Assessing offensive style for new head coaches

Yesterday, here at Nylon Calculus, I shared final year-by-year team offensive style charts. These are meant to somewhat separate process from product, offering a snapshot of the different ways that teams go about the job of trying to score efficiently. Each team’s offense is charted by four style characteristics — pace[1. Measured by average length of an offensive possessions, courtesy of Inpredictable], ball movement[2. Measured by average touch time, courtesy of NBA.com], player movement[3. Measured as average distance traveled per 24 seconds of offensive possessions, calculated from NBA.com], and shot selection[4. Measured with Seth Partnow’s XeFG%, which is unfortunately only available through January 25, when the NBA took down their public shot logs]. As you move away from the center of the graph on each axis, the team is including more of that element (or using a generically more efficient shot selection in that case).

As was pointed out yesterday, there is no ideal offensive style. The best offenses do not rely on the same styles for efficiency. Having year-to-year graphs also allows us to look at how each team’s offense has evolved over the past two seasons. This is especially interesting when looking at head coaches who just wrapped up their first full season with a new team.

Fred Hoiberg

The Chicago Bulls offense was something of a disappointment this year. Hoiberg was supposed to push this team towards a faster, more fluid style of offensive play, shaking them out of the grinding rut that Tom Thibodeau had placed them in. Instead their offensive efficiency declined by about 2.5 points per 100 possessions. You can see from the graph below though that it was not because Hoiberg didn’t shake things up.

Hoiberg delivered on promises of more space and movement. The problem is that all that speed and motion didn’t result in better shots. The Bulls took a lower percentage of their shots around the basket and from behind the three-point line this season. Derrick Rose floaters and Pau Gasol hook shots became increasingly prevalent and a lot of the Bulls’ offense died just outside the painted area. The hope is that this was a step in the right direction and that a remade roster will be able to get more out of Hoiberg’s system next season. Still, the results here were an enormous disappointment.

Billy Donovan

The Oklahoma City Thunder were another team looking for significant offensive changes. The Thunder had long been one of the league’s most efficient offenses under previous head coach, Scott Brooks. But they relied heavily on the individual talents of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, and there was a tendency for the offense to stagnate dangerously in close games and in the playoffs. Both Durant and Westbrook had career years and their offensive efficiency was a franchise-best 6.7 points per 100 possessions better than the league average. The changes were small but significant.

Oklahoma City took more shots at the rim and from behind the three-point line this season, cutting down on their mid-range jumpers. Just having Durant back in the lineup and healthy probably did as much as anything to change their shot selection patterns and encourage ball movement. Still, for the growth they’ve shown, the Thunder still haven’t quite solved those end of game issues.

Sam Mitchell

Mitchell was placed in a difficult position this year, assuming interim head coaching responsibilities before the season began when Flip Saunders fell ill and eventually passed away. Mitchell was trapped between developing youth and trying to win enough games to keep the job. As such, the offensive system was probably overly conservative.

In terms of change, Mitchell didn’t do much. The ball moved a little less and the team played slightly faster. Other than that it seemed like, in terms of these bare-bones style traits, Mitchell was mostly trying to maintain continuity. He was relieved of interim duties at the end of the season and Tom Thibodeau was hired to replace him, setting up another interesting comparison in style.

Mike Malone

Evaluating the Malone and the Nuggets offense this season is difficult because they were helmed by Emmanuel Mudiay, a rookie point guard who struggled throughout the season with finishing, turnovers, and decision-making. However, several players blossomed under Malone this season — Will Barton and Gary Harris — and Nikola Jokic was a revelation. All in all, you can see Denver building towards something.

The stagnant post-ups of Brian Shaw were abandoned in favor of a more free-flowing offense. The ball moved a lot more frequently and the Nuggets turned that movement into a much better mix of shots. It would be interesting to see Denver continue to push the pace as so many of their young athletes thrive in transition, but this season’s baby steps certainly seemed to be carrying them in the right direction.

Scott Skiles

Skiles came to the Magic with a strong defensive reputation but he actually had a much bigger effect on their offense. In his first year in Orlando, the Magic improved their offensive efficiency by 3.5 points per 100 possessions. A lot of the improvement can be traced to changes in style.

The generic quality of Orlando’s shot selection was fairly static this season. Given that they rely so much on Nikola Vucevic and shaky shooters like Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, and Victor Oladipo it may be unreasonable to expect them to give up their mid-range activity. What’s impressive is how much more movement Skiles was able to incorporate into their offense and the way they sped up their possessions, all great ways to compensate for inconsistent shooting. With another year of development and maybe a carefully chosen free agent or two, this could be a dangerous offense.

Alvin Gentry

Gentry was hired directly from the Golden State Warriors bench and the idea was that he would open up their system, make it more Warrior-like and create space for Anthony Davis to work. Although the results were terrible — a decline of 2.6 points per 100 possessions this season — the Pelicans were also decimated by injuries. Considering how many of their core pieces were missing, what Gentry accomplished is fairly significant.

Although it didn’t manifest in efficiency, Gentry did deliver on systemic change. No offense in the NBA showed more combined change in these four stylistic measures this season than the Pelicans did. In pace and player movement, they are approaching the extremes of the Warriors. It was a frustrating year for New Orleans but it will interesting to see how much of the change in style holds into next season, and what they can accomplish with a healthy roster in this system.