FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for June 22 (Early)

Welcome to the Wednesday Early edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

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Wednesday’s MLB schedule is split into two FanDuel slates with 7 games on the early docket which begins at 12:10PM EST and another 8 games at 7:05PM EST making for a great day of FanDuel MLB action!

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Time Period	Score	Pitcher Salary	Pitcher %	Hitter %	Hitter $/Player	Value
Season	255.7	$ 8,650	25%	75%	$ 3,294	7.31
5 Day	272.8	$ 8,960	26%	74%	$ 3,255	7.79
Prev Day	243.5	$ 9,200	26%	74%	$ 3,225	6.96

Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Next: Who are the top pitching options on Wednesday's Early Slate?

The early FanDuel MLB slate has 7 games with a variety of playable pitching options but on a smaller slate, the question will be do you opt for the safety of one of the top pitchers in baseball or look to drop down in price to afford higher upside bats.

Jake Arrieta ($12,100) at home versus St. Louis: The highest priced pitchers gets a home match up against the rival Cardinals and will be one of the chalk plays in cash games but keep in mind that Noah Syndergaard was pushed to Wednesday afternoon which provides another elite option!

Over the last month Arrieta has averaged 42.6 points per start which is third highest of any pitcher on the slate. Over the last two weeks, Arrieta has been the top pitcher on a points per game basis, averaging 49.5 points per game.

Arrieta has tremendous career numbers against the Cardinals, holding them to a .195 average over 133 at bats and surrendering ZERO home runs. Keep in mind however, Arrieta’s worst start this season came against this same Cardinals team where he pitched only 5 innings and gave up 4 ER while striking out only 4 batters.

C.C. Sabathia ($7,600) at home versus Colorado Rockies: Heading into this season, few baseball experts thought that C.C. Sabathia had much left to offer the New York Yankees and fantasy owners largely have overlooked Sabthia’s performance but it may be time to re-evaluate our usage of the Yankees veteran.

Over the last 2 weeks, Sabathia has averaged 46.5 points per start which is second over that time frame only to the aforementioned Jake Arrieta.

Would it surprise you to know that Sabathia has not given up more than 2 ER’s in any start since April? The resurgence is real folks and the price continues to sit at a level that allows a point per dollar upside that is ideal for tournaments.

Sabathia sits at a price point that is roughly a 40% discount from Arrieta but his fantasy output has been only a 6% variance to Arrieta over the last 2 weeks and 11% over the last month.

With a significant cost savings, is the better play to take the 3-5 point reduction from Arrieta to Sabathia and look to make that up with a higher upside offense?

Pitching Summary: In cash games, I have no issue with gamers playing it safe with Arrieta but if I am going to spend 35% of my total roster budget on a pitcher, I want more upside than what Arrieta has shown comparative to other top MLB pitchers over the last month with only one start in his last five exceeding 50 points.

Frankly, I will look to pivot away from Arrieta and take the saving with Sabathia as their is a high priced offense I want exposure to and I believe C.C. can continue to be one of the best point per dollar values of any SP in FanDuel.

Next: Who is the top stack on Wednesday afternoon?

With only a handful of games and few unfavorable match-ups to be found on the early slate there is one game that stands out as a “must play” and for my money, it makes sense to start here and work the rest of your lineup in as you can!

Toronto Blue Jays RHB at home versus Robbie Ray: Stacking the Blue Jays right handed bats at home against a left-hander is not exactly new to the DFS community, but there is no match-up on the board that has the offensive upside that this game has the potential for and makes for a dangerous fade.

Let’s start first with the opposing pitcher, left-hander Robbie Ray of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Digging into Ray’s splits you say massive jumps across the boards comparing his success against lefties versus righties and builds further credibility into an all-out stack.

Ray’s walk rate jumps from 4.8% against LHB to 11.3% against RHB and his HR/9 rate skyrockets from .4 to 1.52! So Ray walks more batters and gives up more home runs….sounds like a recipe for stacking success to me!

The Jays offense is clicking right now with Edwin Encarnacion($4,300) and Josh Donaldson($4,500) both averaging over 20 points per game over the last two weeks and they make for key foundation pieces towards any stack.

Cheaper options include Russell Martin ($3,100) who is averaging 12.3 points per game and Kevin Pillar ($3,100) who has put up 13.8 points per game the last 2 weeks.

Troy Tulowitzki ($3,000) is back off the DL and Michael Saunders ($3,900) makes for an interesting pivot as the lefty-lefty match-up will likely leave him under-owned but Saunders has had success against LHP this season to the tune of a .308 average and 6 home runs in 65 at bats.

Hitting Summary: Clearly the Blue Jays are the top stack and I would like to start with Encarnacion and Donaldson and build from there but one pivot option would be to utilize some of the cheaper Blue Jay options and pivot to Anthony Rizzo & Kris Bryant at the corner IF spots as they have both had substantial success against Wednesday’s starter Michael Wacha.

Next: Top FanDuel MLB Early Lineup

Below you will find my initial lineup for Wednesday’s Early FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.

Pitcher:

More from FanSided

Catcher: Welington Castillo ($3,200) With a LHP on the mound and in a favorable hitting environment, Castillo makes for one of the top catching plays in the afternoon.

First Base: Edwin Encarnacion ($4,300)

Second Base: Ben Zobrist ($3,200)

Third Base: Josh Donaldson ($4,500)

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki ($3,000)

Outfield: Michael Saunders ($3,900)

Outfield: Jason Heyward ($2,900)

Outfield: Rickie Weeks Jr. ($2,400) Weeks bats in the heart of the order and gives you very cheap exposure to an Arizona mini-stack against JA Happ

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!