Would a UNLV win knock Boise State out of the College Football Playoff picture?

The Mountain West Conference is playing a much larger part in College Football Playoff discussions than many folks thought it would before the season started. As we head into Week 9, two schools — UNLV and Boise State — are solidly in the race for a CFP spot, and now they face off on Friday in one of the most (potentially) thrilling games on the entire CFB slate. If UNLV knocks off Boise State and Heisman frontrunner Ashton Jeanty, does that vanquish the Broncos chance at a CFP?

Not exactly, but it would mean that Boise State needs to be perfect the rest of the way to feel confident about a CFP berth heading into selection day on December 8. A loss would also mean that Boise State (for the moment) no longer controls its destiny in the Mountain West, and would need some help from other teams to make the Mountain West Championship game — which is essentially a requirement for a playoff berth.

With a loss, Boise State would be 5-2 with those losses coming against top-ranked Oregon and a UNLV team that would presumably leap into the top 25, neither of which are bad losses by any means. But it would also drop Boise State to 2-1 in conference play while UNLV would improve to 3-0.

Colorado State and San Diego State, meanwhile, are both 2-0 in conference play right now. Boise State only plays San Diego State, not Colorado State, meaning the Broncos would need CSU to lose (at least) one conference game for the Broncos to climb back to the top of the conference, assuming that UNLV stays in the top spot in the conference the rest of the way.

There are a million different outcomes still possible in the Mountain West. While the short answer is no, Boise State wouldn't be dead in the CFP race with a loss on Friday, the Broncos would do themselves a massive favor by beating UNLV. Because even if Boise State loses this weekend and then wins out, there's a solid chance the Broncos sneak into the 12-team field, but that's leaving an awful lot in the hands of the CFP selection committee.

With a win, UNLV would be in the thick of the College Football Playoff race

Not only would this be a season-defining win for UNLV, it would be a program-defining win. The Rebels have been ranked in the top 25 once in program history... and that came in Week 6 of this year. With a win against Boise State, they would almost certainly jump into the top 25 rankings, as their resume would feature a ranked win and a single loss to a Syracuse team that might also be ranked if it pulls out a win on Friday.

A loss doesn't knock UNLV out of the playoff picture, either. UNLV and Boise State are basically in the same position; a win would do wonders for their playoff resume, but a loss and then a perfect remainder of the season — including a MWC Championship — probably still gets them into the playoffs. But "probably" isn't how either team wants to head into December 8.

There's also a good chance these two teams meet again in that Championship game, so this is likely not the last chapter in the Boise State versus UNLV book this season.