DraftKings Early MLB Picks For August 11
Today is a rare Thursday in that there are more games in the early tournament than the main one. Most of the pitching is cheap, but there is still one ace and two more that are near the top tier. Should we use them or one of the cheap ones? Let’s check out the past stats to try to gain an advantage.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
Jameson Taillon has never faced the Padres. He is off to a good start to his career though, posting a 2-2 record with a 3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts in 52 innings over nine starts. The only teams that have really been able to get to him (four runs in four innings) were the Dodgers and the Cubs. The Padres are nowhere near either of them. Despite not having any past stats to back it up, Taillon is a great option today.
Jose Berrios turned in the best start of his young career against the Astros back on May 2nd. He gave up two runs on three hits and five walks in 5.1 innings while striking out eight in his first major league victory. His high walk rate tempers his upside, but you can’t deny the strikeout potential.
Andrew Triggs has spent most of his time in the AAA bullpen. The Orioles are 0-4 with three strikeouts against him in his previous bullpen work with the A’s this year. Can he have similar success starting the game?
Braden Shipley has been serviceable so far in his big league career, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts. His WHIP is high (1.62), and he is facing Syndergaard, so the chances of him having a good game are pretty low.
Chad Bettis has never faced the Rangers, though Carlos Beltran did go 2-4 against him as a Yankee earlier this year. At any rate, you likely don’t want to use a pitcher with a 5.13 ERA against an offense like the Rangers. It’s not just Coors Field. Bettis has a 4.95 road ERA as well.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bet:
Noah Syndergaard ($11,800): Thor has only faced Arizona once. That was on July 10th of last year. He gave up just four hits and a run in eight innings while striking out 13. This is largely the same Arizona team. Still Syndergaard hasn’t had a dominant outing since before the All Star Break. His strikeout potential keeps him an elite option, but I don’t know if he is $3,200 better than everyone else.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Tillman ($8,400): The A’s are hitting just .185 against Tillman in 92 at bats. So why is he not an elite option? He has given up 12 runs and only struck out 14. The A’s haven’t hit him much, but when they do, its enough to get runs in. His low strikeout totals mean you won’t be able to recoup the runs he gives up. Still, this is a good matchup against Andrew Triggs, who has spent most of the year as a AAA reliever. His win potential is very high.
Dark Horses:
Matt Garza ($5,700): Garza has a superb matchup with the Braves and comeback kid Roberto Hernandez. It still isn’t enough to push his price up. Perhaps it his 5.03 ERA. Take a closer look though, and the current Braves have only hit .217 against Garza with three homers, 15 RBI, and 18 strikeouts. He has never been a big strikeout pitcher and he has little margin for error, but for those of you willing to take the chance, he could pay off.
Roberto Hernandez ($4,200): Hernandez gave up three runs in five innings in his first big league start in over a year on Saturday. That’s good enough to keep him in the Atlanta rotation. He wont go deep into the game, but the current Brewers are just 3-28(.107) against him with a homer, two runs, and eight strikeouts. If you feel like taking a complete stab in the dark, Hernandez could come up big.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Not a stacker? You may not be alone. Matt McGarvey takes his stance against it. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Yes, it’s that Brian Dozier ($4,900) guy again. Dozier is 6-11(.545) with a walk, two doubles, and a solo homer against Doug Fister. Trevor Plouffe ($3,600) is only 4-20, but he has a homer and three RBI. Joe Mauer ($5,100) is only 7-30(.233), but he has three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. If Kurt Suzuki ($3,000) is behind the plate, he is worth considering. Suzuki is 7-25(.280) with a double, a triple, and three RBI against Fister.
Khris Davis ($3,300) is perfect against Chris Tillman with a walk, a double, and a solo homer. Danny Valencia ($3,200) is 5-13(.385) with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI. Billy Butler ($2,800) is only 2-17(.118) against Tillman, but he has a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI if you really want to roll the dice.
Next: More Notes For 8-10
Andrew McCutchen ($4,000) is 2-3 with a solo homer against Christian Friedrich in his career.
Both George Springer ($3,900) and Preston Tucker ($2,900) hit solo homers in a losing effort against Jose Berrios back on May 2nd. Can they do it again?
Freddie Freeman ($5,000) is 4-15(.267) with two walks, a homer, and two RBI against Matt Garza. A.J. Pierzynski ($2,900) is 4-16 with a walk, two homers, and three RBI against Garza.
Carlos Gonzalez ($5,400) is 5-9 with three walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Lucas Harrell. Mark Reynolds ($4,500) is 3-6 with a walk and a solo homer.
Chris Carter ($4,100) is 1-3 with a solo home run against Roberto Hernandez.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them! Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. They also have other great tools for season-long leagues!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!