Upside and Motor: Wild lottery outcomes that could reshape the 2025 NBA Draft order

The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Monday, May 12. That fateful evening will give one very lucky team the right to select Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick. Beyond that, a loaded, top-heavy rookie class awaits the NBA's most shameless tankers.

While the league has made every effort to discourage tanking, whether it be a strict player participation policy or a flattening of the odds, Sam Hinkie has left his indelible mark on the modern NBA. When there isn't a path to contention, short or long term, it's generally smart to tear it all down and rebuild through the draft. Especially when the draft is this strong.

In anticipation of Monday's festivities, let's uncork Tankathon and simulate the lottery five times, hashing out a quick top-seven mock draft for each spin and talking about what various outcomes might lead to.

NBA Draft Lottery Spin No. 1

The New Orleans Pelicans luck into the No. 1 pick — and potentially establish their pathway to post-Zion Williamson success. We have no real sense of how new team president Joe Dumars will run things in 2025, but we can imagine the Pelicans are tired of running into the same injury-related pitfalls with Williamson. Flagg gives NOLA a more durable franchise cornerstone to reorient the roster around, hypothetically.

Perhaps the most interesting inflection point here is the Utah Jazz at No. 3. Utah surely hopes to walk away with either Flagg or Dylan Harper after a season of blatant self-sabotage, but there's still a chance to unearth star value in the No. 3 spot. Based on recent trends, Oklahoma point guard Jeremiah Fears feels like a real possibility.

The Jazz need someone to stir the drink offensively. Fears can put two feet in the paint at will. He quickness, deceleration and explosiveness make for a dynamic ball-handling hub. He needs to boost his efficiency and trim down on turnovers, but the ceiling is extremely high for an 18-year-old.

San Antonio could also go a few different directions here, but it's hard to imagine Ace Bailey falling much further than No. 4 due to his unique size and shot-making talent. The Spurs will hope their culture and system can mitigate Bailey's bad habits and elevate his strengths. Wemby and Bailey as a foundational duo has dizzying upside.

NBA Draft Lottery Spin No. 2

The Pelicans at No. 3 feels like prime Ace Bailey territory. Let's assume, in this instance, Zion Williamson is staying put. The Pelicans have a deep roster, with multiple playmaking engines and a high defensive ceiling. Bailey can fit right in as a supercharged floor-spacer who can play within himself and focus on the little things, which he didn't do enough of at Baylor.

This is the second straight fall to No. 5 for the Washington Wizards. A tough beat, but VJ Edgecombe is one heck of a consolation prize. Edgecombe has a chance to go as high as No. 3, but rudimentary handles and questions about his pull-up jumper could lead teams to bet on a more dynamic on-ball generator like Fears.

Tre Johnson is another name generating buzz as high as No. 3, no doubt because of how well his skill set translates to a workout setting. Teams watching a 6-foot-6 wing with a 6-foot-10 wingspan roping tough jumpers and creating his own looks from mid-range are bound to come away impressed. Johnson was not always optimized at Texas, but his shot-making is virtually peerless among his freshmen counterparts.

NBA Draft Lottery Spin No. 3

L O L.

This is a real doozy, and pretty much the nightmare scenario for all the true bottom-feeders. We almost never see all three of the worst teams record-wise miss out on the top four entirely.

The Philadelphia 76ers add Cooper Flagg to an expensive roster full of question marks. What is Joel Embiid's future? Can Paul George return to form? Who knows. But the Embiid-George-Maxey trio, with Quentin Grimes, Jared McCain and Cooper Flagg rounding out the roster's top six, is more than enough firepower to contend in the East. Flagg is 18, but he'd be a huge help out of the gate.

Portland at No. 2 is a fascinating outcome. Dylan Harper is virtually a lock in that spot, but the Blazers are flush with guards. Harper is the most polished pick-and-roll operator and the most advanced passer on day one. He could be the straw that breaks the camel's back with regards to Anfernee Simons, who is already popping up in trade rumors. The Blazers should take a stab at Harper and Scoot Henderson in the backcourt together, but that recipe is far from a guaranteed success.

Charlotte has countless viable options all the way back at No. 7, but Duke's Kon Knueppel stands out for his elite shooting and high basketball IQ. The Hornets need someone other than LaMelo Ball who can process the floor quickly and grease the wheels of the offense. Knueppel's high floor and consistent motor is what this Hornets team needs.

NBA Draft Lottery Spin No. 4

If this is how the Chicago Bulls break out of this vicious cycle of mediocrity, so be it. The front office does not deserve such a reward for their stubborn unwillingness to instigate real change, but Bulls fans have been suffering long enough. Flagg gives the franchise a real direction for the first time since Derrick Rose was winning playoff games.

