The first weekend of March Madness gave us plenty of quality hoops. There wasn't as much chaos as we're accustomed to, but that just means better matchups in the Sweet 16 and beyond. And, just because there wasn't a lot of chaos, that doesn't mean we weren't treated to plenty of visceral excitement.
Maryland freshman Derik Queen delivered the defining moment of the 2025 NCAA Tournament to date with an impressive game-winning jumper against Colorado State on Sunday night. We've also witnessed the Duke buzzsaw in full effect, while Arkansas' feel-good run continues after an upset win over Rick Pitino's St. John's in the Round of 32.
For NBA Draft scouts, there has been plenty to chew on through the first few days of March Madness. It can be difficult to weigh the importance of NCAA Tournament breakouts against the certainty of a more complete body of work, but players who shine on this stage tend to get rewarded in June. As for those who struggle, well, it's just a harsher spotlight on well-known flaws.
Here are the prospects rising and falling ahead of this week's Sweet 16.
NBA Draft stock: Rising
Derik Queen, Maryland, freshman
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 10th
Derik Queen put Maryland into the Sweet 16 in storybook fashion, sinking a whirling turnaround jumper over a high contest at the buzzer to secure Sunday's 72-71 win over Colorado State.
INSANE VIEW OF DERIK QUEEN'S GAME WINNER 🤯#MarchMadness @TerrapinHoops pic.twitter.com/lGpjOFQzzc
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 24, 2025
An absolute star moment. And please, don't bring up the traveling nonsense. That is an NBA-level tough shot. The touch and coordination required for a 6-foot-10, 246-pound teenager to bury that jumper is difficult to overstate. Queen has been flipping his preseason narrative all year. He was billed as a throwback big with a questionable defensive projection coming out of Monteverde. Instead, he feels like perhaps the most "modern" center in the draft.
He has been excellent across the board in Maryland's first two games. His poise, playmaking vision, and shot-making variety in the frontcourt is unmatched among his positional peers. Don't be shocked if Queen has the Terps dancing deep into March.
Tyrese Proctor, Duke, junior
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 56th
Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel tend to steal the spotlight for Duke, but Tyrese Proctor has been on a heater through the Blue Devils' first couple games. He buried seven 3s and led the way with 25 points in Duke's second-round win over Baylor, their first "real" test of the tournament.
Proctor has been at Duke for a while, but he's still fairly young at 20 years old. His poise and efficiency as a setup man has always stood out. He doesn't turn the ball over much or get flustered under pressure. If he's now blossoming into a volume shooter, it will be difficult to keep him out of the second round. He may even sneak into the first round, depending on how far Duke pushes.
Nique Clifford, Colorado State, senior
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 24th
Colorado State was a Derik Queen prayer away from advancing to the Sweet 16. Just a few weeks ago, the Rams were a total afterthought in the bracketology conversation. It was senior Nique Clifford who willed Colorado State to March Madness, and he almost willed them to the biggest upset of the first weekend. There has not been a more productive, well-rounded player in college hoops since the regular season finale.
Clifford checks too many boxes for NBA scouts to ignore, even at 23 years old. He's a bursty driver and smooth playmaker with equally impressive off-ball instincts, always filling the lane on timely cuts and making himself available for backdoor lobs. He defends across the positional spectrum, rebounds at an absurd rate for a 6-foot-5, 200-pound wing, and has all the winning intangibles a team can ask for. He's in the lottery conversation right now.
Bennett Stirtz, Drake, junior
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 28th
The most predictable outcome was Bennett Stirtz leading Drake to the 11-6 upset over Missouri. It was never going to happen any other way. Now the 21-year-old point guard faces a dilemma: declare for the NBA and chase a future in the league, or return for his senior season and follow head coach to Ben McCollum to Iowa, where he'd get a chance to showcase his talents against high-level competition on a regular basis.
Stirtz played almost every minute for the Bulldogs this season. That didn't change in the NCAA Tournament. Both Missouri and Texas Tech threw everything in the book at Stirtz on defense, but he handled the pressure with aplomb. He has buttered his bread in the pick-and-roll this season, but he's comfortable attacking off the catch and finding other ways to penetrate the defense and set up teammates. The defensive concerns are valid, but he's too crafty and smart not to catch on with NBA teams at this point.
JT Toppin, Texas Tech, sophomore
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 36th
JT Toppin put Drake in the hurt locker in the second round, notching 25 points on 11-of-13 shooting with 12 rebounds and two blocks. The 6-foot-9, 210-pound sophomore has a somewhat unconventional offensive package, but it works too well to overthink things. He's ultra-efficient in the post and enough of a shooter to think he can one day space the floor in the NBA.
