Top Playoff Performers: Chris Paul’s Ascendance, LeBron James’ Slide
With the NBA Finals still a few days away, it’s as good a time as any to reflect on the best playoff performers thus far. A useful (and simple) way of embarking on this exercise is to extend Kevin Ferrigan’s great February post on linear weights metrics.
The tables below provide Alternate Win Scores and Daily RAPM Estimates on both a per-minute and a cumulative basis through the first three rounds of the postseason. Players are sorted by AWS/Min and DRE/Min, with the top 30 displayed (minimum of 150 minutes played). For the complete data, see this Google Doc file.
A few points stand out:
First, Chris Paul ranks atop both per-minute metrics, providing further evidence that, common misperceptions aside, he has been a strong playoff performer. His 0.291 AWS/Min and 0.185 DRE/Min are on par with his season totals (0.295 and 0.179, respectively). Indeed, 2015 is his best playoff showing in a Clippers uniform, his highest AWS/Min since 2011, and his best DRE/Min since 2008.
Furthermore, while much has been made of the Clippers’ collapse, it would be unfair to pin the blame on Paul. According to Inpredictable, he’s tied for first in total win probability added and ranks second in “clutch” WPA.
As Paul takes a step forward, LeBron James heads in the opposite direction. He ranks 15th in AWS/Min and falls out of the top-30 in DRE/Min (he places 31st there). The 0.205 AWS/Min is his lowest since 2008, while the 0.025 DRE/Min is his worst since 2006.
James’s shooting is a critical factor in this decline, but it’s not the only issue. His 61 turnovers represent the second highest total in the playoffs, and his 0.11 turnovers/minute ties his career worst in 2006. Since DRE places greater emphasis on possessions (namely, steals and turnovers) than AWS does, we can see start to see glimpses of why his ranking differs between the two systems.
Similarly, AWS values rebounds more than DRE does. So James, who has the fifth highest rebounding total in the playoffs, fares better in the former. An even more notable example is his teammate, Tristan Thompson. As Kevin Yeung notes, Thompson’s standout skill is offensive rebounding. That he’s third in this category on a per-minute basis allows him to crack the top-30 in the AWS list.
Beyond these points, there are many other interesting insights brought forth by the linear weights metrics: Al-Farouq Aminu’s strong showing, the four Cavs in the AWS rankings, the four Warriors in the DRE rankings, and the absence of Klay Thompson in both systems. As the postseason reaches its final stage, we’ll see how the numbers change.