Feb 8, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) defends Phoenix Suns guard Goran Dragic (1) during the second quarter at US Airways Center. The Suns won 122-109. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to the third week of Watchability Rankings, an attempt to project which games each week will be the most or least-entertaining.
The formula explained in the first post was once again left unchanged, which means to no surprise that this week is highlighted by games featuring the Golden State Warriors. Their matchups against Houston topped the first couple of weekly rankings, but with that pairing wrapped up for at least the regular season, this week has a new combo projected to be the most entertaining. Some late adjustments were made to account for the postponements in New York, but in the end a Saturday night game between Golden State and Phoenix sits atop the other 47 scheduled through the week.
Below are the rankings, but like last week you can also view the games sorted by day here. Tonight looks not too great, but not bad either. Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday each look to have a case as the best slate of games.
There’s a logjam in some spots like from fifth place to ninth and also some drop-offs like at the top as usual, but also from second-worst to the worst. It’s amusing that two of the least-entertaining matchups were originally scheduled to be nationally televised. Fun times.
We also have a couple new teams that cracked the top five, partly thanks to how much the formula loves Golden State. Using the formula from team-to-team rather than game-to-game[1. Replacing net rating difference and sum with just net rating.] shows that Golden State is in a league of their own, though there’s still plenty of movement across the league each week[2. Scores across the league show that teams trending upward the most are Oklahoma City, Atlanta, and Detroit while the teams declining are Toronto, New Orleans, Denver, and Boston.]. Using the formula that way, by going team-by-team and then averaging the scores between those in a matchup to get their Watchability score, is something I don’t like, though. It penalizes the most exciting games and helps those at the bottom, merging them much closer together.
On to the top and bottom five projected games of the week.
The Top Five
Phoenix at Golden State, Saturday: One of several Western Conference combinations that would score nicely. This one recorded a 9.6 or better in net rating sum, offensive efficiency, fast break points per 100 possessions, and pace[3. Pace and fast break points per 100 usually go together, though some matchups had sizeable differences between the two.].
Dallas at Houston, Wednesday: Scored 7.5 or better in six different categories. Opponent free throw rate and assist-to-turnover ratio were mainly what separated this game from Phoenix-Golden State.
Portland at Atlanta, Friday: It felt wrong having a game featuring the Hawks outside the top five last week. This one scored 7.5 or better in seven different categories, but was held back in the highlight statistics like dunks per 100 possessions as well as fast break points. They scored 3.4 and 2.8, respectively.
Chicago at Golden State, Tuesday: Another non-conference showdown, and now the second to post above-average marks in every category. It scored a perfect ten in net rating sum, meaning if we were judging these teams by their net ratings it would be the most stacked game of the week. Unfortunately, it’s the only game in the top five to be televised on either NBATV, ESPN, or TNT.
Golden State at Utah: It’s a hat trick for Golden State this week, and with them is the Utah Jazz, who lead the league in dunks per 100 possessions. Holding this game back from rising further in the rankings was the difference in net rating, where Utah isn’t too hot but just one of a few stats where Golden State looks ridiculous. In the first batch of rankings, this game placed ninth.
The Bottom Five
New York at Indiana, Thursday: A good example of how hard it is for a team to score really, really bad in the formula as they still managed a 36. New York-Indiana, the first of two games in the bottom five that was scrapped from the national audience, scored below 4.0 in eight categories but got bumped up thanks to their net rating difference and free throw rate. They were boosted a wee bit for potential lottery ball movement and not stopping play with free throws.
Sacramento at Indiana, Saturday: Scored a perfect ten in net rating difference, but other than that this matchup was almost as meh as New York-Indiana. Almost.
Philadelphia at New Orleans, Monday: This matchup made the bottom five in the first batch of rankings. At least this time Anthony Davis should be playing. There wasn’t any category this game stood out in with highest score being 6.2 for dunks per 100 possessions. Everything else finished between two and four points.
L.A. Lakers at New York, Sunday: I get how Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony on the court could get some fans to tune in, but on Super Bowl Sunday? This season has turned sour for both teams and was never projected to be a strong matchup anyway. Thankfully this game was also scrapped from national television.
Minnesota at Philadelphia, Friday: Actually scored pretty well in the highlight-ish categories of dunks and fast break points per 100 possessions, and also pace. They bottomed out in net rating sum, offensive rating, and assist-to-turnover ratio. Tanks are reloading for Friday night. Who will flinch?