DraftKings MLB Picks For August 23
We have a full player pool to choose our DraftKings MLB picks from on this Tuesday. Only two pitchers are priced over $10,000. Should we try to get both on our team? Should we fade them? Let’s take a look at the past stats for some help!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $20 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!
Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
Kenta Maeda is not as dominant as he was early on. He gave up only one run to the Giants in six innings back in April. However, he only struck out four, and the fact that he never goes deep into games limits his DFS upside.
Reynaldo Lopez has never faced the Orioles. He has been brilliant in two August starts, giving up just two earned runs in 14 innings. However, both of those starts were against the Braves. The Orioles are an entirely different animal. I would shy away from this one.
Carlos Rodon has never faced the Phillies, and he is in the middle of a superb August. He has given up just four earned runs in three August starts against three playoff caliber teams (Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore). He looks like a great play tonight!
Jake Thompson has a 8.79 ERA in his first three starts. There is no reason whatsoever to use him.
Jon Gray has never faced the Brewers. His heightened strikeout potential is enticing, but he has given up 19 runs (18 earned) in his last three starts, failing to make it through five innings in any of them. His superb July is a distant memory right now. He may get back on track here, but with a full slate of options, why risk it?
Rob Whalen has a 5.73 ERA through his first four major league starts. He had his best start on Thursday against the Nationals, but I still don’t trust him against Arizona.
Derek Holland has never faced the Reds, and while this is usually the kind of matchup you want, Holland is making his first start since June 20th. He wasn’t sharp in his rehab appearance, and he wasn’t particularly sharp before hitting the DL either. I would steer clear of this.
Sean Manaea has never faced Cleveland. He has had an up and down rookie campaign. He is too much of a risk to use against Cleveland, even with the strikeout potential.
Joe Musgrove was destroyed by the Orioles his last time out, but he didn’t give up a run in his last three innings after allowing eight in the first two. The Pirates aren’t nearly as potent, so Musgrove could get back on track here.
Yordano Ventura has never faced the Marlins. He has been a key part to the resurgence of the Royals. Ventura has not given up more than three runs since July 3rd, and owns a 2.52 ERA in August. The Marlins are pesky, but they aren’t nearly as potent with Giancarlo Stanton out. Ventura could be a nice play tonight.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Jake Arrieta ($12,500): I’m having a bit of a hard time putting Arrieta here considering the Brewers beat him up on Thursday. However, the stats support it. The Padres are hitting only .237 against Arrieta in 38 at bats with only two runs and as many strikeouts as hits (nine). Don’t expect a dominant performance, but expect a quality start at the very least.
Madison Bumgarner ($13,100): The Dodgers are only hitting .233 against Bumgarner in 258 at bats, but they have scored 25 runs with eight homers. The 67 strikeouts means that Bumgarner still has high upside for DFS, but the past stats indicate that this likely wont be a clean outing for the MadBum.
Honorable Mention:
Dan Straily ($7,900): Straily is no stranger to the Rangers from his days in Oakland. Texas is hitting only .214 off of him in 126 at bats with three homers, 18 runs, and 26 strikeouts. When you take out the injured players (Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, and Shin-Soo Choo), the average dips to .176 with no homers and seven driven in with 19 strikeouts in 91 at bats. Those are nearing elite numbers. Straily has not given up more than two runs since July 8th. He has not given up more than three since June 27th. He could be one of the safer plays tonight.
Danny Salazar ($7,700): The A’s are only hitting .231 against Salazar in 52 at bats with an impressive 13 strikeouts. Only the struggling Butler has been able to get to Salazar in his career. That may be easily avoided this year. He has not had a quality start since July 19th, so there is a bit of risk involved.
CC Sabathia ($7,300): CC has had a rough August, but he make get back on track here. First of all, it is in a pitcher’s park at Safeco Field. The Mariners are hitting a respectable .254 against Sabathia in 126 at bats, but they have only homered twice and struck out 44 times. The 12 runs allowed will be erased quickly with that high of a strikeout total.
Dark Horses:
Anibal Sanchez ($6,900): Sanchez dominated the Royals his last time out, but gave up eight earned in his start before that. Past history says he is a good play though. The Twins are only hitting .233 in 133 at bats with just one homer, nine runs, and a robust 35 strikeouts. The Twins’ offense has cooled down again, so Sanchez could be in for a nice game. However, the 5.94 ERA says all you need to know about the risks involved.
Taijuan Walker ($6,100): The current Yankees are only 4-19(.211) against Walker with the only blemish being a solo homer by Mark Teixeira. He has also struck out five. The past stats say that Walker is a solid bet, but he has started just two games since the end of June, and has given up 11 runs in those two starts.
Clay Buchholz ($4,000): The Rays are hitting a decent .241 against Buchholz in 116 at bats, but they have only scored ten runs and struck out a staggering 32 times. The past stats suggest that Buchholz could have a really great output for his price. Especially when you consider that his nemesis, Logan Morrison (5-12 with two homers and six RBI), is out. His 5.42 ERA on the season doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but if he is going to turn it around this season, it will be here or nowhere.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Not a stacker? You may not be alone. Matt McGarvey takes his stance against it. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
The Rockies have driven in 18 runs in just 93 at bats against Chase Anderson. Nolan Arenado ($4,500) is 6-20 with a double, three homers, and seven RBI against Anderson already. Charlie Blackmon($5,600) will be a good option if he can play. Blackmon is 6-24 with three walks, two doubles, two homers, and three RBI. DJ LeMahieu ($4,900) is 4-17(.235) with three walks, a homer, and three RBI. If you are looking to go cheap, check out Rafael Ynoa ($2,400). He is 3-3 with a single, a double, a triple, and three RBI against Anderson. Stay away from Carlos Gonzalez ($4,800). CarGo is just 1-14(.071) in his career against Anderson.