Toppin gets after it on defense, crashes the glass with an appreciable fervor, and scores with polished footwork in the post. He does all your classic big man things — hard screens, hard rolls, putback dunks, feathery touch shots — and the defense is high level. He's one of the hottest players left in the NCAA Tournament. Don't count out a deep run for the Red Raiders.
NBA Draft stock: Falling
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois, freshman
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 7th
Kasparas Jakucionis continues to baffle and intrigue scouts in equal measure with an enticing blend of size, passing, and shot-making. He's a good prospect, no doubt. We have seen plenty of NBA success stories from guards who offset athletic limitations with craft, skill, and efficiency. Still, Jakucionis has some troubling metrics that complicate his NBA outlook.
Sunday's loss to Kentucky marked Jakucionis' fourth straight game with six turnovers. He's not creating separation as a ball-handler and he's letting pressure spook him into ill-advised decisions. The defense is also a major grey area. Jakucionis' creativity, scalability, and shooting touch should keep him on lottery boards, but man, it's getting more challenging to truly endorse him as a potential star ball-handler in the NBA.
RJ Luis Jr., St. John's, junior
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: N/A
St. John's has hung its hat on the defensive end all season, but RJ Luis Jr. forced his way into the second round conversation with a varied scoring profile. He has been Rick Pitino's most trustworthy offensive hub, but that trust ran thin in Sunday's loss to Arkansas. Luis logged 30 minutes, scoring just nine points on 3-of-17 shooting (0-of-3 from deep), before getting benched down the stretch of a heartbreaking defeat.
Luis has upped his 3-point volume this season to complement his strengths as an interior finisher at 6-foot-5. Still, it's unclear if he's a real NBA shooter, and his Round of 32 performance was utterly catastrophic. He's a sharp defender, a good positional rebounder, and we shouldn't put too much stock into a single bad performance, but Luis was utterly flustered by the Razorbacks' stingy defense. He might need to return to school for one last ride before making the NBA leap.
Alex Condon, Florida, sophomore
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 51st
Alex Condon shot up draft boards late in the season as Florida emerged as the hottest team in the SEC and a No. 1 seed. It's easy to understand the NBA appeal. He's a true 7-footer with strong shot-blocking instincts, legitimate passing chops (1.9 AST:TO), and a fluid 3-point stroke. Florida is comfortable letting the offense run through Condon at the elbow, and he's mobile enough to get out in transition and fluidly handle the rock on face-up drives.
That said, Condon was borderline invisible for most of Florida's nail-biting, two-point win over UConn in the Round of 32. We shouldn't underrate such an accomplished Huskies team, but Florida was lucky to emerge with a victory there. Condon scored five points on just two shot attempts. He put up numbers elsewhere in 28 minutes (seven rebounds, four assists), but UConn kept him out of the mix offensively and looked unafraid to attack him on defense.
Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State, sophomore
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 60th
Iowa State was a predictable upset victim in the second round after a barrage of injuries and shooting slumps down the stretch. Still, it's an letdown for the Cyclones, and their Round of 32 loss to Ole Miss was a particularly rough showing for sweet-shooting sophomore Milan Momcilovic. He finished with five points, four rebounds, and one assist in 34 minutes, converting just 2-of-12 from the field (1-of-8 from deep).
Momcilovic has unique shot-making versatility and touch at 6-foot-8, but that is pretty much the extent of his impact. He has been a hot name in NBA Draft circles before (I would've advocated for him in the first round last summer), but Sunday's loss was a sobering reminder of how little Momcilovic provides when the funky mid-range jumpers and spot-up 3s aren't finding the bottom of the net.
Jase Richardson, Michigan State, freshman
- Latest FanSided big board ranking: 11th
Jase Richardson's stock is stable, but he has been fairly quiet through two rounds of March Madness. Michigan State has gotten off to slow starts against Bryant and New Mexico, which bodes poorly for those of up who picked the Spartans as a Final Four team. Richardson was quite bad in the Round of 32 against UNM, logging a team-high 30 minutes, but scoring six points and four assists on 1-of-10 shooting.
Of all the "fallers" from the first weekend, Richardson merits the least panic. He might even rise a few spots on my next big board installment based on the strength of his late-season resume. That said, he needs to pick it up if the Spartans want to push deep into March. Richardson did not inherit significant on-ball responsibilities until the tail end of the campaign. If his trademark efficiency wavers on college basketball's biggest stage much longer, it could lead NBA scouts to second guess their assessment of the 19-year-old combo guard.