Famously, the 2024 draft class was dismissed as being "lesser than" most draft classes, especially with regard to the very top of the group. A common refrain in May and June was that there was not a clear No. 1 overall pick, simply due to an overall lack of star power, and preseason looks at the Rookie of the Year race pointed to general confusion.
Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain took a (very) early lead in the race back in October, but he appeared in only 23 games for a season-ending injury. Then, there was a wave of attention paid to a pair of older rookies — Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey — who share the court for the Memphis Grizzlies. Ultimately, neither had the statistical profile to really take control of the race, and over the last few months, San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle has taken the lead, at least when it comes to the betting odds.
In fact, Castle has reached as high as -1000 or better in some circles as the narrative hardened around his frontrunner status. To be fair, Castle has taken full advantage of the opportunity to serve as a lead player for the rebuilding Spurs, particularly after the season-ending ailment for Victor Wembanyama. However, a closer look at Castle's statistical profile yields a more mixed reaction to him as the clear frontrunner and, over the last few months, No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher is performing at the level of what many envision for a No. 1 pick.
As of March 31, Castle remains the betting favorite in the -700 range, but Risacher closed that gap after a wonderful performance on March 30 against the Milwaukee Bucks. The 19-year-old forward exploded for a career high 39 points in a road win, and he also produced multiple highlights ranging from acrobatic left-handed finishes to dunks and no-dip 3-pointers. That capped a very strong month for Risacher, who averaged 16.3 points on 53.3 percent shooting from the field and 39.3 percent from 3-point range in 14 March outings.
Zaccharie Risacher is creeping up in the Rookie of the Year race
Castle still leads the rookie class in scoring, averaging 14.2 points per game, but Risacher has a decisive advantage in efficiency, which has manifested in an advanced metric battle that is quite close, if not angling toward Risacher. Skeptics would perhaps point to Risacher's slow start, as he made only 24.7 percent of his 3-pointers in the first 17 games of the season. As such, opinions were formed during a time in which Risacher was struggling to make shots, and some have perhaps missed the resurgence. In fact, Risacher is now shooting 35 percent on nearly nine attempts per 100 possessions this season, with advanced defensive aptitude for his age and a starting-level workload on a team bound for the postseason.
If the voting were held on March 31, it seems relatively clear that Castle would take home the Rookie of the Year award, even if the race should be closer than it appears to be right now. Still, two weeks remain in the season and, while the Spurs are playing out the string with virtually no chance to reach the postseason, the Hawks are playing games with stakes that provide Risacher with a chance to continue leaving his mark.
36-point eruptions like the one on Sunday may not occur often for Risacher, but as far as what it would take for him to steal the award, the simple answer is a continuation of what he did in March. In zooming out, Risacher is nearing a half-season of clear "Rookie of the Year frontrunner" material. He is averaging 15.2 points per game on 52.2 percent shooting and 42.9 percent from 3-point range since returning from an injury absence in late January.
As voters perhaps dig in to candidacies for a more rigorous analysis, Risacher might spring to the forefront or at least approach Castle in some minds. A strong finish over the final two weeks of the campaign could only strengthen his chances, but if Risacher can produce a few more games in the realm of his showing in Milwaukee, he'll be in the mix all the way to the end.