DFS

DraftKings Late MLB Picks For August 10

Jul 31, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Blake Snell (4) throws a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Late MLB Picks For August 10

12 of the 15 games are in the main tournament tonight. We have several options. Nine pitchers cost $9,000 or more. Who is worth the money? Who is a waste of money? Let’s check the past stats for some help!

NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

Blake Snell has a nice 2.95 ERA in his rookie campaign, but the 1.40 WHIP and low strikeout totals leave little margin for error. Especially against a team like the Blue Jays with all of that right handed power. I would avoid this tonight.

Joel De La Cruz has never faced the Brewers. He has compiled a 3.41 ERA in four starts and seven relief appearances this year. He doesn’t strike out many batters, but he could put up decent numbers at a low price.

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Aug 5, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Ervin Santana (54) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet:

Anthony DeSclafani ($9,300): DeSclafani has been brilliant this year, going 6-0 with a 2.94 ERA. The current Cardinals are hitting .250 off of him in 56 at bats and they have homered twice, but they have only scored four runs and have struck out an alarming 15 times. Oh, and they have yet to face him this year, so this was before his breaking out. He is likely one of the safer bets of the night.

Drew Pomeranz ($9,100): The Yankees have been nothing short of dreadful against Pomeranz. They are a pathetic 9-51(.176) with only one homer, two runs, and 12 strikeouts. Add to the fact that the Sox get to beat up on Eovaldi, and you have what should be Pomeranz’s best start in the American League.

Honorable Mention:

Ervin Santana ($9,000): Santana is on quite a roll lately. He has not given up more than three earned runs in a game since June 14th. He has lowered his ERA from 5.10 to 3.62 in that span. Now he gets a Houston team that is hitting a respectable .256 against him in 90 at bats, but they have scored only four runs and struck out a robust 32 times. He might be the best option of the night. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Ryan Vogelsong ($8,300): Yes, facing the Padres inflates prices this much. The Padres are only hitting .222 against Vogelsong in 72 at bats with a homer, eight runs, and 13 strikeouts. These are pretty good numbers, but not great. Still, who in this lineup is going to hit him? If you want to buck trends, Vogelsong will not be widely used. He could provide your lineup some separation.

Dark Horses:

Bartolo Colon ($5,900): The current Diamondbacks are hitting just 5-31(.161) against Father Time with a two run homer by Wellington Castillo being the only blemish. He only has five strikeouts, so that limits his upside and makes him more of a risk. If he can continue the dominance though, he will be a huge bargain.

Aug 3, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Not a stacker? You may not be alone. Matt McGarvey takes his stance against it. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.

The Mariners have managed to hit Justin Verlander pretty well. Nori Aoki ($3,100) is 5-16(.313) against Verlander with five walks and three RBI. Nelson Cruz ($3,500) is only 5-28,(.179), but he has a walk, a double, a homer, and five RBI. Franklin Gutierrez ($2,900) is 10-38(.263) with two walks, two doubles, two homers, and six RBI off Verlander. Adam Lind ($2,700) is only 5-23(.217), but he has two walks, two homers, and seven RBI. Kyle Seager ($3,100) is 6-12 with a walk, three doubles, two homers, and seven RBI off Verlander already. Seth Smith ($2,800) is a modest 3-15, but he has six walks to go with his solo homer. Robinson Cano ($4,200) is 11-41(.268) with three walks, three doubles, a triple, and two RBI against Verlander.

The current Rangers have 19 RBI in just 86 at bats against Jorge De La Rosa, and he is away from his comfort zone (Coors Field). If you are a stacker, there is one here! Ian Desmond ($4,400) is 6-15 with two walks, three doubles, and three RBI against De La Rosa. Jonathan Lucroy ($4,700) is 3-9 with a double and a RBI. Rougned Odor ($4,600) is 2-3 with a solo homer. Adrian Beltre ($4,200) is just 1-7, but he has four walks and the hit is a three run homer. Luckily for De La Rosa, he doesn’t have to deal with Prince Fielder and Drew Stubbs, who combined have two homers and seven RBI.

The Rays have actually fared well against J.A. Happ. Evan Longoria ($4,000) is 10-26(.385) with three walks, two doubles, a homer, and two driven in against Happ. Steven Souza ($3,000) is 5-11 with two doubles and a homer, and two RBI. Logan Forsythe ($4,400) is 5-19(.263) with two walks, a homer, and two RBI. Tim Beckham ($2,900) is 4-10 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Happ.

