Fantasy Baseball 2016 Outfield Rankings 10-1

The top-10 outfield pool is rich with talent. Some of these players are worth a first-round pick, others aren’t. But they are all very valuable.

Other positions: Catcher (10-1), First Base (20-11), (10-1), Second Base (15-11), (10-1), Shortstops (15-11), (10-1), Third Base (20-11), (10-1), Outfield (50-21), (20-11)

The final group of outfielders is the best group. There are sure-fire first rounders that you would regret not drafting. The others are worth a pick in the second or third round. I believe I took risks with some of the players I put on this list. One or two had their breakout season last year, but are likely to repeat that performance this year. The power is present and some have speed to go along with that.

I use a couple of different of criteria when developing my rankings. I look at their 2015 performance, where they finished on the Player Rater, their career performance and if this past season was an outlier, their surroundings (lineup support) and where I think they project this season. Some of it may be subjective, especially the projections, but I try to keep it in line with other fantasy sites.

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The stats I use for the projections are runs, home runs, RBI, steals and batting average. I know there are leagues that use OBP or OPS instead of average, but they are in the minority. I will keep it for the majority that use ESPN standard five categories. I do factor in hits though because it more or less affects average (or OBP).

Here are my top 10 outfielders for the 2016 season.

Next: No. 10 Ryan Braun

Whatever your opinion is of him, Ryan Braun was a mainstay in fantasy baseball. He finished as the No. 9 outfielder on the Player Rater. He hit 25 home runs, 84 RBI and .285 with 24 steals in 140 games. He made the All-Star game after a two-year absence.

It was a big comeback after the disappointing 2014 season. He hit a career-low .266 average with 19 homers, 81 RBI and 11 steals. I wrote about Braun and the probabilty he tacks onto the success he had last season here.

He made a lot of improvements at the plate. His walk rate rose over two percent, but his strikeout rate went up 0.7 percent. Braun hit more ground balls and fewer fly balls last season. The good thing is that his HR/FB went up just under seven percent. He had a 36.0 hard hit rate and 79.1 contact rate.

While he isn’t 30-plus home runs with a .300 average anymore, Braun can easily hit 25 homers with a .285 average. He still has the speed, so a 20/20 season isn’t out of the question. The only thing is that it may be his ceiling instead of his floor.

Next: No. 9: Nelson Cruz

After not breaking 30 home runs from 2010 to 2013, Nelson Cruz had back-to-back 40-home run seasons. After hitting 40 home runs with the Baltimore Orioles in 2014, he hit 44 in his first year with the Seattle Mariners. He had 93 RBI and a .302 average. Cruz was the sixth-best outfielder on the Player Rater.

No one thought he would be able to repeat his performance in 2014, especially when he signed with the Mariners. Safeco Field is not known to be a hitter-friendly park. He was able to hit over .300 for the first time since 2010 and played part of the year with a sports hernia.

Cruz has played over 150 games in the last two years, but minor injuries have flared up sporadically. That with the slow approach of Father Time have fantasy owners hesitant on drafting Cruz. He had a 25.0 strikeout rate, up almost five percent from 2014. His hard hit rate stayed the same, but his fly ball rate dropped seven percent.

The Mariners made a lot of improvements to the roster in the offseason. The team signed Nori Aoki, Leonys Martin and Adam Lind to support Cruz and Robinson Cano. Because of the signings, Cruz is likely to hit more as the designated hitter, which should cut down on the injury risk.

Next: No. 8: A.J. Pollock

A.J. Pollock is one of the outfielders I’m out on a limb with this list. Pollock was a 17th-round pick last season and hit a combined 17 home runs in his previous three seasons. He finished as the No. 1 outfielder on the Player Rater. He hit 20 home runs, 76 RBI and .315 with 39 steals. He would have likely had this kind of performance in 2014, but it was shortened by a broken hand. I wrote about the possibility of a repeat season here.

He led all center fielders in runs scored (111), batting average (.315) and hits (192). He had a miniscule 13.2 strikeout rate with a 7.9 walk rate. His ground ball and fly ball rates dropped and his line drive rate went up over six percent. He hit 39 doubles and six triples.

Pollock was much of a pull hitter, only a 24.4 opposite field hit percentage. He was very patient at the plate, only a 6.9 swinging strike percentage. His 30.8 O-Swing percentage was good for 24th-lowest among hitters with at least 650 plate appearances.