Ace Bailey probably won't light up the analytics models Daryl Morey loves so much, but he's a major talent and a clear fit for Philadelphia. Of course the Sixers would benefit from a 6-foot-10 sniper in the frontcourt between Joel Embiid and Paul George. Shot diet will be a concern, but with so much established talent on the Sixers roster, ideally Bailey can settle into a streamlined role and play to his strengths.

Washington's tumble to No. 6 presents an interesting conundrum. The Wizards won't get their star on-ball generator in this spot, unless the front office reaches a little bit to select Illinois' Kasparas Jakucionis. We could see the Wizards swing on a frontcourt partner for Alex Sarr — Maryland's Derik Queen and Duke's Khaman Maluach are both compelling options. In the end, however, the safest bet is Tre Johnson, whose name is red-hot in draft circles right now. He fits an simple archetype that every team covets.

NBA Draft Lottery Spin No. 5

Another real barn burner. The Jazz finally keep the No. 1 pick and land Cooper Flagg, which changes the direction of their franchise in a major way. Finally Will Hardy can start building toward something tangible.

The Nets jump up to No. 3 but stick with their point guard of choice, Jeremiah Fears. Beyond the obvious top-two picks, there isn't a single prospect with a higher ceiling — at least not when angling to build an entire scheme and personnal group around him. The Nets are starting from scratch. Fears can carry a team to victory when he's on his A-game.

Dallas jumping up to No. 4 is a real conundrum. The Mavs ideally need a point guard with some size, like the aforementioned Kasparas Jakucionis or, in a perfect world, Dylan Harper. Neither feels like a real option at No. 4, though, so the Mavs swing on VJ Edgecombe, the sort of dogged perimeter defender who can adhere to the Nico Harrison ethos. He's a tremendous backcourt complement to Kyrie Irving on paper, too. Edgecombe played with Klay Thompson on the Bahamian national team last summer.

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Who are the five best shooting prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft?

Shooting is impossible to quantify but also extremely mathematical. Obviously, the best shooters aren't just the shooters with the highest field goal percentage or 3-point clip. Whether it's mechanics, shot variety or range, a variety of factors go into determing the best "shooter" from a certain draft. And, more often than not, that designation changes over time as players develop under NBA programs.

For now, here's our best stab at ranking the five best shooting prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft.

5. Ace Bailey, F, Rutgers (Fr.)

The numbers won't back this up at all (.460/.346/.692), but Ace Bailey is a preternaturally gifted shot-maker. There is an important distinction, probably, between shot-maker and shooter, but Bailey has a pretty jump shot. He's 6-foot-10, which means a high release point and an incredible knack for hitting difficult looks with a hand in his face. Bailey needs to clean up his shot selection, but there is not a mroe willing and dynamic shooter in the draft. Bailey will launch from any angle, from anywhere on the floor, and he's always a threat.

4. Koby Brea, F, Kentucky (Sr.)

Koby Brea is a second round talent, but in terms of pure shooting, he's the best of the best. Brea drilled 43.5 percent of his 3s on 5.9 attempts at Kentucky. The season prior, his fourth and final at Dayton, Brea hit 49.8 percent of his 3s on even higher volume. Specialists are fewer and further between in the NBA nowadays, but Brea's workmanlike consistency behind the 3-point line gives him a strong chance to carve out a role somewhere.

3. Kon Knueppel, F, Duke (Fr.)

Kon Knueppel drilled 40.6 percent of his 3s as a freshman at Duke. You need only watch him shoot to understand. The mechanics are quick, compact and graceful. He's comfortable running off screens, zagging into a step-back or launching rapid-fire off the catch. He attempted 5.3 per game from long range for the Blue Devils. A 19-year-old with Knueppel's baseline of touch and awareness can go a long way at the next level.

2. Tre Johnson, G, Texas (Fr.)

Tre Johnson was incredibly efficient (39.7 percent) on a high volume of 3s (6.8 per game) at Texas. The Longhorns offense was outmoded and often somewhat stagnant, but Johnson was still able to showcase the full breadth of his shot-making talent. Blessed with long arms and a high release point, Johnson's mechanics are textbook. He boasts polished footwork for step-backs and side-steps, he's comfortable launching at tough angles over a contest, and the trigger is awfully quick. The rest of his skill set needs some work, but Johnson's shooting is why so many teams like him.

1. Walter Clayton Jr., G, Florida (Sr.)

Walter Clayton Jr. led Florida to the national title to cap an impressive and improbable amateur career. A former non-entity on the recruiting trail, Clayton went from mid-major star at Iona to one of the very best players in college basketball with the Gators. Now he heads to the NBA, having made 38.6 percent of his 7.8 attempts per game from 3-point range as a senior. In addition to razor-sharp mechanics, Clayton has boundless range and a real knack for difficult shots. Whether he's pulling up, gunning around a screen or simply embracing the catch-and-shoot, Clayton's versatility, volume and touch is unmatched among his peers.