pistons “will not be a typical 5- or 6-seed; they will be a problem for some unlucky playoff opponent.”

But, like, will they?

Here’s where the Pistons rank in 34 games since Jan. 1:

• Net: 5th
• ORTG: 13th
• DRTG: 2nd

They are 23-11 in that time, including an eight-game win streak and signature wins over New York, Houston, Dallas (y’know, before) and Boston. Their rankings during this stretch compare favorably to last season’s party crashers, the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks, who saw second-half surges fuel extended playoff runs.

The biggest reason for Detroit’s winning basketball is Cade Cunningham. Among qualified players, he ranks 10th in points per game and third in assists. He has leveled up as a playmaker this season, showing a steadiness and control that belies his age. Cunningham, the top pick in the 2021 draft, has graduated from theoretical to real.

On the other end, Isaiah Stewart has boiled over into one of the league’s most physical defenders. He’s a menace who doesn’t fear a foul call at the rim and collects confrontations with stars such as LeBron James and Stephen Curry like a boy scout. The snot factor with him is off the charts and evokes the proud Bad Boy history of this franchise. Ausar Thompson recently claimed that he’s the best perimeter defender in the NBA, and he has a strong argument.

Meanwhile, the entire roster has gelled into something far greater than last season’s 14-win outfit. Newcomers Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley have a lot to do with that. Harris leads the team in on/off splits and is showcasing the subtle and sophisticated floor game that made him special as a Clipper, but were often forgotten as a 76er. 

Beasley has made so many catch-and-shoot jumpers that he may lap the field. As Goldberry pointed out, Beasley has taken nearly 100 more catch-and-shoot 3s than any other player in the NBA this season. Beasley has made more than 43 percent of his 467 catch-and-shoot attempts.

All of this adds up to a formula that could be trouble for a first-round opponent. Cunningham is capable of being the best player in a series that doesn’t include Giannis Antetokounmpo.

If the standings were frozen today, the Pistons would face the Knicks in the first round. Cunningham would spend most of that series hunting Jalen Brunson on switches, while Stewart and Jalen Duren would make it their business to make Karl-Anthony Towns miserable. I don’t know that I would pick the Pistons in that series, but I don’t know that I wouldn’t, either.

Could the Pistons upset the Pacers in a first-round series? Perhaps. Opponents tend to have a hard time adjusting to Indiana’s pace, but the Pistons are actually playing a faster tempo than the Pacers since Jan. 1. 

(This has been a quiet development for a team that started the season in the bottom 10 in pace. As they’ve gelled, they’ve learned to do the things they want to do faster. Ausar Thompson’s return to form also has a lot to do with this.)

Defeating the Bucks will be tough, but the Pistons at least have a bullpen of big bodies to throw at Giannis and an elite wing defender in Thompson who can help defend Damian Lillard.

Whether or not the Pistons are a first-round favorite, opponents cannot take them solely as a feel-good story. They are a legitimately good basketball team with a tough defense and one of the best points creators in the league. That’s a dangerous formula, and it shouldn’t be shocking if the Pistons pull off a first-round upset. 

Make no mistake, Detroit Basketball is back.

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NBA News Roundup

• Tyrese Haliburton hit an insane game-winner and completed the four-point play with a free throw to punctuate the Pacers’ thrilling win over the Bucks. With 21 lead changes and a game-winner that Pacers fans will remember, it goes down as one of the games of the year.

• Zion Williamson posted his second-career triple-double (22 points, 12 assists, 10 rebounds) and led the Pelicans to a quality win over the Clippers.

• The Cavaliers, without Donovan Mitchell, rallied from 18 points down to beat the Nets and extend their win streak to 15. The Cavaliers are the first team with multiple 15-game win streaks in a single season since the 2006-07 Phoenix Suns. If you remember, they started the season with a 15-game win streak.

Questions for Celtics vs. Thunder

Most sportsbooks list Celtics vs. Thunder as the favorite NBA Finals matchup. These two teams meet for the second and final time this regular season on Wednesday night. Here are some of my biggest questions that I’m looking forward to having answered.

How does Boston guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? 

In their Jan. 5 meeting (an Oklahoma City win), the Celtics mostly had Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday defend Gilgeous-Alexander. It didn’t work. SGA shot 8 for 11 and created 44 points for his team with Brown or Holiday guarding him.

Derrick White was Boston’s best defender, according to matchup data, holding Gilgeous-Alexander to 1 for 6 shooting. I’ll be watching who Celtics coach Joe Mazulla assigns to SGA on the first few possessions and down the stretch.

Can Thunder keep up with Boston’s 3-point shooting?

The Celtics take nine more 3-point attempts per game than the Thunder. That will usually be something the Thunder need to account for, but it helps when the Celtics miss 37 of their 46 3-point attempts, as they did in their last meeting. Don’t expect that to happen again.

When does each team go big, if at all?

Both teams have a pair of bigs that they will sometimes play together but it’s unclear how they will approach this matchup. The Thunder have started both Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren over the last handful of games. They’ll probably stick with it, especially with Jalen Williams expected to miss the game. The Celtics can sometimes go with both Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford, but Porzingis is questionable for the game (as is Jayson Tatum). It won’t shock me if both coaches decide to keep some of their more interesting lineups under wraps just in case these teams do meet in the Finals.