After Tuesday night, we now know two more of our NBA playoff matchups. The Boston Celtics will face the Magic in the East’s 2 vs. 7 matchup, and the Rockets will take on the Warriors in the West.
Let’s dive into the key questions that will impact each series.
(2) Celtics vs. (7) Magic
Key question: Can Orlando make enough 3s to at least make things interesting?
I’ve got two stats for you: At the top of the league in 3-point shooting, we have the Celtics, who are making 17.8 3s per game. And at the bottom of the league in 3-point shooting, we have the Magic, who are making 11.2 3s per game.
The Magic don’t have a single player in this series averaging at least two made 3s per game. The Celtics have five (six if you want to round up Al Horford’s 1.9). If the Celtics play their game, they should win this series easily.
Interestingly enough, the Celtics are 1-2 against the Magic this season. That’s because Orlando limited them to 36.7 3-point attempts per game in the regular season, and the Celtics converted on just 29.1 percent of those shots.
No team does a better job of limiting their opponent’s 3-point attempts than the Magic. They hold their opponents to 32.4 3-point attempts per 100 possessions, about 17 fewer attempts than what the Celtics average per 100 possessions (49.6).
I’m not too worried about the Celtics in this position, but it’s something worth monitoring.
(2) Rockets vs. (7) Warriors
Key question: Will “Playoff Jimmy” swing the series?
When these teams met earlier this month, Jimmy Butler attempted just seven shots and four free throws. With Amen Thompson hounding Steph Curry, the Warriors needed someone else to step up. Rockets coach Ime Udoka shouldn’t veer from that strategy. Take out Curry and make everyone else beat you.
This is why the Warriors traded for Butler. “Playoff Jimmy” raises this team’s ceiling. We saw it when Butler scored 38 points against the Grizzlies on Tuesday night.
Unlike the Grizzlies, the Rockets have other players who can theoretically defend Butler. (It turns out that Zach Edey is not one of those players, theoretically or otherwise.)
Even with Thompson chasing Curry around, the Rockets still have Dillon Brooks and Tari Eason to guard Butler. They also have the bulk inside to soak up that valuable space around the restricted area that Butler loves so much. But guys like Brooks, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. are foul-prone. If Butler is in his bag, he could swing this series from the foul line.
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NBA news roundup
- The Magic beat the Hawks to advance to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the East. Cole Anthony came off the bench for 26 points. Trae Young led the Hawks with 28 points but was ejected with 4:47 left in the game. The Hawks will host the winner of Wednesday night’s game between the Heat and Bulls on Friday in the final play-in game.
- Jimmy Butler scored 38 and Stephen Curry had 37 to lead the Warriors over the Grizzlies to earn the No. 7 seed in the West. The Grizzlies will host the winner of Mavericks vs Kings on Friday. Ja Morant rolled his ankle late in Tuesday’s loss. His status will be something to monitor.
Two pivotal NBA offseasons will begin tonight
Tonight, two teams’ seasons will come to an end — because that’s how the 9 vs. 10 matchup works. Here’s what they’ll need to accomplish when their offseason begins.
Chicago Bulls: Re-sign Josh Giddey
The trade most people hated (not me!) ended up working out. Josh Giddey emerged as the biggest straw in Chicago’s drink this season and will be a free agent this summer. Giddey’s fingerprints are all over Chicago’s second-ranked pace that became the team’s identity after trading away Zach LaVine in February. The Bulls have Giddey’s Bird rights and have plenty of room below the dreaded aprons, so this shouldn’t be an issue. The Bulls would never screw something like this up, right?
Miami Heat: Trade for a star
Pat Riley does not have much patience for rebuilds, and the Heat will be linked to any and every star available this summer. But it’s not just a narrative. After the Jimmy Butler trade, the Heat have the players and draft picks to build a compelling trade package. Kevin Durant is the obvious target, but the Heat will also be monitoring situations in Milwaukee and Memphis.
Dallas Mavericks: Re-sign Kyrie Irving and get another scorer
Irving’s torn ACL complicates his free agency a bit, but the Mavericks have little choice but to bring him back on an expensive deal. After all, GM Nico Harrison has hitched his wagon to Irving and Anthony Davis. But Irving’s injury could sideline him into next season. The Mavericks should find another ball-handler to run their offense through so they can be patient with Irving’s recovery.
Sacramento Kings: Blow it up
Ask Chicago if LaVine and DeMar DeRozan is a scoring duo worth building around. The Kings are stuck in the tough Western Conference, and things aren’t going to get easier. Domantas Sabonis is hinting at reevaluating things this summer. We saw what the Kings did with the last star who didn’t commit long-term. There’s no use in trying to turn these lemons into lemonade. Tear it down and start over.