January 16, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) controls the ball against the defense of Los Angeles Clippers forward Matt Barnes (22) during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Last Thursday looked like it was going to be a train wreck, with or without the Watchability formula. For the most part that turned out to be true, but that shouldn’t be the case this time around as both games scheduled to play on TNT cracked the top ten in the fourth weekly rankings.
Unfortunately, Thursday kind of evened out with Friday as a game on ESPN between Miami and San Antonio projected to be the fourth least-entertaining game of the week. Friday has drawn a lot of excitement already, though, regarding the matchup between Golden State and Atlanta. You can see how that game and the other 55 this week placed in the table below. As usual, the games sorted from Monday to Sunday can be found here.
Though it’s unfortunate that Golden State-Atlanta is not on ESPN, it’s nice to see five of the top eight games broadcasted on either that channel or TNT. That was not the case in the previous two weeks.
On to the top and bottom five. Got some explaining to do for a few of these.
The Top Five
Dallas at Golden State, Wednesday: About a month ago, I measured every possible game combination against each other and this one crushed with a score of 82.5. Second place, which was Mavericks-Clippers, scored a bit lower at 76.7, though there were multiple games around that mark. In a smaller sample with just this week’s games, Dallas-Golden State scored a 7.0 or better in every statistic except opposing free throw rate. Though there’s been more buzz around the second-place game this week, but this matchup should be a good one, on ESPN even.
Golden State at Atlanta, Friday: The best matchup possible regarding net rating, and for any other week it easily finishes in first place overall. I mean, the lowest score in the 10 categories thrown into the Watchability formula was a 6.2 for dunks per 100 possessions, but that was actually the biggest difference maker. Between this game and Mavericks-Warriors, the latter game scored a 9.3 in that statistic, but this isn’t adjusting for the fact that Kyle Korver’s slams are twice as entertaining as any other.
Portland at Dallas, Saturday: There should be a ton of scoring without stoppages from free throw attempts, which among the top five this game had the best marks in. They scored 8.2 in both team and opposing free throw rate, so neither team gets to the line well but they also don’t allow their opponent to. Lots of free-flowing offense, hopefully.
L.A. Clippers at Cleveland, Thursday: Nobody is more happy to see a nice slate of Thursday night games than Charles Barkley. Clippers-Cavaliers is the early matchup, but there’s a sizeable difference between this game and the top three this week because of pace and free throw rate. The hack-a-DeAndre Jordan is always looming, but there should also be a good deal of attempts from LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love.
Portland at Houston, Sunday: All of the threes, as these teams are first and second in three-point rate. Unfortunately for Houston, Dwight Howard is going to miss some time. It’ll be interesting to see how that impacts the team in these rankings. Well, in real life too. That’s probably more important.
The Bottom Five
Charlotte at Philadelphia, Saturday: Two of the least-efficient scoring teams, so you can only guess how they would do in a formula that favors offense. They scored okay in categories that work around scoring like net rating difference and opposing free throw rate.
Miami at Minnesota, Wednesday: Does not take into account Hassanity. This matchup did well in net rating difference, an ingredient that typically boosts a lot of matchups at the bottom, and dunks per 100 possessions. The opposite of Houston’s situation, it will be interesting to see how Minnesota ranks in the upcoming weeks as the team is getting healthy again.
New York at Brooklyn, Friday: After losing 16 straight, the Knicks have now won five of their last seven games. It would be huge for Atlanta, who can swap picks with Brooklyn, if they also defeat the Nets. Besides the lottery ball implications, this game also got a nice bump in free throw rate. Lots of talk about free throw rate this week.
Miami at San Antonio, Friday: One of the most interesting results over the last four weeks. San Antonio actually scores decent in the formula, penalized only in the highlight categories where they are last place in dunks and fifth-worst in fast break points per 100 possessions. It is Miami who the formula hates for playing slow, drawing and committing a lot of fouls and just struggling overall. Put the two teams together and they score okay in a lot of categories, excel in nothing, and score a 1.0 in pace.
Denver at Philadelphia, Tuesday: They either excelled or stunk in each category, scoring 6.0 or better in net rating difference, dunks, fast break points, and pace while scoring ones in net rating sum, offensive efficiency, assist-to-turnover ratio, and opponent free throw rate. Really weird to see polarizing scores like that.
Other Notes
Teams that are trending up in the Watchability ranks seem to be Cleveland, Phoenix, and Utah while teams trending down are Dallas, Boston, Indiana, and Orlando. Cleveland has been on the rise each week while Boston and Dallas have been the opposite.
Monday and Tuesday have an okay slates of games, but the rest of the week looks really good. Next week is a smaller sample of games, 27 total. We could be in for another week where a game ranks in the 80s, or one that is in the mid-30s.