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2016 Usage-adjusted Win Projections, Part 2

Oct 18, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) celebrates with C.J. McCollum (3) after making a free-throw to cut the Utah Jazz lead to one point during the fourth quarter of the NBA preseason game at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The Blazers won 116-111. Mandatory Credit: Godofredo Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 18, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) celebrates with C.J. McCollum (3) after making a free-throw to cut the Utah Jazz lead to one point during the fourth quarter of the NBA preseason game at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The Blazers won 116-111. Mandatory Credit: Godofredo Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Godofredo Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Godofredo Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

For methodology, see Part 1.

Hereā€™s the goods everyone ā€”Ā my 2016 Win Projections are below:


And hereā€™s a couple handy charts to helpĀ explain why my projections look like they do:

ā€œTop 10ā€: Blended rating above +5.0 per 100.
ā€œStarā€: Blended rating between +2.5 and +5.0
ā€œAbove Averageā€: Between 0.0 and +2.5
ā€œBelow Averageā€: Between -2.5 and 0.0
ā€œWaste of $ā€: Below -2.5

So yes, there were hours and hours of adjustments and tuning, yetĀ projections still look extremelyĀ close to Vegasā€™ numbers. All my win totals are within five of Pinnacle Sportsā€™ betting lines, except for eight teams:

8. Charlotte Hornets:
Wins vs Vegas: +5.9
Key stat: Cody Zellerā€™s 2015 RPM was +4.35 per 100.
Key discrepancy: A disproportionate amount of the Hornetsā€™ future success has beenĀ associated with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. While he is arguably their best player (+3.2), my projections actually giveĀ that title goes to Cody Zeller (+3.4) by a hair. Also I have Big Al regressing a little bit upwards to the mean, Nic Batum being an absolute stud in Box Plus-Minus, and the Hornets having just threeĀ players below replacement level (11thĀ best minutes distribution in the league).

7. Atlanta Hawks:
Wins vs Vegas: -6.1
Key stat: Tim Hardaway Jr and Dennis Schroderā€™s are fourth-last and fifth-last in my projected Wins Created (-1.9 and -1.8 respectively).
Key discrepancy: The Hawks project to give 24% of their precious minutes to those in the ā€œWaste of $ā€ category (aka ā€œDumpster Firesā€ aka ā€œBelow -2.5 per 100ā€). But RPM doesnā€™t know Mike Budenholzer exists.

6. Los Angeles Lakers:
Wins vs Vegas: -6.2
Key stat: The Lakers are first in expected minutes distributed to those in the ā€œBelow Averageā€ category, i.e. between -2.5 per 100 and 0.
Key discrepancy: Bettors tend to overrate the Lakers and Kobe Bryant, so itā€™s no big surprise that my projections see them more lowly. Their young talent look promising, but as Iā€™ve written before ā€“ the vast majority of rookies and sophomores donā€™t contribute positively. Also, the only LakerĀ I project to add net value against a 0.500 lineup is Roy Hibbert (+0.72 per 100).

5. Milwaukee Bucks:
Wins vs Vegas: -6.4
Key stat: Ex-Bucks Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudleyā€™s projected Wins created are +5.6 and +4.0 respectively.
Key discrepancy: Many fans think that the Bucks havenā€™t lost much and are on the upswing. While their young players are exciting and are improving, losing Zaza and Dudley makes RPM very skeptical over 82 games. Ā And, though I love him, John Hensonā€™s plus-minus stats were miserable in 2014 and 2015. This is a point of contention for box score stats and plus-minus stats. In fact, his RPM projection disagrees with my BPM projection more than any player in the league (except Pekovic):

buckssucks
buckssucks


4. Brooklyn Nets:
Wins vs Vegas: -7.2
Key stat: Brooklyn projects to give more of their available minutes to below-replacement level than any other team, at a ridiculous 47%.
Key discrepancy: Joe Johnson and Thaddeus Young project to be just good, not great. Brook Lopez has also recently up and down and injury-prone so heā€™s about average as well. Finally and sadly, Jarrett Jack is not a plus-minus darling. He projects to be one of their truly terrible players, at -3.4 per 100.


Warning: approaching ā€œWHAT THE?!?ā€ territory. Here are the 3 strangest results.

3. Boston Celtics:

Wins vs Vegas: +9.6

Key stats (Boston gets 2):

a) Boston projects to give a league-best 76% of minutes to players rating above zero.

b) By 2015 Real-Plus-Minus, Marcus Smart should have been rookie of the year, at +2.4 per 100.

Key discrepancy:

As I have been

opining

and

whining

about for over a month now,

Bostonā€™s roster is absolutely filled with very good players who are not stars

. Whether or not they all fit together is of course a different story. But as a start, my usage projections actually like their fit, netting them an extra win or two. And as you probably know, Amir Johnson *is* a plus-minus darling. Hereā€™s a brief overview of their roster:



2. Miami Heat:
Wins vs Vegas: -11.9
Key stat: Miamiā€™s roster estimates to use a combined 112% of possessions ā€“ this collective 12% the Heat needsĀ to shave off their usage is the most of any team.
Key discrepancy: First off: while Miami has some big names, they have big names of *old* players who havenā€™t really contributed in the last few years. All of their plus players are past their prime. The best per-100 player they have in my projections is Deng, at +1.44. Secondly, most of their big names were good in the past because they were able use a lot of possessions, which wonā€™t be happening as much this year since theyā€™ll be sharing floor time. Specifically, Wade, Amarā€™e and Bosh:

heatusagedrop
heatusagedrop

1. Portland Trailblazers:
Wins vs Vegas: +16.4
Key stats (Portland gets 4):
a)Ā Portlandā€™s combined projected usage is just 93%, the second-lowest in the league.
b) Damian Lillardā€™s Box-Plus-Minus the last three seasons was: +0.3, +3.5, and +5.2, and he just turned 25. My combined projection for him this season is +4.54, 14th-best in the league.
c)Ā C.J. McCollum and Al-Farouq Aminu project to contribute more than +2 points per 100 this season.
d) Portland projects to give just 5% of their available minutes to below-replacement players (5thĀ best in the league).
Key discrepancy: Ok, please donā€™t leave the Nylon Calculus website never to return. This oneā€™s the weirdest I know, but stick with me. Yes, Wes Matthews was good. LaMarcus Aldridge was very good ā€“ and Iā€™m not sure my Box Plus-Minus projections entirely capture how much he contributed to Lillardā€™s rating. But one thing is for sure ā€“ Lillard is a high-usage point guard who bothĀ puts up stats andĀ doesnā€™t have a bad defensive +/-.

To this end, my projections see him taking a 2015-Russell Westbrook type role this year: doing it all and filling a big void.