Hitting in front of Paul Goldschmidt will definitely help his fantasy value. I project that Pollock with have a 20/40 season with 185 hits and a .301 average. As the Arizona Diamondbacks leadoff hitter, he will have plenty of opportunities to get on base and score.

Next: No. 7: Mookie Betts

After a good showing in his first 52 games (five home runs, 18 RBI and .291), Mookie Betts exploded in 2015. He finished No. 11 among outfielders on the Player Rater with 18 home runs, 77 RBI and a .291 average with 21 steals. My colleague Brad Kelly wrote about the possibility of Betts being a first-round pick here. I wouldn’t say that, but he isn’t that far off.

Kelly made the comparison that Betts could be this year’s Pollock. And that I agree with. He had a 0.56 BB/K ratio. 38.2 ground ball rate and 42.4 fly ball rate. He became a little more free swinging last season. He had a 26.2 O-Swing rate and 5.4 swinging strike rate, both increased from 2014. His contact rate decreased about two percent, but that is expected to happen with the increase in playing time.

While the Boston Red Sox offense struggles greatly, Betts was one of the few highlights on this team. With steals hard to come by, drafting Betts in the third round as a possible 20/20 player is a good idea. With his .479 slugging percentage and 52.8 medium hit rate, Betts has great gap power.

In the hitter-friendly American League East parks, he will post a slugging percentage over .500.

Next: No. 6: Starling Marte

Starling Marte is one of two Pittsburgh Pirates outfielders. He posted career bests across the board. He hit 19 home runs, 81 RBI and .287 with 30 steals (in 40 attempts) in 153 games. I wrote about Marte being a top-five outfielder in December. He just missed that projection, but not by much.

If you take out the power numbers, his 2014 and 2015 look very similar. His stole the same amount of bases, his 2014 average was higher and hit one more double in 2015. The only major difference I see is that his strikeout rate went down 4.6 percent without changing much at the plate. He had a 40.4 O-Swing percentage, 13.7 swinging strike and 75.8 contact percentages.

I do expect Marte to break 20 home runs to go along with 25 to 30 steals. His average will continue to drop if he continues to swing at everything in sight. I expect a .282 average as a fifth-round pick. Marte will finish inside the top 10 among outfielders on the Player Rater again.

Next: No. 5: Jose Bautista

Man, this Toronto Blue Jays offense is insane. I’m pretty sure I ranked a Blue Jay at every position. I even had another Blue Jay in the later outfield rankings. Jose Bautista posted his first 40-home run season since 2011. He also had 114 RBI and a .250 average as the No. 10 outfielder on the Player Rater.

He continues to walk more than he strikeouts, 16.5 walk and 15.9 strikeout rates, which contributed to his .377 on-base percentage. His batted ball percentages bounced back greatly. He had a 37.3 ground ball and 48.8 fly ball rates, both better than career averages. He is solely a pull hitter, 53.3 pull hit rate, fourth-highest among qualified hitters.

There have been times that injuries have plagued his season. He played in 150-plus games in the last two seasons. In the previous three seasons, he played in 118, 92 and 149 games. I do expect him to miss upwards of 20 games, so adjust your team accordingly.

With the lineup Toronto boasts, Bautista will have another great season. If he can stay healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 40 home runs. However, that won’t be the case. I expect 33 home runs, 94 RBI and a .260 average.

Next: No. 4: Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton‘s 2015 was cut short due to a broken hamate bone. However, when he did play, he was amazing. In 74 games, he hit 27 home runs, 67 RBI and .265. He was on pace tio hit 50 home runs, but his plate discipline declined.

His strikeout rate was just 0.1 point shy of 30 percent. He also lost four percent off his walk rate. It looked like he was sacrificing average in favor of power. His fly ball rate jumped 5.8 percent and his HR/FB rate went up almost six. He was making harder contact than ever before, almost 50 percent.

The Miami Marlins have some interesting pieces in their lineup. Along with Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour and Dee Gordon all hold some fantasy value. This is actually a good offense that could be the best in the National League West.

If Stanton can stay healthy, only one 150-game season, then he will be a top-three outfielder all season. Some of the injuries were unavoidable, but it still affects fantasy teams. Let’s just hope for one 155-game season.

