DraftKings MLB Picks For August 16
We have a full slate tonight. 10 of the 30 pitchers are priced at $9,000 or more. We need to find value, and find some bargains to come out ahead tonight. Is it worth using two high priced pitchers? Let’s check the past stats for some help.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
Ariel Miranda has never faced the Angels. He owns a 6.00 ERA through two starts, so there are better options available on a full slate like today.
Jameson Taillon has never faced the Giants. His career is off to a good start. Taillon is 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He is priced firmly in the second tier of pitchers, but I trust him more than some of those in front of him.
Blake Snell has had a nice rookie season with a 3.18 ERA, but the 1.52 WHIP is high. That said, he is facing a bad Padres team, and could be a great play.
Chad Bettis has been dreadful this year at home and on the road. Stack Nationals against him. They are expensive because they are likely worth it.
The Rangers are 0-4 against Andrew Triggs in relief, but having to face them more than once could prove to be difficult for Triggs.
Joel De La Cruz has never faced the Twins. He has struggled in two starts, and done okay in two. You don’t need to take a risk like this with so many other options available. The Twins can be dangerous.
Kenta Maeda beat the Phillies on Tuesday, but even with the win, he only picked up 12.5 DraftKings points. You should be able to do better. Vincent Velasquez was punished by the Dodgers in that game, giving up nine runs in 4.2 innings. Stay away from him as well.
For you first time players, if you would like $25 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $25 into more!
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Justin Verlander ($12,900): I won’t normally do this, but Verlander is a special case right now. The Royals have solid numbers against Verlander (.253, 9 homers, 48 RBI in 463 at bats), but they have struck out an absurd 108 times! Verlander has eight consecutive starts of giving up one or two earned runs. One of those was against the Royals on July 15th. He picked up 33.6 DraftKings points in that game. If he pulls that off again, he will likely be the high scorer of the night.
Marco Estrada ($9,700): The Yankees have hit eight homers in 174 at bats against Marco Estrada, but he has held them to 16 runs. He only has 27 strikeouts, which limits his upside, but most of the pitchers going have poor past histories tonight. Estrada has only given up three runs in 15 innings to the Yankees this year. He only has eight strikeouts, but he is much less of a risk than most at this price.
Honorable Mention:
Noah Syndergaard ($11,000): The past stats say Syndergaard is still a top option. However, he gave up three runs to this same Arizona team on Thursday, getting just 11.9 DraftKings points. That is a good way to lose a tournament if you get a point per $1,000. The Diamondbacks are still only hitting .217 against Thor in 46 at bats with only three runs, all scored in the last game. The 17 strikeouts help, but he only got six on Thursday.
Anthony DeSclafani ($8,200): The Marlins picked up three run in five innings in their only time facing DeSclafani. Derek Dietrich powered the way with a homer, and DeSclafani struck out only three. But that was last year. This year, he has given up three or fewer earned runs in 11 of 12 starts, and has at least five strikeouts in nine of his last ten. Oh, and the Marlins are without Giancarlo Stanton. This is a good spot for DeSclafani.
Michael Pineda ($7,900): Believe it or not, Pineda has good numbers against the Blue Jays. The Jays are hitting only .208 against Pineda in 120 at bats with three homers, ten runs, and an elevated rate of 26 strikeouts. Two of those homers are by the injured Jose Bautista. Pineda wont be widely used, but he could be a sneaky good play.
Dark Horses:
Braden Shipley ($7,400): The rookie dominated this same Met team on Thursday, pitching seven scoreless innings while giving up just three hits. if he duplicates his 31.4 DraftKings points performance, he will propel your team to money.
Chase Anderson ($6,100): The Cubs are a miserable 4-38(.105) in their careers against Anderson, but two of those hits are home runs. Anderson has only struck out five, so that doesn’t leave much margin for error, but this is the second game of a double header. Anderson could hold the Cubs down again, but he does present a bit of a risk.
Yovani Gallardo ($4,200): Gallardo has been better lately, and he has fared pretty well against Boston in his career. The Sox are hitting a solid .262 off of him in 168 at bats, but he has only surrendered 13 runs. The 27 strikeouts are nothing to write home about, but for this price, you are just looking for someone to get outs. If Eduardo Rodriguez struggles, Gallardo could have a decent shot at a win too.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Not a stacker? You may not be alone. Matt McGarvey takes his stance against it. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
There is a Royals stack to be had against Justin Verlander. Alex Gordon ($2,700) is only 17-83(.205) against Verlander, but he has 12 walks, five doubles, two homers, and six RBI off of him. All Star MVP Eric Hosmer ($2,700) is 19-74(.257) with five walks, five doubles, a triple, a homer, and four RBI against Verlander. Lorenzo Cain ($2,800) is 9-30 with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Kendrys Morales ($2,500) is 13-40(.325) with four doubles, two homers, and an impressive 10 RBI against Verlander. Even Jarrod Dyson ($2,800) could be worth a look. He is 7-29(.241) with four walks, a double, a triple, and three RBI. Salvador Perez will likely be worth the $2,600. Perez is 23-49(.469) with eight doubles, two homers, and a whopping 14 RBI against Verlander.
On the other hand, there are enough Red Sox that hit well to stack against Yovani Gallardo and hope for a blow up. Xander Bogaerts ($3,900) is 3-10 with a double and two RBI. Jackie Bradley Jr. ($4,900) is 2-5 with two doubles and a RBI. David Ortiz ($5,400) is 5-10 with a walk, a homer, and three driven in against Gallardo. Dustin Pedroia ($4,700) is 6-15 with a double and a solo homer off Gallardo.
