Freelance Friday: Paul Millsap and the Anti-Trillion

Freelance Friday is a semi-regular feature at Nylon Calculus where we solicit, accept and publish articles from the broader community in the interest of further democratizing the study of basketball analytics. This week’s post, on a measure of versatility, is from Devin Kharpertian. Devin is the managing editor & founding partner of The Brooklyn Game, YES Network’s web affiliate covering the Brooklyn Nets with a healthy mixture of statistical analysis, incisive reporting, and bemused irreverence[1. Brooklyn Game had one of my favorite series of basketball post in the last few years, where Devin got Andre Kirilenko to record what amounts to a Director’s Commentary track of Kirilenko’s reads and thought processes on various plays – SP]. Follow him on Twitter @uuords.

Much of what this site attempts to do is assess value of one kind or another, whether that’s something as under-researched as rim protection or silly as jump balls.[1. I maintain that Brook Lopez has yet to lose a jump ball this season, despite Matt’s evidence to the contrary.]

While watching Draymond Green tear apart some team last month, I began thinking about the value of guys that do absolutely everything that can be recorded statistically, at least by the basics. I pulled on this thread enough until I came up with a concept: the “anti-trillion,” which values a player doing as many different things in a single game at once.

For the uninitiated, a “trillion” in the NBA refers to a player that plays at least one second and does not do anything to impact a game’s box score. In the box score, the player’s line then reads their minutes played, followed by a bunch of zeros, hence “trillion.”

An anti-trillion, thus, is the opposite of that: you record an anti-trillion when you record at least one of every box score stat. That’s FG, FGA, 3P, 3PA, FT, FTA, ORB, DRB (and thus TRB), AST, STL, BLK, and PTS.[2. One quick note: though a pure trillion includes zero fouls and zero turnovers, an anti-trillion does not count these. In the way that a trillion rewards insignificance, an anti-trillion is about robustness: a player shouldn’t be penalized because he was good enough to avoid fouling someone or turning the ball over.]

It is, at heart, a frivolity, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t descriptive. Triple-doubles only require you to do three things: pass the ball, rebound the ball, and shoot the ball.[3. Or, if you’re Hassan Whiteside, hunt down anyone who might shoot in the paint.] Even the more expansive and insanely difficult 5×5 only asks you to do a couple more things defensively.

But an anti-trillion requires you to do everything. You have to play some disruptive defense. You have to make three-pointers. You have to get to the free throw line. You have to rebound on both ends. Some players can dominate within five feet of the basket, others can dominate within 25 feet of one particular basket, but an anti-trillion requires you to have an impact everywhere.

Like the triple-double or 5×5, recording an anti-trillion doesn’t automatically relegate you to superstar status. Some legends can go their entire careers without putting up an anti-trillion. Shaquille O’Neal blew his only shot at an anti-trillion by not recording a block or a foul at some point on this fateful night in 1996:

Stephen Curry, who’s in the midst of arguably the greatest season of all time, has only recorded three anti-trillions this year, because he’s only had five games with a blocked shot. The aforementioned Hassan Whiteside would never get a trillion, because that would require him to shoot three-pointers and pass the ball.

It is restrictive. Only 11 players have recorded 20 or more trillions since the beginning of the 2013-14 season, and they’re all either All-Stars or Josh Smith.[4. SMOOVE!]

In this sense, the anti-trillion rewards across-the-board versatility in impact, in a way that hasn’t really been rewarded in the public domain before. Think about it: if you’ve got a block, a steal, a rebound on both sides of the floor, an assist, a three-pointer, and got to the line, right there that’s six plays you’ve had an impact on. And players never end with just one number in each category.

Here’s a look at the top six players on the anti-trillion list since the beginning of the 2013-14 season.[5. Thanks to Seth for compiling and including the totals below.]

LeBron James and Draymond Green, 27: Green was the one that originally got me looking into this, so it makes sense that he lands somewhere among the best players. LeBron’s no surprise either. James’s impact as an otherworldly scorer inside the paint is the biggest thing that separates these two guys[3. “Other than that giant hole in the rudder, the Titanic is pretty sturdy, boss!”], and since both can score regularly, it makes sense they’d end up around the same number.

Kawhi Leonard, 28: Already you can see the value, and the archetype, of the anti-trillion: the first three players mentioned are three of the league’s best, most versatile forwards with top-flight defensive reputations.

Jimmy Butler, 29: As Derrick Rose falls out of favor in Chicago, Jimmy Butler fills in the gaps. He’s improved as a three-point threat and distributor over the past few years, and his increased workload also means more trips to the free throw line.

James Harden, 36: To be honest, this is not someone I expected to show up anywhere near this list, and he’s far and away the second-best! Harden’s reputation as a porous defender precedes him, so the notion that he’d gobble up enough games where he had an impact on two defensive possessions is… surprising, to say the least. He’s the only guy in the top rankings who’s a defensive negative. But Harden picked up nearly two steals per game last season and a career-high 60 blocks, which led to an NBA season-high 20 anti-trillions last year.

Paul Millsap, 42: There should be more ways to value how good Paul Millsap is, so selfishly, I’m glad I found one. Millsap is one of the league’s most versatile players: a killer defender who can hit three-pointers and score inside. He’s never quite been thought of as a superstar, but there’s a huge value in having Millsap on the floor to fill in those gaps.

Also, some potential up-and-comers in the anti-trillion category:

Kristaps Porzingis: Naturally. Porzingis has the potential to change how the game is scouted: how in the world do you stop a 7-foot-3 player who can put the ball on the floor and hit three-pointers? [5. The Nets did a pretty good job pushing him around into a 5-for-17 night. But the physicality will only make him stronger. So that won’t last long.] Porzingis already has seven anti-trillions through the first half of his first season, which puts him on the same pace as the Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard. He’s also 20 years old, and the Knicks will have control over his rights for the next eight years. His ceiling is terrifying.

Robert Covington: Covington’s picked up 12 anti-trillions in just 110 games, despite not getting the same kind of minutes as the other guys on the list. It remains to be seen if he can do it on an NBA-quality team, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Emmanuel Mudiay: Okay, this one’s super-early, because Mudiay missed a bunch of games and has been one of the league’s worst shooters. But if he can ever fix that part of his game, he’s got huge potential as an anti-trillionite: his size and athleticism means he gets rebounds, blocks, and steals in bunches. It doesn’t hurt that he’s got a leash longer than Kristaps in Denver to develop.

Check out the complete list of anti-trillions[1. As well as the more mundane “box score stuffers who recorded at least one of each of the 5 basic categories.] over the last season below