Baltimore Orioles: 2016 Fantasy Preview

A.L. East

Baltimore Orioles

Must Own Fantasy Player: Chris Davis

Potential Fantasy Bust: Manny Machado

Prospect to Watch: Hunter Harvey

The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the most competitive teams in baseball over the last few seasons, but have failed to get over the hump and carry out a deep postseason run. Armed with one of the best lineups in MLB, the key to their season will once again come down to the starting pitching. So, what fantasy expectations should we look for from the ball club in 2016?

The story of the O’s offseason was, were they going to be able to retain Chris Davis. After weeks of drama they finally came to an agreement, and Davis is primed for another monster season back in orange and black. Now some will see him listed as the must own and think I am too confident in him, but the stats don’t lie.

He has mashed 126 HR, and driven in 327 RBI the last three seasons, making him one of the few remaining fantasy players that provide elite power. Detractors will overlook his 47 HR last season and point to his career high 208 K, while he certainly is not afraid to swing and miss, the .262 AVG and .319 BABIP are optimistic markers. His subpar 2014 can be attributed to his lack of Adderall and thus suspension, because it is not a coincidence that the years he has gotten his prescription cleared by MLB, he has subsequently raked.

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The next O’s infield centerpiece, Manny Machado, gave us a glimpse of in 2015 of just how talented he truly is. He was is one of the few players in the league that fans would pay to see play offense and defense. His power was always there, but it was surprising to see him reach his power upside so quickly.

It is the classic case of his doubles turning into homers, and that should not change next season, even though he will probably not reach the 35 HR bar it set in 2015. But, there are some fantasy concerns. Machado played every game last season, reaching a career high 713 at bats which drove up his counting stats. Owners need to remember that Machado suffered two devastating knee surgeries before he even turned 22-years-old, so asking for another 150+ games is tough.

There is also the question of where did the 20 SB come from? He attempted a career high 28 stolen base attempts last season, so it is hard to bank on another 20 SB this season with the thunder in the lineup returning behind him. Machado will more than likely be one of the best fantasy talents again next season, but owners need to expect some regression across the board.

The rest of Baltimore’s infield has two players moving in opposite directions fantasy wise. Jonathan Schoop arguably has the most pop out of any second basemen in MLB, but his health and plate approach have prevented his breakout. He showed some signs of improvements last season, and he shapes us as one the best late middle round MI picks this season.

From 2011-2013, J.J. Hardy was one of the best power SS in baseball. Unfortunately, nagging back injuries has sapped him of his power and he has not eclipsed more than 10 HR the last two seasons. He has to be ignored until he can prove that he can possibly rebound.

Following the nagging health theme, Adam Jones had a rough 2015 as he was slowed by injuries all season as well. Jones has been rock solid over the last six seasons, and even though his speed days may be left in the pass, he still serves as a solid offensive fantasy threat. Owners should welcome the chance of getting him at a discount in 2016, and can expect another 25 HR/90 RBI campaign again next season.

The corner outfield spots are going to be manned by questions marks next season. Hyun-soo Kim was brought over from Korea, where the O’s will look for him to continue to be the OBP machine that he showed in the KBO. He may lead off for the ball club as well, which would even further his fantasy value, making him well worth a late round flier in drafts this spring.

In right field, Baltimore looks to possibly employ a Henry Urrutia/Nolan Reimold/Joey Rickard platoon, so it is safe to say that the position can be ignored at the draft as neither of these options have proven to be a fantasy worthy.

With the Davis drama extending longer than anyone thought, Baltimore brought in Mark Trumbo as a contingency plan. Trumbo struggled last season, but the power is still legitimate. With steady at bats in Camden Yards and in the middle of the O’s lineup, this will prove to be his best chance at being fantasy relevant. Make him a late round flier.

Whether fantasy owners believe in players performing better in contract years or not, Matt Wieters, took that gamble on himself this offseason by accepting the qualifying offer from the O’s to restore his free agency value in 2016. His TJ injury has slowed him the last two seasons, but he was once a perennial 20+ HR threat. With his health not in question, at least for now, he should be one of the most popular buy low candidates this season for owners who wait to fill in their C spot.

The Orioles rotation will once again be in question heading into a season, as they are banking on rebounds or breakouts from just about every starter on the staff. Chris Tillman was brutal last season as his ugly peripherals finally caught up to him, so owners are better off investing elsewhere next season. Ubaldo Jimenez was decent for the first half of the season, but faded, serving as just another reason to skip him on draft day as well. Owners can skip Miguel Gonzalez as well thanks to his limited upside.

The only two fantasy options that are worth selecting from the O’will be, Kevin Gausman and Yovani Gallardo. Gausman has huge upside, but has failed to put it all together in one season. His arm is electric enough to entice owners, so he should be a late round SP4 or SP5 pick. Gallardo has been able to survive his K decline be enticing more ground balls, and he will have to do that in order to succeed in the east. If fantasy owners trust his new pitching approach, he is not a terrible SP5 selection this spring.

Baltimore’s bullpen should certainly not be a problem with Zach Britton closing out ballgames, and Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens in set up roles. Britton is a bona fide top-5 fantasy RP after posting another incredible season. O’Day is terrific in Holds leagues and Givens is one of the most underrated relievers in baseball and a name to watch moving forward.

The O’s top prospect designation has usually been attached to Dylan Bundy since he was drafted, but arm troubles have completely derailed his rise. He is out of minor league options and ticketed for the bullpen. Which makes, Hunter Harvey, a name to watch as he emerged last season in A ball and looks the part of a potential solid big league starter. He has not pitched higher than A ball, so the O’s will give him time to develop, but if he excels he could force his way to the big league roster.

Next: St. Louis Cardinals Jedd Gyorko: Now a Draftable Option in 2016?

The Orioles will score their fair share of runs in 2016, but the team’s success will once again rest on the shoulders of the pitching. They have plenty of fantasy assets, so they are going to be a team to watch, but it remains to be seen how they will shape up in a stacked A.L. East.

Looking for more team previews?

NL West: L.A. Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, New York Mets

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs

A.L. West: Oakland A’s, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros

A.L. Central: Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals

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