Chicago Bulls: Unconventional, but not uninteresting

The signing of Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade by the Chicago Bulls have made two things abundantly clear.

One is that they are willing to gamble on the behavior of a renowned malcontent and a declining legend with questionable knees to man their backcourt for at least the next year.

The other: they have little to no intention of joining most of the NBA in embracing the three-point shot as a major part of their offensive arsenal.

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A backcourt comprised of two players that shy away from the three as often as Wade and Rondo do is not commonplace in today’s NBA. The below graph is comprised of teams since the advent of the three-point shot in the 1979-1980 season with at least two guards with the following qualifications: started at least half of the available season games, played at least 2000 minutes, took less than 15 percent of their shots from three-point range, and hit less than 30 percent of their threes. On the x-axis is the average three point attempt rate between the two players and on the y-axis is their average effective field goal percentage. The 2015-2016 Chicago Bulls is not Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler, but instead last year’s numbers for Rondo and Wade.

A few things standout. First, those Rolando Blackman/Mark Aguirre Dallas backcourts were amazingly efficient for being so averse to the three-point line. Also, even though the Bulls have the highest 3PAr on this chart, there do not seem to be any recent examples to compare it to with the Rondo/Wade pairing. The last two similar instances being the 1997-1998 Nets (Kendall Gill, Sam Cassell) and Bulls (Michael Jordan, Ron Harper). The only way to truly measure these numbers within the league at a given time is relative to league average.

Below is a timeline of the same teams with their 3PAr on the Y-axis along with the league average 3PAr for the corresponding year on the X-axis.

Note the leap on the chart from 1997-1998 to 2015-2016 to save on space. It has been almost 20 years since a backcourt had the statistics measured earlier. Thirty-seven of the 65 occurrences happened before the league average 3PAr creeped above 5 percent. In fact, in some seasons, teams with low 3PAr in 2015-2016 parlance were above league average in that particular season. The divide between Rondo/Wade and the league average for 2015-2016 is the largest measured of the 65 teams and time will tell if that holds true.

A common misconception though is that Fred Hoiberg’s preferred offense is a pace-and-space attack predicated on shooting the three. In his first season as Bulls head coach, in what was deemed by many a colossal failure, Hoiberg’s team was 24th in the NBA in 3PAr. Granted, there were times that players admittedly weren’t running the offense, instead settling back to Tom Thibodeau’s style, or the continuation of the “iso-ball” tug of war between Butler and Rose.

But this reliance on the three-point shot seems to be overblown even when looking back to Hoiberg’s Iowa State days. Below is each year Hoiberg was at Iowa State, the corresponding winning percentage for his team and their national rank in four shooting categories: eFG%, 3PT%, 2PT%, and 3PAr.

Iowa State picture /

The most successful Iowa State teams excelled not from long range, but from within the arc where they used high screens and quick offense to get open midrange looks. In 2014 and 2015, when the Cyclones won at least 74% of their games, their best finish in 3PT% was 84th while their best finish in 3PAr was 65th. During that same period, they finished ninth and 11th respectively in 2PT FG%.

However, those were college defenses. In order to create efficient scoring opportunities against NBA level defenses that are more athletic and disciplined, there needs to exist two things absent three-point shooters at the guard position: three-point threats at other positions and guards that are able to get into the lane and draw fouls to generate additional opportunities.

Lost on some (including myself) is that the Bulls finished third in the NBA in 3PT FG% led primarily by Doug McDermott (42.5%) and Nikola Mirotic (39.0% despite his inherent streakiness). Both are sieves on the defensive end, although Mirotic has shown the potential to be a decent team defender, but both can set up in the corners or wings opposite some Rondo/Wade/Butler drives and let it fly. There are big questions on the defensive end, but if having Mirotic and McDermott on the floor could open up driving lanes.

The Bulls are going to rely heavily on their new backcourt to attack the basket and draw fouls in lieu of their long range shortcomings. Below is a chart displaying each guard that played over 2000 minutes in 2015-2016 with their free throw attempt rate versus their three point attempt rate.

While Wade and Butler are both well below average for 3PAr, they are both in the Top 10 in FTAr. Wade may not be the basket-attacking, whirling dervish of his prime, he still excels in this area. Butler will likely move over to small forward, but his ability to attack the basket should still be taken into account. Plus, there will be lineups with either Rondo on the bench and a Wade/Butler backcourt or Wade on the bench with a Rondo/Butler backcourt.

To look at backcourt combinations and potential backcourt combinations together in the contest of 3PAr and FTr, I looked at all backcourts in 2015-2016 with two players that started at least 41 games and played 2000 minutes. One thing is certainly true: more than any other team in the NBA, the Bulls are putting a lot of their trust in their backcourt being able to get to the basket.

The top left quadrant, those teams that excel at getting to the line, but don’t shoot from distance consists of all three potential Bulls backcourt combinations, the 2016 Bulls backcourt of Rose/Butler and the Raptors duo of Lowry and DeRozan. That’s it. Most teams listed in this chart (11 of 19) have a below average FTr and an above average 3PAr.

The Bulls are certainly going against the grain in the assembly of their 2016-2017 backcourt. They’re also going against the words of GM Gar Forman who expressed an interest in getting more athletic and younger. It’s unconventional an today’s NBA. But there’s one thing it won’t be: uninteresting.

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