We have reached the final four NASCAR drivers vying for the first-ever In-Season Challenge championship. NASCAR aimed for chaos with this bracket challenge, and they got just that.
The Cup Series returns to a traditional oval for the first time in the in-season challenge, with the first three races at a drafting track (Atlanta), a street course (Chicago) and a road course (Sonoma). Now, the final four will have to negotiate the 1-mile concrete Dover Motor Speedway.
So who's left? What are the rules of this challenge? And who might win?
What are the rules of the NASCAR In-Season Challenge?
Think March Madness, but cars, and those who are eliminated will get to keep driving.
32 drivers qualified for the tournament by being in the top 32 of the NASCAR Cup standings. There are five races in the Challenge: Atlanta was the opening round and dropped the field from 32 to 16, then Chicago brought us down to eight and Sonoma gave us our final four.
This week in Dover, that bracket will be whittled down to the final two. The winner gets $1 million.
Who is left in the NASCAR tournament bracket?
A Monstrous round awaits our four remaining drivers. pic.twitter.com/i7ZfVHwkHl
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 14, 2025
It is a bizarre field of four: Just one of the remaining drivers sits inside the playoff bubble and none of them have won a race this season. Only one of them has ever won a race in the Cup Series (Tyler Reddick). Oh, and 3/4 of the field is named "Tyler."
Lowest overall seed Ty Dillon pulled off a third upset, moving Alex Bowman out of the way at the proverbial buzzer to advance. John Hunter Nemechek won the head-to-head with his Legacy Motor Club teammate Erik Jones, but it was not quite a battle worthy of a spot in the final four: Nemechek won by coming in 28th.
Reddick used his road course prowess to take sixth at Sonoma over Ryan Preece's 12th.
Ty Gibbs finishes the field (which is 75% Toyotas) after his P7 up against Zane Smith's P27.
What races are left in the tournament?
Including this weekend in Delaware, just two races are left.
All races will be on TNT.
Chase Elliott won the opening round in Atlanta, while Shane van Gisbergen (who didn't qualify for the tournament due to being too low in points ahead of the tournament) won in Chicago and Sonoma.
Round | Track | Date/Time |
|---|---|---|
Round of 4 | Dover (1-mile oval) | Sunday, July 20 @ 2 p.m. ET |
Championship Round | Indianapolis (2.5-mile oval) | Sunday, July 27 @ 2 p.m. ET |
Predictions for the semifinal round of the NASCAR In-Season Challenge
A quick note: The seedings are essentially meaningless. They were not set by point standing position, but instead by finishes during a set of three races before the tournament started.
I've included their regular-season points position for a better idea of where the drivers stand for the full season.
No. 12 John Hunter Nemechek (22nd in points) vs. No. 32 Ty Dillon (31st in points)
Week 1: Picked against Dillon, but recognized the randomness of Atlanta. Dillon wins the matchup vs. Denny Hamlin.
Week 2: Picked against Dillon knowing he's very poor at road courses, but recognized the chaos of Chicago. Dillon wins the matchup vs. Brad Keselowski after the No. 6 crashes in the opening moments.
Week 3: Picked against Dillon because there's no way he could beat Alex Bowman at a road course, right? Wrong: He bump-and-runs him to the final four.
The most insane thing about this matchup, and there are many, is this is probably Dillon's most winnable matchup in the tournament — and it's in the final four!
Nemechek has taken steps forward in 2025, but he is still not an incredibly competitive driver each week. He barely made the top 30 last week to advance. In three Cup starts at Dover, Nemechek has finished between 20th and 24th each time. In his Xfinity and Truck career, he's had very mixed results here.
Dillon's previous three Dover Cup starts have been even worse than Nemechek, an average finish of about 31st. But nothing about Dillon's run here has made sense, so how about this: Dillon's most impressive run of his quiet Cup career came at Dover back in 2017. He led 27 laps and was in line for a top-five finish when he wrecked during overtime.
He's vanquished Hamlin, Bad Brad and Bowman. Why not.
WINNER: Dillon
No. 6 Ty Gibbs (17th in points) vs. No. 23 Tyler Reddick (4th in points)
This matchup is much, much stronger and can be a heck of a lot more interesting in terms of actual high-level driving.
The Toyota drivers both are capable of posting top fives and having winning skills. Gibbs is still waiting for his first career Cup victory, while Reddick is still looking for his first of the season.
A good, solid effort means much more for Gibbs than Reddick. Reddick has a huge cushion above the playoff bubble that would only disappear if four other drivers win over the coming six races or he has an unbelievable meltdown.
Gibbs, meanwhile, is 60 points outside of the playoffs. This is actually as good of a postseason outlook as he has seen all year. He has three top-10s over his last six races, and has finished no worse than 14th over that period. (It's a stark contrast from earlier in the season, when Gibbs finished 25th or worse six times over 14 races.)
So overall, Reddick has a lot less to lose and can be aggressive with the knowledge that a low-percentage move or pit-stop gamble won't kill his season. In the end, the playoffs mean more than $1 million.
In terms of Dover results, Gibbs has finished 10th and 13th in his only two Cup starts there, and was in the top five in both of his Xfinity results. Reddick has never netted a top five, but has an average finish of 9.0 in his time with 23XI.
WINNER: Reddick