DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 16
20 of the 30 teams are in action for the main tournament tonight. Only three of the 20 pitchers are priced at $9,000 or more. Most of the teams are going away from aces starting the second half. We have to be selective with the middle tier that didn’t make the trip to San Diego. The past stats should help in that respect!
NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
The Pirates have only faced Tanner Roark 23 times, but they have hit three homers off of him already. John Jaso, Starling Marte, and Andrew McCutchen are the culprits, but they are a combined 3-10 off of him. Their only hits are those home runs.
Brandon McCarthy has never faced his former team, but he has put up two really good starts so far this season. Can he keep it up?
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Jeff Samardzija ($8,200): Samardzija has dominated the Padres so far in his career. The Padres are hitting only .240 in 129 at bats with just two homers, eight runs, and 37 strikeouts. One of the homers is by Matt Kemp, who is just 3-13 off of him. The other is by the only Padre that has hit him well. That would be Jon Jay, who is on the disabled list. If you take Jay’s stats out, the Padres are only hitting .196 with a homer and five RBI. The Padres offense is a work in progress still, and even though Samardzija limped into the break, he is still a good bet tonight.
Jerad Eickhoff ($7,800): The Mets are hitting only .231 against Eickhoff with three homers and nine RBI in 91 at bats. Those are rather pedestrian numbers, so what makes him an elite option? The 22 strikeouts help, but its the closer examination of the numbers that support this. Michael Conforto and David Wright have two of the homers. Neither of them are with the team right now. The other belongs to Curtis Granderson, who is 1-11 against Eickhoff. He should perform at well above his price range.
Danny Duffy ($11,000): Duffy has not given up more than three runs since May 27th, and the Tigers have only hit .238 against him in 147 at bats. The bad news? They have hit six homers off of him and scored 18 runs while striking out only 32 times. His price seems inflated to me because of the strikeout potential, but he only struck out four Tigers back on June 16th. He is too costly to be a top tier play tonight.
Archie Bradley ($7,900): The Dodgers are a miserable 6-31(.194) against Archie Bradley, but half of those hits have left the yard. They have struck out 14 times, which helps mitigate the damage. Bradley could have a big game if he can keep the ball in the yard. The silver lining for Bradley is the absence of Joc Pederson, who has hit two solo shots off of him. The high number of strikeouts still make him a strong play.
Tyler Duffey ($7,100): The Indians are only hitting .188 against Duffey in 64 at bats with only one homer, two runs, and 19 strikeouts. The guy that hit the two run homer, Roberto Perez, is on the disabled list. The opponent and Duffey’s bloated 5.20 ERA will scare many off, but he could come up big for those of us that choose to gamble on him tonight.
James Shields ($5,100): The Angels are hitting a respectable .247 against Shields, but they have only hit two homers and scored eight runs in 97 at bats. The 18 strikeouts is nothing to write home about, but Shields has only given up eight runs in his last four starts after a disastrous start on the South Side. He could be a great bargain tonight.
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Joe Mauer ($3,700) is 6-20 with three doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Trevor Bauer. Kennys Vargas ($2,900) hammered Bauer last year, going 5-10 with a double, a homer, and four driven in. Can he pick that up again this year? Eddie Rosario ($2,900) is back in the majors, and is worth playing if he is in the Twins’ lineup. Rosario is 4-11 with a homer and three RBI off of Bauer.
Miguel Cabrera ($3,500) is 6-24(.250) with eight walks, three doubles, and four RBI off of Danny Duffy. Victor Martinez ($3,400) is 9-25(.360) with two walks, a double, two homers, and five RBI against Duffy. Nick Castellanos ($3,900) is 6-18 with a triple, a homer, and two RBI.
You may want to stack Royals against Mike Pelfrey. Unfortunately for us daily fantasy players, Lorenzo Cain is out. He is 8-16 with five RBI against him. Not to worry, there is plenty more where that came from. Alcides Escobar ($3,600) is 8-20 with a double and a pair of RBI. Eric Hosmer ($3,600) is 5-12 with five walks, a double, and a RBI. Kendrys Morales ($3,800) is only 3-13, but he has a homer and two RBI. Salvador Perez ($4,100) is 5-18(.278) with a double and two RBI. Mike Moustakas has two homers against Pelfrey, but he is on the DL. Pelfrey gets a small bit of a reprieve.
Jay Bruce ($4,600) is 8-19(.421) with two walks, three doubles, three homers, and seven RBI already off of Jimmy Nelson. Billy Hamilton ($3,600) is 5-14(.357) with three walks and a double against Nelson. Brandon Phillips ($3,300) is 6-18 with two homers and three RBI. Joey Votto ($4,900) is only 3-15 with two walks and three RBI against Nelson.
A lot of people are on the Matt Shoemaker train today, but I’m not one of them. The White Sox have five homers off of him in 74 at bats. Jose Abreu ($3,600) is only 2-9, but he has a solo homer. Melky Cabrera ($3,000) is 4-7 with a double and a RBI. Todd Frazier ($3,400) is 2-3 with a solo homer. Avisail Garcia ($2,400) is 2-6 with two homers and four RBI. Brett Lawrie ($3,100) is 6-15 with a solo homer off of Shoemaker. There is value to be had here.
Wilson Ramos ($3,800) is 2-8 with a homer and a pair of RBI off of Gerritt Cole.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!