‘Maniac Russ’ best suited for Oklahoma City
If your time to you is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’ or you’ll sink like a stone,
For the times they are a’ changin’!
– Bob Dylan
Although not anticipating the last 50-days and events that have unfolded in Oklahoma City, Bob Dylan might as well have been singing to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. Over the course of the last seven weeks, the Thunder went from a commanding 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals against the then defending NBA champion Warriors, surging to what appeared to be their second NBA Finals in the Durant-Westbrook era with a bright future ahead to a franchise adrift without direction. Not only did they lose their tenured superstar in Durant during free agency, they lost him to the same Warriors franchise that sunk their season’s championship aspirations in May.
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The aftermath of Durant’s decision and departure left the vitality of the Westbrook-Thunder partnership at risk of collapse. For the majority of his career, Westbrook has been criticized for his style of play, which surfaced again during the playoffs in his Game 3 performance against the Spurs in the West semifinals. His style of play is often criticized as reckless, discouraging to ball-movement, debilitating to Durant and disruptive to the Thunder’s offensive flow, which is certainly supported by his high turnover rate and high volume of shot-attempts that are nearly equal to Durant, but converted at a much lower rate.
However, during the eight-year Durant-Westbrook tenure, the Thunder managed to accumulate a 0.618 win-percentage, 109.5 offensive rating, four Western Conference Finals and one NBA Finals appearance. For all the criticism and frustration with Westbrook’s style of play, its impact on Durant and other players, ‘Maniac Russ’ produced and succeeded in Oklahoma City. While Durant’s departure has sparked plenty of questions about the future of a Westbrook-Thunder franchise, the more important question is: Why does ‘Maniac Russ’ work and how should this factor into Westbrook and the Thunder’s decisions?
Shot-Specific-Distance OREB Probability Model
In previous posts, I used my descriptive based shot-specific-distance RAPM model to evaluate players using expected points per possession while they are on the court. While this may be useful, as it was when examining the impact of Kyle Lowry’s style of play against the Cavaliers’ defense in the ECF, it fails to incorporate other aspects of a possession that may further indicate how a player impacts a game. As a result, I specifically turned my attention to offensive rebounding while Westbrook is on the court on offense for two main reasons:
(1) Missed shots provide opportunities for teams to continue or end possessions and their ability to control the rebound will increase or decrease their expected points per possession.
(2) Westbrook is excellent at attacking the basket, which attracts defenders to help contest the shot instead of boxing out their man, in theory leading to easier rebound opportunities.
Now, Westbrook is often criticized for his shot selection and shot efficiency, but if his style of play forces the defense to overcommit and contest his drives then it should lead to more offensive rebounds, which is a valuable possession outcome. Through this model it can be better understood where and how Westbrook’s style of play impacts the control of a possession and subsequent expected points while he is on the court.
In summary, the model measures the probability of an offensive rebound while a player is on the court assuming average teammates, opponents and a shot is missed with a known distance. For reference, when looking at the league average this past season, shots missed within 4 feet of the basket provided the greatest chance of an offensive rebound. As the missed shot distance increased, there was a noticeable decrease in the probability of an offensive rebound. However, there was an uptick when shots were missed from three-point distance indicating that a missed three-point shot was slightly more valuable than a missed mid- to deep-range two point shot in terms of the offense grabbing the rebound.
Why ‘Maniac Russ’ Works
Upon examination, the model indicates that Westbrook provides an overall positive impact towards the probability of an offensive rebound, specifically given shots are missed within 8 feet of the basket and from three-point distance. Compared to the rest of the NBA, Westbrook ranks among the best, especially from these ranges.
It’s important to note that the model does not claim Westbrook is responsible for these missed shots, but interestingly enough while on the court, Westbrook is most impactful on the probability of an offensive rebound in missed shot-attempt distances that are cited most often when criticizing his style of play. Despite what appears to be aggressive, wild drives with quick, off-balance shots that have often been used to identify ‘Maniac Russ’, these events correspond to significantly higher offensive rebound probabilities. In addition, while he is on the court, missed three-point attempts have the largest probability differential among the measured shot distances, suggesting that his sometimes baffling and low percentage attempts from this range might not be completely void of value.
The results make sense as Westbrook is one of the most aggressive dribble-drive guards in the NBA and excels at penetrating and pressuring defenses to react to him, which better positions an offense to grab a rebound by either:
(1) Attracting help defenders reacting to aggressive drives freeing space for teammates to get the rebound.
(2) Increasing the number of players near the basket in a position to grab the rebound as opposed to a shooter standing far from the basket.