Yes, the Tigers have hit Felix Hernandez well. Mike Aviles ($2,300) is 7-20(.350) with two doubles and a RBI. Miguel Cabrera ($4,900) is 11-26(.423) with three walks, two doubles, and two RBI against the King. Ian Kinsler ($4,100) is only 19-80(.238), but he has 11 walks, three doubles, four homers, and eight RBI. Victor Martinez ($3,800) is 8-24 with four walks, a homer, and four RBI.

Jose Quintana is having a nice season, but the Royals have hit him hard in his career. Salvador Perez ($2,600) is 18-51(.353) with two walks, four doubles, a triple, two homers, and eight driven in against Quintana. Paulo Orlando ($3,300) is 6-16(.375) with three doubles and three RBI. Kendrys Morales ($3,300) is 10-32(.313) with a walk, two doubles, two homers and seven RBI. Eric Hosmer ($3,500) is only 10-56(.179), but he has two walks, a double, two homers, and ten RBI. Lorenzo Cain ($3,500) is 17-53(.321) with a walk seven doubles and four RBI. Alex Gordon ($2,200) is 12-46(.261) with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Alcides Escobar ($2,400) is 15-56(.268) with four walks, three doubles and five RBI off Quintana. There are plenty of Royals worth playing tonight.

Jason Heyward ($3,400) is 8-23(.348) with three walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, and three RBI against Ricky Nolasco. Miguel Montero ($3,200) could be worth using if he starts. Montero is 6-24 with a walk, two doubles, a homer and seven RBI against Nolasco. Anthony Rizzo ($5,500) is 3-7 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Ben Zobrist ($4,900) is 5-12(.417) with four walks, a double, and a RBI off of Nolasco.

Jul 16, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) stands in the on deck circle against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Gomez ($2,500) is 7-21 with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Ervin Santana. That said, Gomez is in an awful slump, and Santana has been hot.

Brian Dozier ($5,000) is 5-11(.455) with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Dallas Keuchel. Eduardo Escobar ($3,600) is 3-7 with a homer and two driven in.

Andrew McCutchen ($4,100) is 13-31(.419) with seven walks, three doubles, three homers, and nine RBI against Edwin Jackson. Starling Marte ($5,400) is 9-22(.409) with two walks, two doubles, and a RBI. Jordy Mercer ($2,900) is 4-14(.286) with a walk, a homer, and five driven in against Jackson.

Adam Jones ($3,800) is 5-13(.385) with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Ross Detwiler.

Matt Carpenter ($4,500) is 3-7 with two walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Anthony DeSclafani. Brandon Moss ($4,400) is 4-12 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI. None of the rest of the team has anything off of DeScalfani!

Brett Gardner ($3,600) is 2-6 with a solo homer against Drew Pomeranz. Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,300) is 3-5 with two doubles and a walk.

Pablo Sandoval had punished Nathan Eovaldi (13-20 with a homer and 11 RBI). There is no one that can match that, but consider Hanley Ramirez ($3,700). Hanley is 8-19(.421) with a double, a homer, and six RBI against Eovaldi. Dustin Pedroia ($4,000) is 5-13(.385) with a solo homer. Mookie Betts ($5,600) is 5-16(.313), but only has a double so far against Eovaldi.

Brandon Phillips ($4,200) has abused Jaime Garcia in his career. Phillips is 15-51(.294) with a walk, four doubles, two homers, and 11 RBI off of Garcia. Joey Votto ($3,700) is 14-38(.368) with seven walks, four doubles, a homer, and seven RBI against Garcia.

Matt Kemp ($4,300) has blasted Chase Anderson so far. Kemp is 6-14(.429) with a walk, two homers, and five RBI against Anderson.

Jay Bruce ($3,700) has bucked the lefty on lefty rule, going 2-6 with a double, a homer, and three RBI against Robbie Ray.

Melky Cabrera ($3,200) is 5-12(.417) with a walk, a double, two homers, and four RBI against Ian Kennedy. Justin Morneau ($2,900) is 8-22 (.364) with a walk, three doubles, a triple, and three RBI against Kennedy.

Nolan Arenado ($5,200) is only 1-4 against Martin Perez so far, but he has two walks to go with his two run homer.

Yonder Alonso ($3,000) is 8-22(.364) with three doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Yovani Gallardo. Marcus Semien ($3,200) is 4-11(.364) with a walk and a RBI. Stephen Vogt ($3,800) is 3-6 with two walks, a double, and a solo shot off Gallardo.

Mike Trout ($5,200) is 4-13(.308) with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Jason Hammel.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them! Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. They also have other great tools for season-long leagues!

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!