I don’t think Stanton will be that free swinging this season. I expect him to get back to his 40-homer ways with 108 RBI and a .280 average. If he decides to keep hitting for power, make sure you have someone to counterbalance the low average.

Next: No. 3: Andrew McCutchen

Here is the second Pirates outfielder. Andrew McCutchen has been a constant first-round pick for the last few years. Unfortunately, he was unable to live up to expectations last season. According to ESPN ADP, he was the No. 2 overall pick. He finished as the No. 13 outfielder on the Player Rater. The numbers didn’t look bad, though. He hit 23 home runs, 96 RBI and .292 with 11 steals.

His strikeout rate has increased by two percent over the last three seasons. He is making less contact with pitches in and out of the strike zone, 54.6 O-Contact, 83.2 Z-Contact and 75.7 contact rates. He did hit more line drives last season as his ground ball and fly ball rates dropped. His hard hit rate dropped 1.6 percent.

McCutchen doesn’t have the same speed he once had. I don’t see him reaching 10 steals, so the “five-tool player” label should no longer be used. With all the young talent entering the league, he is likely on the outside of the top 10. While he’s been injury-free for most of his career, the drop in production over the last couple of seasons may be signs of a slow decline.

Next: No. 2: Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper is a top-three pick. I questioned it in October, but I declare it true now. He will go after the next guy and Goldschmidt in most drafts. After a couple of years waiting for him to break out, Harper finally had the season we were all expecting.

He hit 42 home runs, 99 RBI, and a .330/.460/.649 line. He was the second-best outfielder last season. The big question is, can he do it again? The simple answer is yes.

Harper is a very patient hitter at the plate. He had 0.95 BB/K rate, which helps in OBP leagues. He destroyed the ball last year. His 40.9 hard hit rate was good for fifth in the league. He had a ridiculous 27.3 HR/FB rate, so expect that to come down a bit.

I don’t expect Harper to reach 50 home runs, only one in the last five years, but I do expect another 40-homer season. I can see an uptick in his steals coming, too. New Washington Nationals manager Dusty Baker brought in Davey Lopes to coach first base. Lopes has been known as a steals guy. Harper had 18 in 2012, but only eight in his previous two seasons.

I project Harper to have 40 home runs, 98 RBI, 10 steals, and a .305 average.

Next: No. 1: Mike Trout

At the end of last season, I asked if Mike Trout was still the first overall pick. I flip-flopped between Trout and Goldschmidt for a long time. In my final decision, I stick with Trout as the No. 1 overall pick. If Goldy has another season like the one he last year, then I would change my mind.

He hit 41 home runs, 90 RBI and .299 with 11 steals. As I mentioned in the previous piece, RBI is not something you can fully blame on the batter. Just like you can’t fully blame wins on the pitcher. It depends on his surrounding cast, and Trout did not have the team surroundings last year. With Trout included, the Los Angeles Angels had a .307 OBP, 25th in the league.

While his speed has drastically gone down, 33 steals two years ago, he has more than enough value with his bat. He does strike out about 23 percent of the time, which prevented him from hitting over .300 the last two seasons. However, hitting .299 isn’t that bad.

He will turn 25 in August. He’s going to be a top-five pick for the next seven to eight years. After that? He may still even be in the top 10. You know what to expect from Trout.

Next: Wrap Up

Outfield done.

This is a special group of outfielders. There is a lot of power, and some speed, to be had when drafting someone from this tier. You would be lucky to have any one of these players on your team. While some are obviously better than others, they are all clearly in the top 10 for a reason.

One player I want to monitor is Harper. Can he repeat his MVP season or was 2015 a fluke? I think it’s the former, but we won’t know until the season is over. I also want to see how the younger Betts hits this season. Is he a 20/20 guy or will be decline across the board?

Like I said, some of these players are a bit risky, but could pay off in a big way. If they match or beat their previous season’s totals, then drafting them as your No. 1 outfielder will pay off greatly.

Next: Michael Pineda 2016 Value Pick

How do you think I did with my outfield rankings? Did I take a big risk on Pollock and Betts or is that appropriate? Let me know in the comments.

The next position I rank will be starting pitcher. Similar to outfield, I will rank 21 to 50 in one slide show, 11 to 20 in another and the top 10 in a third.