Jon Niese is back in a major league rotation, so you always have a stack option when he takes the hill! Matt Carpenter ($4,100) is 5-12 with three walks, two doubles, and a RBI. Randal Grichuk ($3,700) is 3-12 with a double, a triple, a homer, and two RBI. Jedd Gyorko ($4,200) has been on fire, and he is 6-16(.375) with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Niese. Yadier Molina ($2,900) will come pretty cheap at catcher, and he is 11-31(.355) with three walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Niese. Brandon Moss ($4,800) could do some damage. He is 4-10 with a double and a RBI. Jhonny Peralta ($3,700) is 7-20(.350) with a walk, two doubles, and two RBI. Stephen Piscotty ($5,300) is 4-8 with a walk, a double, a triple, and a RBI. Will he add a homer tonight? Kolten Wong ($2,900) is only 2-9, but he has a double and three RBI against Niese.
The Red Sox, a few in particular, have pounded on Chris Archer. Mookie Betts ($5,100) is 4-18 with seven walks, a double, two homers, and six RBI. Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) is 7-19(.368) with a walk, a double, and a two RBI against Archer. David Ortiz ($4,800) in particular has hit Archer hard. Ortiz is 13-34(.382) with four walks, four doubles, three homers, and a whopping 16 RBI against Archer. Travis Shaw ($3,300) is 3-7 with two walks, a double, and a solo homer off of Archer.
Kyle Gibson has been knocked around by the Tigers. Don’t expect that to change tonight. Erick Aybar ($3,400) is 4-10 with a pair of RBI. Miguel Cabrera ($4,500) is 5-15 with two walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Gibson. Ian Kinsler ($4,200) has punished Gibson. Same for J.D. Martinez ($5,000). Kinsler is 9-21(.429) with three walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI. Martinez is 8-19(.421) with two walks, a double, two homers, and five RBI against Gibson.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Next: More Notes For 8-23
The only Padre that has had any kind of success against Jake Arrieta is Alexei Ramirez ($2,000). Ramirez is 6-16(.375) with a double, the only extra base hit by San Diego off of Arrieta, and a pair of RBI, also the only ones off Arrieta.
Franklin Gutierrez ($3,100) is 7-26(.269) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against CC Sabathia. Adam Lind ($2,800) has bucked the lefty on lefty trend, going 7-15(.467) with a double and four RBI. Nelson Cruz ($4,700) is 5-21(.238) with two walks, three doubles, and a pair of RBI.
Adrian Beltre ($3,800) is 7-24(.292) with a double and three RBI against Dan Straily.
Jay Bruce ($3,100) may be able to get out of his funk against Jaime Garcia. Bruce is 11-47(.234) with a walk, a double, a homer, and five RBI against Garcia. Another lefty has hit Garcia pretty well. James Loney ($2,500) is 4-10 with a double and a pair of RBI.
Do you trust Billy Butler ($2,800) enough to use him? If you do, he is 7-17(.412) with two walks, four doubles, and four RBI against Danny Salazar.
Kendrys Morales ($3,200) is 2-3 with a homer and two RBI against Andrew Cashner. Billy Burns ($2,600) is 1-3 with a triple and two RBI. Eric Hosmer ($4,000) is 1-2 with a walk and two RBI.
Evan Gattis ($3,300) is 1-2 with a walk and a two run homer against Ivan Nova.
Kurt Suzuki is another cheap catching option at $2,700. He is 5-11 with a walk and a RBI off of Anibal Sanchez.Trevor Plouffe ($3,400) has the current Twins’ only homer against Sanchez, but he is only 4-21(.190). Danny Santana ($2,900) is 6-14(.429), but all of the hits are singles and he has only one RBI. Brian Dozier ($4,800) is just 2-23(.087), so stay away from him.
Wilson Ramos ($3,600) is 2-3 with a solo homer against Kevin Gausman.
Joe Panik ($4,100) hit a solo home run against Kenta Maeda back on April 17th. It was the only run that Maeda gave up in that game.
Jeff Francoeur ($3,000) and Freddie Freeman ($5,400) both took Archie Bradley deep in Bradley’s only start against Atlanta. Can they do it again?
Mike Trout ($5,200) has no problems with R.A. Dickey‘s knuckleball. Trout is 6-11(.545) with two walks, two doubles, a triple, and a RBI. It is only a matter of time before he takes him deep.
Enrique Hernandez ($2,800) has torched Madison Bumgarner in his career. Kike is 10-16(.625) with four doubles, three homers, and five RBI. Josh Reddick ($2,300) has managed a 2-3 mark with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against Bumgarner. Justin Turner ($3,300) is 8-38(.211) with three walks, two doubles, two homers, and four RBI.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!