Well, that was an eventful Sunday, as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country both lost. Texas looked completely mismatched in the SEC title game against South Carolina while UCLA and USC played a tight one, with the Bruins coming out on top.
We'll have a new No. 1 team in the country this week, but who will it be? No. 3 UConn could move up, or the impressive championship game wins could push either UCLA or South Carolina into the top spot. What will happen?
Below is a projection of what Monday's AP Top 25 poll will look like after a wild week.
Projected AP Top 25 women's college basketball rankings
1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. UConn
4. Texas
5. USC
6. TCU
7. Duke
8. Notre Dame
9. NC State
10. LSU
11. Oklahoma
12. North Carolina
13. Ohio State
14. Kentucky
15. Baylor
16. West Virginia
17. Maryland
18. Tennessee
19. Alabama
20. Oklahoma State
21. Creighton
22. Kansas State
23. South Dakota State
24. Florida State
25. Michigan State
The three cases for No. 1
UConn, UCLA and South Carolina all have valid arguments for being ranked No. 1 in the country this week, but only one can prevail. As you can see above, my prediction is that UCLA is that team.
So, why not UConn? Well, this is one of those cases where being in the Big East really hurts the Huskies. We just saw South Carolina and UCLA beat the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country, respectively. What did we see from UConn? A dominant Big East semifinals win over Villanova.
Two things hurting UConn here. One is that the Huskies just don't have the opportunity to pick up impressive wins in conference play. Sure, the Big East is a step up from the American, where the Huskies languished after the original breaking apart of the Big East, but it's also a clear step below the four power conferences. The other issue is that the Big East scheduled its conference title game for Monday night, so UConn's chance to impress by beating a ranked Creighton team won't come until after Monday's poll release. That's why the prediction here is that the Huskies stay at No. 3.
As for the other two teams, both have big things going in their favor. South Carolina's 64-45 win over Texas is one of the most impressive wins we've seen this season, with the Gamecocks holding Texas to 29.6% shooting. In two of the three games between this team, South Carolina has won because it completely stifled the Horns offense.
But then there's UCLA, which picked up a huge win in the Big Ten title game against its biggest rival, USC. It was great revenge for the Bruins, whose two losses this year both came against the Trojans.
Ultimately, I think the voters do the same thing they did last week, which is rank UCLA over South Carolina. Remember, the Bruins have a head-to-head win over the Gamecocks earlier this season and while SC's win on Sunday was more impressive, it's probably not enough to jump the Bruins. (Now, it could be enough to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, as ESPN's Charlie Creme currently predicts.)
Duke moves up after ACC win, but...
...will it be enough to get a No. 2 seed for the Blue Devils? That's a question for another time, but Creme currently still has Notre Dame as a No. 2 seed and Duke as a No. 3, even after Duke's big week in Greensboro.
I do think Duke beating both Notre Dame and NC State this week will be enough for the voters to put them as the top ACC in this week's AP Poll, even if it doesn't change the NCAA Tournament seeding. The Blue Devils are peaking at the right time, winning six straight with four of those wins coming against ranked teams.
In Sunday's win, Ashlon Jackson and Oluchi Okananwa eached scored 22 points. For Jackson, that's just another day, but for Okananwa, it was a season-high and also her third game in a row scoring in double figures. One thing this Duke team has going for it is that it's incredibly deep, which helped keep things fresh
Tennessee and Kansas State have disappointing conference tournaments
After losing two in a row to end the regular season, Tennessee needed to get a good result in the SEC Tournament.
Things started off well, with the Volunteers dismantling Texas A&M by 40 points, but in the quarterfinals the team lost to Vanderbilt. It's not the the Commodores are a bad team or anything — they rank 20th in Her Hoop Stats rating — but if Tennessee had any shot at hosting first round games in the NCAA Tournament, the team had to beat its in-state rival. Instead, Tennessee now looks set to go on the road in the first round.
As for Kansas State, the Wildcats have been backsliding for awhile. After spending much of the season hanging right around TCU in the rankings and getting as high as No. 9, the team fell to No. 20 last week after losing three of its final four regular season games, all by double digits. The team opened the Big 12 tourney with a win over UCF, but then lost to West Virginia in the quarterfinals.
A month ago, Kansas State looked comfortably like a team that could host in the NCAA Tournament. Now, it'll be lucky to get a No. 5 seed.