Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the FanDuel MLB Lineups July 28th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel point-per-game (PPG) trends.
The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay-day with your FanDuel MLB lineups!
With a whopping twelve teams taking the day off today, MLB has only nine games on the schedule this Thursday. Two games are in the early afternoon, with Tyler Anderson and the Colorado Rockies facing Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets at 1:10pm ET. The game is followed up shortly with another early start in Milwaukee at 2:10pm ET, where Robbie Ray and the Arizona Diamondbacks will face a touch Zach Davies and the ‘Brew-crew.’ Here’s what the FanDuel schedule of options look like to start the day:
- 1:10pm ET (Early Only)
- 1:10pm ET (All Day)
- 7:10pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the FanDuel MLB lineups for today’s value, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your FanDuel MLB lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s FanDuel MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
So far this season, we have focused on year-to-date statistics for pitchers, since they typically only pitch once per week. However, now that we’ve had more time to develop a greater body of work over the season, we’re going to move toward an every 30-day trend for pitchers, for your daily fantasy baseball lineups. We’re also looking at anyone with three or more starts within the last 30 days.
With limited options for MLB lineups today, I’m not excited about today’s pitching value, especially considering their matchups. It’s likely a better move to pick a more expensive pitcher today like Jose Fernandez, David Price, or Cole Hamels. However, if you’re choosing expensive hitting options and need some pitchers to make it work, we have a couple to consider. Kyle Gibson (7:10pm ET) has been all over the place this season for the Minnesota Twins, including a rough -9 point outing in Washington against the Nationals in late April but also a 51 point result in Boston against the Red Sox most recently, on July 22nd. But over his last seven outings, while some have been sub-par yielding only around 20 points he’s also had three between 44 and 54 points, which is outstanding for his value. Over the last month, Kyle averaged 37.6 PPG, a top 25 average. Gibson’s salary is a near rock-bottom $6,700. So with a high 5.6X value, 2nd among all starting pitchers, Gibson is certainly a great value. The only risk is Kyle is pitching against a formidable Orioles lineup, which could be a problem today. However, Gibson is facing Ubaldo Jimenez, who has been struggling mightily lately.
Tyler Anderson (1:10pm ET) is having a better season than Gibson, with an ERA of only 3.56, fairly solid, and 41 K’s over 48 innings, also not bad. Anderson also has 3 wins in 9 starts, so winning one out of every three starts. Also, all three of Tyler’s wins have come in each of his last three outings. So Anderson is focused on the mound lately. Over the last thirty days, Anderson averaged 31.5 PPG. With a very cheap $6,300, Ubaldo Jimenez is floor for salary today at $6,200, Anderson is providing a 5X value, 10th among all starting pitchers. Again, there’s risk facing a solid New York Mets lineup this afternoon. Also, on the mound for the Mets today is Jacob deGrom, who is certainly a better pitcher than Anderson. So there’s risk with this pick as well, greater than Gibson.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 50 among your daily fantasy baseball lineups.
Wilson Ramos, C, (10:15pm ET) is having a career year for the Washington Nationals in 2016, hitting a .336 batting average, 15 home runs, 44 runs, and 54 RBI’s. That’s amazing stats for a catcher at the end of July. Ramos is now hitting 4th in a very good Nationals offensive lineup. Over the last week, Wilson averaged 16.1 PPG, 3rd among all starting catchers. With Johnny Cueto on the mound for the Giants tonight, Ramos’ salary dropped down to $2,700. Yes, Cueto is a good pitcher, but it’s hard to ignore 6X value for a hot hitting catcher, who has been consistently good all season. For more options at catcher, here is a recent deep-dive into the catcher position.
Unfortunately Joey Votto and the Cincinnati Reds are taking the night off, but I look forward to starting Votto tomorrow, he’s on fire. However, another hot commodity at first base lately is Hanley Ramirez, 1B, (10:05pm ET). Ramirez had 3 home runs in one game against the Giants on July 20th. He seemed like he may cool off afterward, but he he hit a home run and drove in 3 RBI’s in back-to-back games against the Twins on the 23rd and 24th. Over the last week, Ramirez now has a 19.9 PPG average, second only to Votto’s 23.4 PPG. Hanley’s salary did spike today, now to $3,800, but that’s still a 5.2X value, second among all first basemen (again, below Votto).
Johnny Giavotella, 2B, (10:05pm ET) has had spotty playing time lately. However, since his slump in early July ended, he’s been in the lineup more often. And Giavotella seems to be responding well. Over the last week, Johnny averaged 13.9 PPG 4th among all second basemen. Giavotella’s salary is incredibly cheap, at $2,200. So with a 6.3X value, if Johnny is in the Angels lineup tonight, play him.
We’ve talked about Jedd Gyorko, 3B, (7:10pm ET) a few times lately, he’s been hot. Gyorko has cooled off recently, but it still piling up points some nights. Over the last seven days, Jedd averaged 18.1 PPG, 3rd among all third basemen. With a reasonable $2,900 salary, that’s a 6.2X value, the best among all third basemen over the last week. If you’d like to consider other options, take a look at a deeper-dive into the 3B position for FanDuel MLB lineups.
With a 19.4 PPG average and reasonable $3,400 salary Trevor Story, SS, (1:10pm ET) is once again the best value option today, 5.7X. However, if you’re getting tired of playing Story, Trea Turner, SS, (10:15pm ET), the young Nationals infield prospect, has been on fire lately. Turner is now averaging 15.3 PPG, just behind Story as 2nd among all shortstops. Trea’s salary is cheaper, now at $3,000, a 5.1X value today. For more on this position, take a look at a deeper-dive into the SS position.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
After a long slump, Kirk Nieuwenhuis (2:10pm ET) appears to be locking in at the plate again. Kirk has 3 home runs in his last four games, and has double-digit FanDuel points in three of his last four games. Nieuwenhuis averaged 19.9 PPG over the last week, 4th among all starting outfielders. Kirk still has an attractive salary at $3,000 today, giving us a very good 6.6X value, easily the best value at outfield tonight.
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is getting regular playing time for the San Francisco Giants, and more interestingly Mac is now often hitting in the 3rd spot of the lineup, usually the most productive on any lineup, and the Giants have many good hitters. Williamson is probably hitting in a good spot, because he’s been very hot lately. Over the last week, Mac averaged 18.1 PPG. Williamson’s salary is a reasonable $3,000, giving us a great 6X value.
There’s quite a gap between the top two value options and everyone else, but one person jumps out immediately, Mookie Betts (10:05pm ET). First of all, Betts value would be much higher, if it were for his salary sky-rocketing to $4,500 for tonight. So full disclose, Mookie is very expensive for a hitter today. However, Betts is also averaging 20.5 PPG, the most of any outfielder playing tonight. Mookie has been hot, hitting double-digit points in five of his last six games. Three of those games were 20+. So with a decent 4.5X value, Betts is definitely worth trying to fix into your lineup today.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
Best of luck today daily fantasy baseball gamers! Make sure to check lineups as they are announced before locking in your FanDuel MLB lineups!