DraftKings Early MLB Picks For August 17

Aug 12, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Chris Archer (22) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For August 17

There are five afternoon games today. Three of the ten pitchers are priced above $9,000. How many of them should you buy? Are there bargains that you can use to stack the Coors hitters? Let’s check the past stats to find out!

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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

Chris Archer has never faced the Padres. Archer’s inconsistency is maddening for full season owners, but the beauty of DFS is that you can use him in good matchups, and this looks like a very good one.

Carlos Martinez has never faced the Astros. The elevated strikeout potential is definitely enticing, but Martinez has given up ten runs in two August starts. He is going cold, and the Astros have a lot of power. This is a risky play.

Christian Friedrich has never faced the Rays, but his 4.84 ERA paints a cautionary picture. Lefties hit him almost as hard as righties, which is a bad thing against this lineup. Brad Miller is on fire. Stay away from this one.

Coors Field is starting to catch up to Jon Gray. His ERA in August is nearly 10, and his home ERA now sits at 4.84. He is cold, and the Nationals are not. I like Gray, but even I am avoiding him here.

For you first time players, if you would like $25 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $25 into more!

Next: Pitcher Picks

Aug 12, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) throws to the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet:

Stephen Strasburg ($9,400): Strasburg at Coors Field? No problem. All it does is bring his price to a reasonable level. Strasburg has a career 3.44 ERA at Coors Field in three starts. I will take that with the strikeout potential in that Rockies lineup. The Rockies are only hitting .196 in 97 at bats against Strasburg with two homers, eight runs, and an impressive 34 strikeouts. He is still the best of the short afternoon slate.

Honorable Mention:

CC Sabathia ($9,000): Wait, aren’t the Yankees playing the Blue Jays? Yes. Yes they are. However, Sabathia has held the Jays to a .216 average in 259 at bats with an impressive 63 strikeouts. The Jays have managed seven homers and 21 runs, but those numbers are still on the better side of average for that may at bats.

Dark Horse:

Ivan Nova ($6,300): The current Giants team is only hitting .190 in 58 at bats against Nova with an alarming 16 strikeouts. They have also only scored just two runs off of him. Nova has fared much better in the National League so far, posting a 2.92 ERA in his two starts. He wont get a ton of strikeouts, but the price is right for Nova here.

Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?

Aug 13, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Brandon Moss (37) watches his solo home run during the sixth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Not a stacker? You may not be alone. Matt McGarvey takes his stance against it. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.

J.A. Happ pitched very well against the Yankees in back to back games at the end of May, however the past stats still favor the Bombers, so they are worth noting. Brett Gardner ($3,200) is 5-17(.294) with two doubles, a triple, and a solo homer against Happ. Aaron Hicks ($2,400) is 3-10 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI off of Happ. Starlin Castro ($3,400) is 6-20 with three walks, two doubles, a homer and three RBI. Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,400) is 5-18(.278) with four walks, two doubles, and a RBI. Chase Headley ($2,600) is 6-22(.273) with two walks, two doubles, and a solo homer off of Happ.

This is strictly a home run stack against Sabathia. Melvin Upton ($3,900) is the only one that has hit him fairly well. Upton is 15-57(.263) with five walks, four doubles, a triple, three homers, and eight RBI against CC. Justin Smoak ($2,700) is only 4-17(.235), but he has a walk, two homers, and three RBI. Edwin Encarnacion ($5,200) is 13-50(.260) with three walks, four doubles, and four RBI. Russell Martin ($3,900) is also only 4-17, but he also has a home run against Sabathia.

The Cardinals have eight homers in just 95 at bats against Doug Fister. Fortunately for Fister, Matt Adams Brayan Pena, and Matt Holliday are on the disabled list. They have four of those. Matt Carpenter ($4,600) is only 2-10, but he has a walk and a solo homer against Fister. Brandon Moss ($4,900) is 5-10 with a double, two homers, and five RBI. Kolten Wong ($2,900) Is 4-7 with a double, a triple, a homer, and two RBI against Fister.

Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!

Next: More Notes For 8-17

Aug 16, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu (9) runs out his two run home run in the third inning against the Washington Nationals at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Brett Wallace ($2,600) is 2-6 with a solo homer against Chris Archer.

DJ LeMahieu ($4,200) is 4-14(.286) with a homer and two RBI against Stephen Strasburg. Charlie Blackmon ($5,700) is 4-9 with two doubles, but has no counting stats. Nolan Arenado ($4,700) is only 2-11, but he has a walk and a solo homer.

Jordy Mercer ($2,800) is cheap, and he is 1-3 with a solo homer against Matt Cain.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!