Playoff Previews: Western Conference Finals
By Justin
Jan 21, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) prepares to shoot the ball in front of Houston Rockets guard Jason Terry (31) during the fourth quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors won 126-113. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
There’s still a disconnect between conventional wisdom and how stat-inclined folk view the Golden State Warriors. By a few different measures, they’re a dominant team, a level over league foes in bursts of scoring and tight defense. You might be able to stop their offense, but their defense on its own makes Golden State into a formidable playoff team. Using a team’s season average can be misleading because of all the parts involved in a roster, but that actually underrates them: they dismantle teams when Andrew Bogut is in the lineup on a level not since on a whole since the second three-peat Bulls or certain phases of the Shaq-era Lakers or the Garnett-era Celtics. Of course, we can reference an old philosophical tool: the sun has been coming up in the sky for a very, very long time, but it doesn’t mean it’ll continue to happen. At some point it will stop. The Warriors are a juggernaut until they’re not a juggernaut.
In statistics, there are a few ways to deal with the inevitable of the failure of predictions. Though even with conservative measures and more advanced predictive stats, there’s still a gulf between Golden State and the rest of the league. The Rockets have found a groove with a healthy Dwight Howard and a fully integrated Josh Smith, but they escaped a seven-game series where they were outscored by 3.2 points per game — and they had homecourt advantage. The Warriors are a better version of the Clippers, led by a virtuosic point guard, flanked by shooters, and with several all-defensive team caliber defenders.
Every team matched-up in a series with the Warriors starts with the thought, “We have to stop Curry,” as if it’s akin to cutting off the dragon’s head and rendering the rest of the body inert. But he was MVP for a reason, and there are no easy ways to stop him without huge leaks spring up elsewhere. A few days ago, I posted something on how Curry’s efficiency dropped about half as much as you’d expect based on the opponent’s defensive rating, but I made an error. What I’ve termed his “v-efficiency” statistic is actually quite normal and close to the league average elasticity of 1. It’s a little over 1, but his usage increases to compensate as the defenses get better[1. Quick explanation: I calculate the coefficient for a player’s offensive efficiency, or other stats, versus the opposing team’s adjusted defensive rating, via basketball-reference. It’s a way to see how a player’s game changes in response to the difficulty of the opponent.]
Using every game since the 2013 season including the playoffs, Curry’s v-stat for points per 100 possessions is 0.33. That’s better than Shaq and worse than Olajuwon — nothing special but the myth that Curry’s style can’t work against tough defenses isn’t true. In fact, Kobe’s v-points per 100 possession from 2001 to 2013 was 0.43 (the higher the number, the more your points decrease as the defenses get better.) Although Curry has no peers, Nash is sometimes a comparison for their similar size, shooting prowess, and passing flair. Nash also has no ring and has been criticized for what happened in the playoffs. However, it’s not his fault: looking at his seasons from 2005 to 2007, he had the lowest v-points per 100 possessions stat I have ever seen. His offense, in fact, measured by efficiency and volume, got better in the playoffs too. The problem with the Suns in the playoffs wasn’t Nash and their offense, as they had excellent offensive ratings even while facing tough defensive teams. This could bode well for Curry: you can be lithe and buoyed by skill and still excel among the giants even in the heat of the post-season.
Golden State’s weakness is something else. The key is Bogut: without him, they lack a huge defender who’s either useful enough on offense to deploy or a huge plus on defense. Speights is out, so that means David Lee will often big the first big man off the bench. Draymond Green’s a fantastic competitor, but he’s too small for center and even when he plays there they’ll need someone to replace him at power forward. If the Rockets strike strategically, it should be putting fouls on Bogut and going to war against David Lee or Ezeli. Even then, the game still isn’t over, and the Warriors are fine playing helter-skelter chaotic small ball. But it’s probably their best chance.
Going into the match-ups, the Rockets don‘t have any significant advantages overall. Howard has actually played well, but it’s not enough to offset differences elsewhere. The Warriors have a large cache of defenders to throw at Harden, including Klay, Iguodala, and other players, and Harden did not score well against the Warriors this season. However, we can’t divine patterns out of all this noise — it was only four games, and he was a lot better the previous season. The truth is that there’s probably no largely significant change with Harden against Golden State, other than the fact that they’ve been a great defense the past couple seasons. They have premier wing defenders for him and they could help aggressively to stymie his game with Green and Bogut, among others.
Houston’s best perimeter defender, Ariza, meanwhile, is a small forward and they give a lot of time to a lineup with Harden and Terry at the guard slots, making it tough to cover both Curry and Klay Thompson. They might be able to hide Terry on Harrison Barnes, or Iguodala, but that still means Harden is guarding Thompson, and you may not want him fighting through screens the whole game. This is where Beverley could be useful, but he’s only now removing his cast and the team does not believe he’ll appear in the conference finals. I’d describe Pablo Prigioni as a sneaky-good defender, but he’s one of the oldest players in the league and his forte is more about smart team defense. His Synergy stats versus ball handlers in the pick-and-roll were pretty decent for the full season, but his isolation stats were pretty miserable (He’s been better in the playoffs, however). Look for Prigioni to come up with a few steals versus the aggressive Warriors, but he’s a step too slow to check Curry.
The wild card for the series could be Josh Smith, who currently has a higher three-point percentage than Kyle Korver in the playoffs. Betting on Smith’s shooting to stay the course is only for fools, but his passing, ball handling, and defense gives Houston a multi-dimensional player to find the seams in Golden State’s game. In fact, when he’s nailing three-pointers, he turns into a rare gem: the rim protecting stretch big man. There are few players in NBA history who can consistently block shots while taking a significant number of three-point attempts and a few of those guys are poor overall defenders. In the modern NBA, this is the ultimate team-building asset, and there are really only a handful of players including Horry, Ibaka, LaFrentz, Marion, Odom, Rasheed, and Smith, who likes to take three-pointers who can’t make them. Additionally, Josh Smith, while a highly skilled shot blocker, is deficient in a few other areas on defense.
Josh Smith’s perfect form already exists, however: Draymond Green is Josh Smith on a good day. He’s a very good defender, nearly winning Defensive Player of the Year for the best defensive team in the league. He’s a good enough outside shooter too, committing defenses to pay attention to him outside the arc, which does not happen to Josh. He’s also a good ball handler and passer, mimicking Smith again. Using basketball-reference’s DBPM, which is by no means perfect, like any stat, but factors in blocks, steals, rebounding, and the team’s defensive rating, there are only eight players who have played at least 1500 minutes and averaged four three-point attempts per 100 possessions with a DBPM of 3 or higher. These are the ultimate glue guys and versatile stars, from Battier to LeBron and Horry to Pippen.
Table: Stretch Ace Defenders
The problem is that whatever Houston can do, Golden State can do better. James Harden, runner-up MVP, a scoring phenom? He finished behind Curry. Howard’s presence inside on defense? Bogut’s been better this season. A shootout from behind the arc? Tough to win that battle versus Curry and Thompson. Push the pace, unleash Brewer in transition? Golden State led the league in fast break points per game and that’s continued in the playoffs.
Using a few different measures, the series likely won’t be close. This is as much as a complete mismatch as you can get in the conference finals, but nothing in the NBA is guaranteed. I have the odds that the series will be Golden State in four or five games at nearly 55%, but anything is possible — even Josh Smith making his outside shots.
Golden State odds on winning: 92% (most common result: five games)