Tampa Bay Rays: 2016 Fantasy Preview

A.L. East

Tampa Bay Rays

Must Own Fantasy Player: Chris Archer

Potential Fantasy Bust: Logan Forsythe

Prospect to Watch: Blake Snell

The Tampa Bay Rays will look to bounce back in 2016, after posting another sub .500 season. Everyone knows their financial limits, but they do have some quality fantasy assets. The division will be a dog fight once again this season, so what should some fantasy expectations be for the Rays heading forward?

The core of the Rays squad will once again come down to their starting pitching. Lead by Chris Archer, the Rays’ rotation has the potential to be one of the better staffs in the league. Archer always showed flashes of his arm talent, but finally put it all together last season. His 3.23 ERA, 252 K, and 2.90 FIP are all tremendous stats and should be repeatable next season. Make him one of the first ten SP selected this spring.

Following Archer will be the two intriguing arms of, Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly, who both shape up as nice mid-round SP candidates. Odorizzi showed solid improvement last season in limiting his walk rate and posting steady K numbers. He has SP3 upside, but is a great SP4 value.

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Smyly was sidelined most of the 2015 season with arm troubles, but over his 12 starts last season he was terrific. He showed better strikeout stuff and simply looked better on the mound after the Rays did not throw him out there before he was ready coming off his shoulder scare. He is going to be a popular sleeper candidate in drafts, and his stuff last season looks like it has sharpened to the point where he is primed for a breakout.

The backend of the rotation will more than likely be filled out by Matt Moore and Erasmo Ramirez. Moore was once of the better young arms in baseball but TJ surgery derailed his rise. His velocity dip and injury concerns are red flags, but he did end the season well. He is nothing more than a SP5 flier though. Ramirez was one of the better waiver wire gems last season, but his limited upside hurts his value in a deep pitching pool this season.

The biggest bugaboo for the Rays has been their inability to generate consistent offensive production. They still have mainstay, Evan Longoria, manning the hot corner, but long gone are the days of him being a fantasy juggernaut. He has quietly played at least 160 games the last three seasons, but the power has begun to diminish.

He did hit 21 HR last season, but that comes as a decent drop from the 32 he hit in 2013. His RBI numbers will remain capped by the Rays lack of a supporting class, so his value is slipping. The third base position is one of the most loaded positions in fantasy baseball this season, so all signs point to Longoria slowly falling out of the top-10 3B this season. Draft accordingly.

The only other real effective offensive producer for the Rays last season was, Logan Forsythe. No that is not a misprint, as the career utility man broke out last season mashing 17 HR and posted a .804 OPS. He had a career season out of basically nowhere, and that is the reason why he listed as a possible bust candidate. He struck out less and showed a better eye at the plate, but can he really repeat 17 HR and a .281 AVG again? Owners should expect more a, .260 AVG/10-15 HR/65 RBI, type of line.

Both shortstop and first base will more than likely be platoon situations as a, James Loney/Steve Pearce combo will be at first and Brad Miller/Tim Beckham combo will man short. Loney is strictly an AVG producer at first base, so he can be ignored. Pearce broke out with the O’s, but has fallen back to earth, so his power potential should not be chased in his current situation.

Miller has yet to reach the ceiling that scouts thought he was capable of reaching, but with ample playtime could be a 15 HR/15 SB producer. The AVG and strikeout woes however, should cause him to be ignored on draft day. Beckham was lauded as a top prospect for the Rays for some time, but did not impress last season with the big league club. He should be ignored as well.

The biggest news that came from Rays’ camp this offseason was the trade that brought in Corey Dickerson from the Rockies. Dickerson’s Coors Field splits have been discussed at nauseam, but his pure power is legit. Coors concerns will drive down his draft day value, but there will come a time where passing up on a potential 25+ HR performer will seem silly. He is worth the late round flier this spring.

If your fantasy league rewards points for defensive highlights, Kevin Kiermaier, should be a first round pick. He does not have a ton of fantasy upside, but none of his peripheral stats lead anyone to believe that a, .260 AVG/10 HR/40 RBI/20 SB/.715 OPS, is out of the question. He is a nice OF4 or OF5.

As things sit right now, Desmond Jennings, will still have a starting job in left field. His leash has been shortened mightily as the Rays have plenty of in house options that could take his job. His fantasy glory seems to be well in the past, and it safe to say that owners have lost patience waiting for his breakout. Ignore him on draft day.

The Rays often use their DH spot as a revolving door, but Logan Morrison seems to be slotted there to begin the season. He did bounce back with 17 HR over a career high 146 games played, but his abysmal .225 AVG and .685 OPS, are clear indicators that he does not have the fantasy upside that owners have waited to see. It is time to turn the page on him in fantasy baseball.

Curt Casali will be the starting catcher and did notch 10 HR last season. But, he has never shown to be any type of offensive threat in his career, so fantasy owners can safely ignore him this season.

The Rays bullpen did take a hit with the departure of Jake McGee this offseason, but Brad Boxberger will look to repeat his success last season closing games for the Rays. Fantasy owners may chase his league high 41 SV last season, but there are some red flags. He suffered a K dip, an increase in BB, and posted a 4.26 FIP, which should lead owners to think that he allowed way too much traffic on the base paths last season. He belongs in the lower portion of the mid-tier of RP.

The Rays certainly have a lot of talent in their rotation, but they do have their fair share of health concerns. This could open the door for stud prospect, Blake Snell, to step in and fill the void. Snell has some of the nastiest stuff you will see in the minors and thoroughly dominated last season. With a little more polish, he could force his way to the big leagues this season and would become a must own fantasy pickup.

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The Rays will need their rotation to lead the ball club once again in 2016, and they will need someone to step up on the offensive side of the ball in order to compete in the division. They have been counted out before, so no one should be surprised if they could exceed expectations again in 2016.

Looking for more team previews?

NL West: L.A. Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, New York Mets

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs

A.L. West: Oakland A’s, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros

A.L. Central: Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals

A.L. East: Baltimore Orioles

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