Fantasy Baseball: Boston Red Sox 2016 Fantasy Outlook

Boston Red Sox 2016 Fantasy Outlook:

No team in baseball made more of a splash in the offseason than the Red Sox did. They got the big ticket pitcher in David Price, and they crossed off every item on their offseason to-do list. They may be the only team that did so.

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That’s great, you say, but how will that affect my fantasy team? We have you covered. Whether you play in standard leagues, deep leagues, multi-position leagues, dynasty leagues, or anything in between, we will give you the rundown on the players who will be starting at each position. We will also give you a hint of where they should be drafted.

Just in case you missed any:
Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox 2016 Projected Starting Lineup:

C: Blake Swihart (.274, 5HR, 31 RBI in 84 games)
1B: Hanley Ramirez (.249, 19HR, 53 RBI in 105 games)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (.291, 12HR, 42 RBI in 93 games)
SS: Xander Bogaerts (.320, 7HR, 81 RBI, 10SB)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (.245, 10HR, 47RBI in 126 games)
LF: Rusney Castillo (.253, 5HR, 29RBI in 80 games)
CF: Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.249, 10HR, 43RBI in 74 games)
RF: Mookie Betts (.291, 18HR, 77RBI, 21SB)
DH: David Ortiz (.273, 37HR, 108RBI)

Blake Swihart is best left for two catcher leagues with more than ten teams. Ryan Hanigan and Christian Vazquez will still see some spot starts, and Swihart’s offense won’t help anyone’s fantasy team. Could he get better? Sure, but he was widely regarded as a defensive catcher in the minors as well.

Hanley Ramirez makes the move to first base, which does hurt his fantasy value. He won’t put up the big numbers that the elite first basemen will. He will still carry OF eligibility in some leagues, which makes him marginally more valuable. He is worth carrying in standard leagues in which he has OF eligibility, but he likely won’t be a starter for your team unless he gets hot. He has been known to have the occasional hot streak, so he can be a valuable bench piece.

Pedroia is no longer a top tier second baseman, but if he is going to hit .290 with double digit homers and steals, he could be a standard league starter. For now, he projects as a starter in larger leagues only, or a MI slot in ten team leagues. Though being in this lineup could help him out a little.

Bogaerts will hurt you in leagues that count errors, but with a lack of depth at shortstop, Bogaerts is going to be a starter in all standard leagues. His numbers are good, but his counting stats are not great. Still, he was third in the AL in hits last year, and he is still developing his power. He will be among the first five shortstops off the board in most leagues.

Sandoval was largely miserable last year. He is no longer worth a roster spot in standard leagues. He is best left for deeper leagues, or in middle sized leagues as a late round flier. That said, he is only 29 years old. Keep an eye on him this spring and early in the season. He could be one of the April pick ups that propel you towards a league title.

For those of you that thought Rusney Castillo would be the next Yasiel Puig, you were mistaken. That’s not to say that he is a bad player, he just won’t be a fantasy stud. Castillo is best left for deeper leagues. He will likely be taken in standard leagues, but don’t forget that he is 28 years old. He will improve some, but he won’t be the kind of guy that can win you a fantasy title. Take someone with higher upside.

Bradley is a defensive stud whose offense is starting to pick up. He is still only 25 years old. It is not unreasonable to expect him to get close to 20 homers and to pick up a dozen or so steals. That won’t merit him a slot in most standard leagues, but in leagues of 12 or more, he is at least worth a bench slot.

Only four players had a 20 homer/20 steal season in 2015. That’s it. And no, Mike Trout was not one of them. Betts. came close last year, and he is still only 23 years old. Players like that are huge in roto leagues. Betts is a very strong bet to go 20/20 this year, which makes him a solid pick in the fourth or fifth round of standard league drafts. If you are a dynasty owner looking towards the future, he is worth taking even earlier than that.

Ortiz is bound to slow down at some point, right? RIGHT? People have been predicting Papi’s demise for a while now, and while he won’t hit 50 homers or drive in 150 anytime soon, 30-100 is not out of reach. The only knock on him is that he is only eligible at the UTIL position. If you only have one UTIL slot in your league, he can handcuff you. Still, there aren’t a lot of guys that will go 30-100 anymore in the middle rounds. Ortiz can fit that bill.

Brock Holt is not a starter, but he can fill in at just about every position. His position flexibility and the fact that he will still see a handful of starts per week make him worth a look in most leagues of 12 or more teams.

Next: How Will The Rotation Shape Up Behind Price?