Now a player can contribute either directly or indirectly to the probability of an offensive rebound. In theory, direct impact players collect a lot of offensive rebounds that will increase the probability that an offensive rebound occurs while they are on the court (think Andre Drummond). Indirect players collect few offensive rebounds, but have a high probability of an offensive rebound and suggests there is something else that they are doing while on the court that increases the chance of an offensive rebound. In the case of ‘Maniac Russ’, it would be expected that he falls into the later category and the extent in which he does can be observed by plotting the model’s non-shot-specific-distance offensive rebound probability given a missed shot against individual offensive rebounds per game.
When looking at the top offensive rebounders (minimum 2.0 ORPG) along with Westbrook and Durant, the model suggests Westbrook’s overall contribution is more indirect than direct, as expected. For example, despite collecting about 3 offensive rebounds per game less than Andre Drummond, Westbrook provides a much greater likelihood that an offensive rebound will occur while he is on the court. More importantly, if this high probability was a result of playing with Adams and Kanter, it would be expected that Durant would also have a high probability of an offensive rebound by association, which is not the case. This suggests that Westbrook is doing something more to increase the likelihood of an offensive rebound, which can be attributed to the aggression ‘Maniac Russ’ plays with when attacking the basket and its subsequent impact on defenses, despite how frustrating it can be to watch at times.
Finding the best Fit
Since Durant’s move, much of the discussion surrounding Westbrook has been centered around trade value, specifically for the Thunder and teams in need of Westbrook, which wasexcellently broken down last week by Max. However, the discussion hasn’t considered which team provides the best fit and is suited to harness ‘Maniac Russ’. There is no question Westbrook is a unique player, but as the model suggests he is most effective when he is aggressive towards the basket. Capitalizing on this impact requires a supporting cast that provides great offensive rebounding capabilities that not every team currently possesses.
As a result, the most natural fitting teams (not taking into consideration trade value, cap space or desirability) to capitalize on Westbrook are teams that excel at offensive rebounding. After filtering out teams that don’t need another point guard, the best fit teams and their top offensive rebounding impact players are plotted and categorized by team to better understand their comparative composition, strengths and overall fit with Westbrook.
Outside of the Thunder, the Celtics, Pistons and Suns provide the best team fits for Westbrook in terms of complementing his impact described by the model. Of these teams, the best fits for Westbrook would be:
1. Phoenix – Unlike the Celtics or the Pistons, the Suns provide three well above-average impact offensive rebounders in Len, Tucker and Chandler; all big interior-orientated players. Compared to the other teams, these three players provide not only the best average collection of individual rebounding skill, but also in terms of increasing the probability an offensive rebound occurs while they are on the court.
2. Boston – The Celtics provide the most players that can individually contribute to offensive rebounds, but that depth doesn’t necessarily translate into impact players who increase the probability that an offensive rebound occurs like the Suns can provide. Although the addition of Horford provides another big to rebound, he doesn’t increase the likelihood of it occurring – unsurprising considering how infrequently recent Atlanta teams have attacked the offensive glass.
3. Detroit – The Pistons have the best individual offensive rebounder in the league in Andre Drummond, but compared to the other teams, they don’t have incredible depth or players that noticeably increase the probability an offensive rebound occurs. In terms of intrigue, a Westbrook-Drummond pairing would be exciting, but not necessarily the best overall team fit.
The Thunder
If Westbrook were to leave, the Suns appear to be the best team to currently complement his skills. However, with respect to how ‘Maniac Russ’ impacts the game, the best overall option would be for Westbrook to remain in Oklahoma City. From a team composition perspective, the Thunder provide two of the most impactful interior-orientated players in the league in Adams and Kanter. Although the Suns could provide more impact offensive rebounders, the Thunder offer two players that are better in terms of indirect and direct impact than any three of the Suns’ players. As a result, the Thunder could amplify the impact of ‘Maniac Russ’ the best of the top offensive rebounding teams.
In addition, the loss of Durant does not diminish the impact of ‘Maniac Russ’ and could potentially elevate Westbrook. Durant provides average at best offensive rebounding impact and the removal of him from the lineup doesn’t take away a player that enhances Westbrook’s style of play. The Durant-Westbrook era was muddled with inconsistency between the two players, which was in large part a result of their differing styles of play. Both players needed the ball in their hand, but both needed to be in different areas of the court to be most successful with Durant closer to the perimeter and Westbrook near the basket. Without Durant, the Thunder can finally establish a consistent offensive identity that amplifies ‘Maniac Russ’, which they currently are built to do.
While these two groups consider their future together, it is important they consider why ‘Maniac Russ’ works and what conditions make it successful. The Thunder are in a great position to harness ‘Maniac Russ’ today and there is no reason to unnecessarily move their last superstar. On the other hand, Westbrook needs to recognize there are few viable teams that can compliment his skills like the Thunder can and with Durant gone, the Thunder haven’t been in a better position to build around Westbrook and Westbrook hasn’t been in a better position to succeed.