
Allow me to set the stage for this situation through the 140-characters-or-less of others:
Charlotte's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will need shoulder surgery and be sidelined six months, league source tells Yahoo Sports.
ā Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 5, 2015
This is important because:
Uh-oh. pic.twitter.com/7TgCe9nBxI
ā Yaya Dubin (@JADubin5) October 5, 2015
Which has typically meant:
Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets the last two seasons (via @AdiJoseph)
ā Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) October 5, 2015
With MKG: 61-53 (.535)
W/o MKG: 15-35 (.300)
Translating to:
Re-ran my Highly Plausible Win Projections redistributing MKG's minutes, projected wins drop from 42 to 38.
ā Andrew Johnson (@CountingBaskets) October 6, 2015
Ouch. In what was supposed to be a bounce-back season for Charlotte, there is doom and gloom before the first opening tip-off (which they appear to have already lost, at least if Cody Zeller is at midcourt).

Sure, MKG isnāt known for his shooting prowess. Despite a slow-but-steady rise in his True Shooting percentage each season, his Hunting Grounds are scattered across the midrange; in 195 professional games, MKG has attempted eighteen three-pointers. Eighteen. More than half of his shot attempts are coming at the rim, which is good. However, more than a quarter of his shots are coming from the dreaded 16ft-3pt arc range. But no no, Iām not here to decry his shooting; rather, Iād argue his offensive game was set to be a nice compliment to the rest of the core Hornets lineup:

Sure itās not perfect, but we are talking about an Eastern Conference team fighting for a playoff berth, not last seasonās Warriors. The midrange would have still been a bit too chaotic, but it would have been organized chaos: Al on the right, MKG on the left, Kemba around the elbows. Regardless, it wonāt become a reality this season. And hereās my point: the MKG injury actually opens up two spots in Charlotteās most used lineup. The lost wing defense means Charlotte needs to choose both Forward spots carefully. Theyāll need to balance shooting that fills in the coreās blanks, while trying to make up for some of the ball-stopper defense. If Kemba Walker-Nic Batum-Al Jefferson are the constants, which pair of remaining Hornets fit best?
Realistically, thereās roughly eightĀ players for these two spots.
Some Numbers
First, letās examine a couple of key stats for some of the likely Hornets forwards:

Sure, these are arenāt all the stats ā but they are a quick snapshot at some of the most MKG-relevant ones. The goal here is to have as much green (and as little red) as possible. For the Wing spot, itās really a question of mitigating loss rather than maximizing gain. From this reductionist perspective, the safest of the bunch is probably Jeremy Lamb; heās neither first or last in any category. Among Bigs, an initial glance puts Pyscho T on topā¦but that 132 ORtg is just a bit unsustainable. Itās pretty much a wash between Zeller and Williams ā a point here, a percentage there, they are pretty equal.
Result: Jeremy Lamb and Cody Zeller/Marvin Williams
Some Charts
Letās take a look at how these eight players use the court, TeamSPACE-style:

Since this isnāt a real lineup, overlap doesnāt really matter. What does matter is the diverse spatial locations each player occupies ā especially compared to Kemba, Nic, and Big Al. Thus, Brian Roberts is out; heās too redundant with Walker and Batum. Ditto for Lin, albeit on a smaller scale. Hairston and Daniels are very similar. While Hairston has a bit more 3pt area and Daniels a bit more midrange, either would be a welcome addition from deep, with Daniels being a slightly better compliment to Batumās activity. Then thereās Jeremy Lamb ā the other Jeremy from CharlotteāsĀ offseason. Lamb is an interesting dose of both ā not too much midrange and, given Charlotteās midrange tendencies, not too much from deep. Daniels and Lamb, followed by Hairston, are probably the front-runners here.

Welp. Despite being statistically similar, these three could not possibly have more distinct Hunting Grounds. Hansbrough scores more like a Center ā at the rim with a dash near the elbows, which is highly redundant with Al Jefferson. Cody Zeller shoots like a Poor Manās Blake Griffin ā mostly foul-line extended action, and not much else. Williams is the traditional Stretch 4, akin to a Poor Manās Ryan Anderson. Thus, the right choice here depends on the pairing at Small Forward.
Result:Ā Jeremy Lamb and Marvin Williams (primary), Troy Daniels and Cody Zeller (secondary)
Both statistically and spatially, Lamb and Williams seemingly work well as a tandem. They cover a lot of the 3-point line and enough midrange to keep defenses honest (while also giving Al room to work). On paper there is just enough defense and shooting to seemingly be successful. Although not as statistically impressive, Daniels and Zeller represent a riskier (and potentially better) alternative. Itās tempting to just take Lamb and Zeller, based on their stats; however, when considering Kemba and Jefferson enjoy patrolling the midrange, there would be just a bit too much activity there.
Further, while Roberts, Lin, Hairstron, and Hansbrough donāt fit well with the Charlotte core, they could actually fit well together. As a second unit, they make a good combination of scoring diversity. This seems counter-intuitive, regarding Lin. But given his high usage, a second team scoring catalyst (a la Jamal Crawford) may be his best fit with the Hornets.
But before we go ā thereās one glaring omission in all of this:
Frank Kaminsky has all the dance moves. https://t.co/VSjt1QFw9L
ā HoopsHype (@hoopshype) October 13, 2015
Oh yeah, their #1 draft pick. Not only do we not have college shot data readily available, the jump to the pros can be a bit tricky to model. However, given Layne Vashroās fantastic work, Kaminsky closest comp projects similar as Nick Collison, circa 2003. In his rookie season, Collison had a .570 True Shooting percentage on 15.5 usage. If Frank the Tank demonstrates some of that 3-point range from college, along with Collison-style efficiency, he may actually be the perfect blend of Zeller and Williams. On offense, at least.
Inevitably, MKG is damn-near impossible to replace. The pessimist treats this as a lost season. The optimist treats this as a opportunity to identify the other pieces to build around when MKG returns. Giving the opportunity to Jeremy Lamb or even Troy Daniels ā depending on the Big Man pairing! ā may be Charlotteās most calculated move.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.