Boston Red Sox 2016 projected pitching rotation:

David Price (18-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 225 K with Detroit/Toronto)
Clay Buchholz (7-7, 3.26 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 107K in 18 starts)
Rick Porcello (9-15, 4.92 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 149K)
Eduardo Rodriguez (10-6, 3.85 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 98K in 21 starts)
Joe Kelly (10-6, 4.82 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 110 K)
Craig Kimbrel (4-2, 2.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 87K in 59.1 IP, 39/43 saves)

Before you go saying that Price will struggle in the AL East, consider that he spent most of his career there. Also, his ERA and WHIP were better with Toronto than Detroit last year. No matter how you look at it, Price is still an ace, and will still be one of the first five pitchers off the board in any league. Want more of a reason to draft Price high? In his 11 career starts at Fenway Park, he is 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA. Draft him with confidence. He is a candidate for 20 wins, and should hit 200 strikeouts again without a problem.

Buchholz was solid when healthy, and turned in his best season of his career so far. Pitching behind Price could also help him. Buchholz isn’t a high strikeout guy, but he could be around 150 in a full season, and should win at least a dozen games. He is a good addition to the middle of your standard league rotation in the middle rounds of your draft.

Porcello had the worst year of his career last season. Was it just a speed bump? Who knows, but I wouldn’t trust him in any league of 12 teams or less. You can do better. Keep an eye on him to see if playing on a winning team helps him out, but unless he has a great spring, stay away for now.

Rodriguez won 10 games as a 22 year old rookie last year, and the team has high hopes for him again. They won’t put a lot of pressure on him, but there is no reason for him not to win at least a dozen games this year. He is not a high strikeout guy, but on the high end, he could come close to the numbers of Buchholz. He can be taken a little higher in keeper/dynasty formats, but he is a solid end of the rotation guy in standard leagues.

Remember Joe Kelly’s breakout 2013 season in St. Louis? Neither do Red Sox fans. His numbers have bordered on awful with the Sox, and he is showing little or no signs of improvement. He is likely a temporary fix right now, and if Henry Owens has a good spring, there is a chance that Kelly will start the year off in the minors.

The trade for Craig Kimbrel could be just as important as the signing of David Price. Kimbrel took a step back for a bad San Diego team last year, but his peripheral numbers were still good. Don’t be surprised if the saves in excess of 50 games and gets close to 100 strikeouts. He will likely be the first closer off the board once again, but his numbers should be better than last year.

Next: What Prospects Are Worth Watching?

We will take a look at a few prospects that could crack the majors for Boston this year, and in what type of leagues you should be looking for them in. Let’s get started!

Brian Johnson, LHP: Johnson may have jumped Henry Owens for a ticket to the majors, but that will depend on what kind of spring each of them have. The seat is warm under both Kelly and Porcello. If the Red Sox think they have a chance this year – and they do if you go by the signings – they aren’t going to let the rotation hold them back. Johnson put up a 9-6 record, but a miniscule 2.53 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 96 innings at AAA Pawtucket last year. His one major league start in September didn’t go well, but his minor league numbers show that he is ready.

Henry Owens, LHP: If early starts are any indication, Owens will begin the season in Boston. His first stint in the majors (4-4, 4.57 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 50K in 63 innings over 11 starts) wasn’t great, but that can be expected from a 23 year old on a losing team. Owens has a lot of upside, and if you are in a dynasty league, there is a lot to warrant taking him fairly early. Mixed leaguers should wait to see if he earns a job, and how he pitches once he does. Those of you with deeper benches may want to take a chance on him at the end of the draft.

Deven Marrero, SS: Marrero has the defensive tools to make a difference, but his offense (.256, 6HR, 29RBI in 375 at bats at AAA Pawtucket) leaves something to be desired. Marrero would likely need an injury at the big league level to get a promotion. The Sox aren’t going to call him up to sit the bench. He should be on the radar of you deep leaguers just in case he gets a call.

Sean Coyle, INF: Coyle is blocked by Pedroia and Sandoval, but neither of them have been the healthiest of players over the last couple of years. Coyle has the bat to help the Sox in the middle of the lineup if they need it. He could end up being a Brock Holt type player if injuries ravage the team. Coyle did have some injury issues last year, hitting just .193 in 52 minor league games. Still, he had a great 2014, and will be right back on the radar with a good spring.

Edwin Escobar, LHP: Escobar came over along with Rodriguez in the Jake Peavy deal, and while Rodriguez hit the ground running, Escobar struggled. He amassed a 5.07 ERA at AAA Pawtucket jockeying between the bullpen and the rotation. He is only worth a look in deep leagues if the Red Sox get desperate for a starter.

Yoan Moncada, 2B: I usually won’t do this, but Moncada is a special case. The Red Sox gave him a ton of money coming out of Cuba last year, and he didn’t disappoint hitting .278 with 8HR and 38RBI in A ball. He could be moved to center field or shortstop, depending on where the Sox need him. They insist that he won’t be up this year, but you can bet that if injuries strike and/or Bradley struggles, Moncada could find the majors. Those of you in dynasty leagues should be taking him between the 5th-8th round, depending on how highly you value prospects.

Next: Baltimore Orioles 2016 Fantasy Preview

Stay tuned for the rundown of every MLB team before Opening Day!