FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for July 16
Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in-depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Saturday’s action kicks off at 2:20PM EST with 5 games on the Early slate and another 10 games on the main slate starting at 7:05PM EST.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
|Time Period||Score||Pitcher Salary||Pitcher %||Hitter %||Hitter $/Player||Value|
|Season||255.9||$ 8,639||25%||75%||$ 3,295||7.31|
|5 Day||251.3||$ 8,682||25%||75%||$ 3,290||7.18|
|Prev Day||228.3||$ 10,200||29%||71%||$ 3,100||6.52|
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Who is the top pitching option on Saturday's Slate?
Playing on the main slate on Saturday, there are no pitchers over $10k on FanDuel but that does not mean we will struggle to find solid starting pitching options when building our rosters.
Adam Wainwright ($9,000) at home versus Miami: Looking through the pitching options on Saturday evening, there are no overwhelming favorites or clear-cut match-ups to target at first glance but the more I dig into the slate the more Wainwright looks like the top option to lock into our lineups.
Wainwright is the largest favorite on the board (-163) and has averaged 52.5 points per start in his previous two starts before the All-Star Break. Wainwright has also seen significantly more success at home, pitching to a 2.93 ERA this season as opposed to his 6.23 ERA on the road.
Without any “lock” starters, paying up for the safety of Wainwright seems like the safest cash game play and the fact he has put up over 50 points in his last two starts puts him squarely into tournament consideration as well.
Tyler Duffey ($6,100) at home versus Cleveland: Over the last two weeks, the Twins right-handed has averaged 46 points per game which would be 7.5x value at this price point – tops of any pitcher on the Saturday night slate.
Duffey is a perfect GPP option has two of his last 3 starts have been 57 point outings, but prior to that had two 7 point starts and a -9 dud.
Duffey has faced the Indians already, pitching 7 innings and striking out 6 for a win at Cleveland. With the low price, Duffey makes a great tournament play and will allow you to load up on bats when building your lineup.
Next: Top Hitting Options for Saturday Night
The Saturday night slate has no overwhelming Vegas totals initially meaning that a “spread” approach to your roster construction may be the best approach when building your FanDuel MLB lineup.
Ryan Braun ($3,700) & Jonathan Lucroy ($3,200) at Cincinnati and LHP John Lamb: Two straight nights I will be looking to the Reds/Brewers game for offense but tonight, the Brewers RHB make for the top target when building your lineups.
Lamb has been hit hard by right-handed bats, surrendering 10 home runs in 51 IP and with a hitting environment like Great American Ballpark, it makes the Brewers sluggers a top target with their platoon advantage.
Jason Kipnis ($3,400) & Francisco Lindor ($3,600) versus RHP Tyler Duffey: The Indians offense has been firing on all cylinders lately and the price points are surprisingly reasonable for two of the most productive bats in the Cleveland lineup.
Kipnis is averaging 17.6 points per game over the last week, while Lindor has been putting up 14.6 points per game and allows you a highly productive middle infield stack at a reasonable price point.
Next: Top FanDuel MLB Lineup
Below you will find my initial lineup for Saturday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.
Pitcher: Adam Wainwright ($9,000)
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Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!