WM Phoenix Open expert picks 2025: PGA Tour golf predictions and analysis for TPC Scottsdale

For golf fans, Super Bowl week is also the best time of year because it also happens to be WM Phoenix Open week. The trip to TPC Scottsdale annually is easily the biggest party on the PGA Tour and we also get to see one of the most fun tests on the golf calendar as well. And that doesn't just include staring down the barrel of the crowded 16th hole and hoping you don't get booed.

Nick Taylor pulled out a dramatic playoff victory over Charley Hoffman at the WM Phoenix Open a year ago but Scottie Scheffler, of course, is making his second start of the season on the PGA Tour this week and is the heavy favorite according to oddsmakers. There's a pretty wide discrepancy between the World No. 1 atop the odds board before we get to Justin Thomas. But once again, we're not riding with Scottie.

Maybe that's a mistake, especially since we've been a bit cold of late when it comes to our PGA Tour expert picks. We're staying the course with our process, though, and moving on with our WM Phoenix Open picks, starting with our winner prediction before unpacking a Top 10 pick, sleepers and more.

Golf betting record in 2025: 3-16-0, -7.025 Units (-3 Units at Pebble Beach) | One and Done Total for 2025: $2,424,602 (Justin Thomas at Pebble Beach, $48,600)

Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

WM Phoenix Open golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done

Pick to win the WM Phoenix Open (0.5 Units): Maverick McNealy (+6000, FanDuel)

On some level, it's been a strange start to the 2025 season for Maverick McNealy, largely because his form has been counter to what we saw most of last year and really throughout his career. He's 16th in SG: Approach over the last 28 rounds but his short game hasn't been at its normal extremely high level. Even at 60/1 odds, though, this is a guy who finished T6 in this tournament a year ago and is now striking the ball exponentially better. If the short game comes back to his normal form, McNealy should contend this week.

Top 10 pick for the WM Phoenix Open: Justin Thomas (+125)

Justin Thomas did us precisely no favors last week as he just couldn't find the gear he needed while struggling off of the tee. However, he's now gained on approach in eight straight events and his history at TPC Scottsdale is stellar. He has six straight Top 15 finishes at this place, including four inside the Top 10 and three inside the Top 5. Getting him at plus odds when to get into the Top 10 again in a non-signature event field and with how well he's performed overall to start the 2025 season feels like an enormous gift.

One and Done pick for the WM Phoenix Open: Maverick McNealy

Again, this isn't a signature event, so we're not necessarily trying to go after a big name for One and Done. Luckily, I think McNealy can win this week, making me fully happy to just roll him out this week and hope that, at minimum, he can finish near the top of the leaderboard even if he isn't able to cash our outright pick.

Sleepers to watch at the WM Phoenix Open

Top 40 sleeper pick for the WM Phoenix Open: Gary Woodland (+110)

I gave out Gary Woodland as a sleeper pick to win in the SI Golf betting roundtable this week but we're playing it a bit more conservative here with a Top 40 play as he's at 110/1 odds outright but still a solid +110 to simply not play poorly, which he hasn't done often when he's in form at this event. Woodland is Top 20 in both SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach over the last 28 rounds but also won here in 2018 and finished T7 the year after before his form fell off. After a T16 at Sony and then a T22 at Pebble, I think he comes through with a good finish in Phoenix.

Top 20 Sleeper pick for the WM Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak (+220)

When Andrew Novak gets hot, you'd be foolish to not take advantage, something we were late to the party on last year. After finishing third at Farmers and T13 at Pebble Beach, though, he seems primed to go on a bit of a mini run. Making that argument even stronger is that he finished T8 at this tournament a year ago in his debut at TPC Scottsdale, lending some credence to the idea that this is the perfect time for him to get hot. At better than 2/1 odds for only a Top 20, I'm thoroughly intrigued.