The Indians are still missing Michael Brantley, who has shredded Jose Quintana, but there are others worth stacking against the White Sox lefty. Rajai Davis ($4,500) is 14-47(.298) with two walks, three doubles, a triple, a home run, and two RBI against Quintana. Jason Kipnis is the same price, but he is 10-41(.244) with four walks, two doubles, a triple, and five driven in. Mike Napoli ($4,800) is 3-15 with a double, a homer, and two RBI. Carlos Santana ($3,600) is only 6-27(.207), but he does have a homer and five RBI.
Miguel Cabrera ($3,800) is only 6-27(.222), but he has eight walks, three doubles, and four RBI off of Danny Duffy. Victor Martinez ($3,100) is 9-28(.321) with two walks, a double, two homers, and five RBI against Duffy. Ian Kinsler ($3,900) is only 5-23(.217) against Duffy, but he has two walks, a double, two homers, and four RBI. If you are really feeling lucky, J.D. Martinez ($3,700) is just 1-14(.071) against Duffy, but the hit is a home run and he has walked twice.
Jose Abreu ($4,000) is 12-31(.387) with a walk, two doubles, three homers, and seven RBI against Corey Kluber. Melky Cabrera ($2,800) is 9-22(.409) with three doubles, a triple, and three RBI against Kluber. Justin Morneau ($2,800) is 6-15 with a walk, a homer, and four RBI. Adam Eaton ($3,500) is 7-31(.226) with three doubles, two triples, and a RBI against Kluber.
Ervin Santana has been good this year, but the Braves have hit him hard in his career. Nick Markakis ($3,600) is 12-44(.273) with a walk, five doubles, three homers, and 10 RBI against Santana. Adonis Garcia ($3,200) is 2-4 with a solo homer. Matt Kemp ($3,200) is just 3-13(.231) against Santana, but he has a double and a solo homer. A.J. Pierzynski ($2,300) is only 9-41(.220), but he has a walk, three doubles, two homers, and three RBI against Ervin. Gordon Beckham ($2,500) is a miserable 5-30(.167), but three of those five hits are homers and he has driven in six runs.
Jeff Samardzija is struggling, so the Pirates may be worth stacking. John Jaso ($2,500) is 1-2 with a solo homer against Shark. Jung Ho Kang ($3,900) is 2-5 with a homer and two RBI. Andrew McCutchen ($3,800) is 13-34(.382) with five walks, five doubles, and two RBI. Gregory Polanco ($4,600) is 3-8 with a homer and three driven in against Samardzija.
You could stack some Yankees against Marco Estrada. For all of his success, the Yankees have still hit him very hard. Starlin Castro ($3,500) is 12-30(.400) with four walks, four doubles, a triple, and a pair of RBI. Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,500) is 7-24(.292) with two walks, two doubles, a triple, and a RBI. Brian McCann ($3,000) is 8-26(.308) with a walk and two RBI. Mark Teixeira ($3,100) is 3-12 with two walks, three homers, and five RBI.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Next: More Notes For 8-16
Edwin Encarnacion ($4,700) is 8-25(.320) with two walks, a homer, and two RBI against Michael Pineda. He is about the only Blue Jay that has hit Pineda well. Will that change?
Jose Altuve ($4,900) is one of the few Astros that was there when they were still part of the N.L. Central. He has fond memories of Jaime Garcia. Altuve is 7-16(.438) with a double and a RBI against him.
Billy Butler ($3,600) is 2-7 with a walk, a homer, and four RBI against Lucas Harrell. Coco Crisp ($4,400) is 4-9 with two walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Danny Valencia ($3,600) is 1-3 with a homer.
Kris Bryant ($5,000) is 1-4 off of Chase Anderson, but that hit is a home run. Jason Heyward ($2,700) is 2-10 with a homer and two RBI against Anderson.
Adam Jones ($4,300) is 4-11 with a walk, a double, a homer, and five RBI against Eduardo Rodriguez. J.J. Hardy ($3,300) is 2-5 with walk, a double, and two RBI. Matt Wieters ($3,100) is only 2-9, but he has a walk, a homer, and two driven in.
Nori Aoki ($4,200) is 4-14(.286) with two walks, a double, and three solo homers against Jhoulys Chacin. Adam Lind ($3,900) is 1-3 with a two run homer.
Evan Longoria ($4,700) is 2-10 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Edwin Jackson.
Ryan Raburn ($3,300) is 7-13(.538) with a walk, a double, three homers, and four RBI against Gio Gonzalez….and the game is at Coors Field. Carlos Gonzalez ($5,300) is 2-6 with a RBI.
Ryan Braun ($5,000) is 9-25(.360) with three walks, a double, three homers, and four RBI off of Jason Hammel. Kirk Nieuwenhuis ($2,500) is 2-7 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Hammel.
Aaron Altherr ($2,900) and Freddy Galvis ($3,900) both took Kenta Maeda deep on Tuesday. Can they do it again? Altherr is in the FantasyPros DFS lineup optimizer every single day. He is still a huge bargain at that price.
Yasmani Grandal ($4,600), Howie Kendrick ($3,600), and Justin Turner ($5,100) all took Vince Velasquez deep on Tuesday in chasing the Phillies ace before the fifth inning was over. Will they have success again?
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!