Round 2 Preview: Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat

Here at Nylon Calculus we track and analyze a wide  variety of stats, so here are a few hand-picked ones offered as preview of the Raptors-Heat series.

This is a numbers versus reputation series. The Raptors on paper have a strong team and they’re easily the second best in the east — by the stats. The Heat, however, have three titles in the Dwyane Wade era and a number of big names on the roster. Out of habit, they’re seen as a conference finals contender because of what we experienced with their LeBron James iteration, even though they missed the playoffs last season. The Raptors have playoff demons that go back to the Vince Carter days, and the Heat have been dominating ever since Chris Bosh was out for the season. So what will happen in the series?

HBox Leaders:

Kyle Lowry is the star of the series, according to HBox. Most NBA die-hards understand his value, but his per game stats are modest for an all-star. However, it’s his versatility in the stats that separates him from the field, from his steals to his three-pointers to his passing. The highest rated Miami Heat player is Hassan Whiteside, thanks to his ridiculous shot-blocking, rebounding, and efficiency. But after them, there’s a bit of a gap, as DeMar DeRozan has the second best rating on the Raptors but it’s a modest +1.2. (And yes, Dwyane Wade’s HBox is just a little above average. Reputations linger.) Toronto’s strength lies in its depth, from Cory Joseph to Bismack Biyombo.

True usage: 

Dwyane Wade has the highest true usage percentage of any player in the series. True usage is a more complete picture of who dominates and leads an offense, and Wade historically has few peers there — he’s a high usage, playmaking monster. Even in an old age his stats there are still high. However, it’s arguably to the detriment of his team because his skills have eroded and Goran Dragic plays better with the ball. Kyle Lowry, meanwhile, has a more reasonable balance. He’s the passer but he’s still a good scorer, while DeMar DeRozan is their scorer. Dragic, by the way, has been getting involved in the offense more often later in the season, and it’s one of the primary causes for how the Heat have been so great in Chris Bosh’s absence.

Rim protectors:

Hassan Whiteside is the league’s preeminent shot-blocker, and his rim protection stats look stellar too. His opponent FG% allowed is very good, but it was far from the best and he contests a high number of shots inside — and that’s a critique. He’s wary of leaving the paint, and loves to hangout inside even when he should be covering a shooter outside, especially once he gets in foul trouble. Bismack Biyombo, by the way, another long-limbed shot-blocker, allowed a lower percentage from opponents inside. His defense will be key against Miami’s slashers and Whiteside’s length. On the flip side, Jonas Valanciunas is still limited defensively, and his rim protection numbers are poor.

Jumping to Conclusions: 

Both starting centers are poor jump ball artists. Few players in recent NBA history have a higher standing reach than Hassan Whiteside, but he’s lost more opening tip jump balls than won, while Jonas Valanciunas has done the same. But size isn’t the only determinant because it’s about timing and guiding the ball to your teammates accurately and quickly. Via my own stats, Whiteside has an advantage, and he projects to beat Jonas at the opening tip 54% of the time.

Prediction:

As the second seed with homecourt advantage, the Raptors have an 80.1% chance of winning the series. The numbers used here and seen below are a mix of team ratings with a few players factored in and projected RPM via Nathan Walker. The team rating method is also explained here, and it’s essentially what you see at basketball-reference with SRS but it’s using a more robust method, ridge regression, with a few key players as additional variables like Chris Bosh and DeMarre Carroll. As mentioned before, the Miami Heat have been better without Chris Bosh, and it’s tough to discern whether they’ve had a legitimate, sustainable improvement or if something screw is going on. The Raptors, by contrast, have been better with Carroll, and his defense is important to corral Miami’s offense. The numbers here say the Raptors are comfortably better, but this is not an easy series to predict.