DraftKings Main MLB Picks For August 24
There are ten games in the main tournament tonight. We also have a few aces to choose from. Should we try for two of them since DraftKings has two pitcher slots, or should we find bargains and pay for hitters? Let’s check the past stats for some help.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $20 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!
Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
Rich Hill has never faced the Giants. Hunter Pence ($3,400) is 2-7 with two walks, a double, and a RBI off of him though. Hill’s blister issue has kept him off of a major league mound for more than a month. While there is no issue with his arm, this is still concerning since he could leave the game at any point. I want a more sure thing if I’m going to invest $9,400 in a pitcher.
The Reds are a total of 1-10 against Yu Darvish with four strikeouts. Darvish is one of the safer picks out there. He has not given up more than three earned runs in any of his ten starts this year, and he has at least five strikeouts in every one as well. He is starting to go deeper into games as well. If you are fading Fernandez, strongly consider Darvish.
Tim Adleman has been solid for the Reds so far. He doesn’t rack up a lot of strikeouts, which limits his upside. His matchup against Darvish makes a win unlikely as well. His WHIP is still a little high at 1.40. Texas is good enough to make him pay. I would avoid Adleman here. There is too much risk.
Jerad Eickhoff has never faced the White Sox. Eickhoff has had a rough August, giving up 12 runs in 17.2 innings, but the team has won all three of those games. The White Sox beat up on the Phillies last night. You can likely find a lower risk and higher reward player than Eickhoff tonight.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Jose Fernandez ($12,600): Every site is all over Fernandez as not only the top starter for tonight, but as one of the best DFS plays on the season. His price is rather affordable on DraftKings, all things considered. The current Royals are just 1-16(.063) with eight strikeouts against Fernandez. You likely know all of that. Want a reason to fade Fernandez? He has not gone more than six innings since July 23rd, and he has given up nine runs in 16 innings in August. His strikeout rate is still elite though, which makes him hard to pass up.
Carlos Martinez ($9,200): The Mets are hitting .231 against Martinez in 78 at bats, and they have hit three homers. However, they have only scored six runs and struck out 16 times. Martinez’s numbers are very good against the Mets for this price tag around his neck. deGrom looks like a bargain, but Martinez may be even more of one.
Honorable Mention:
Jacob deGrom ($9,100): Yes, deGrom was knocked around by the Giants his last time out, but is that really enough to knock his price down this far? This is the first time deGrom has been under $10,000 this year! The Cardinals are hitting .242 against him in 33 at bats, but they have struck out 11 times. He has given up four runs, but two of those were driven in by Matt Adams, who is currently on the DL. The past stats, and the low price, favor deGrom tonight.
Julio Teheran ($7,700): Teheran was average against the Nationals in his first start off of the DL. His career stats against Arizona border on elite. The Diamondbacks are only hitting .209 against Teheran in 67 at bats with just one home run, only four runs, and a nice 18 strikeouts. The past stats say Teheran is a great bargain tonight, but is he fully healthy? Healthy enough to give us seven innings?
Matt Boyd ($7,100): Boyd has not given up more than three runs since being destroyed by the Royals on June 18th. He also has a stellar history against the Twins. Minnesota is hitting just .138 (4-29) against Boyd with eight strikeouts, but they have scratched out four runs. The Twins’ offense is in a funk once again, and they haven’t hit lefties as hard this year. Boyd could have a very nice game for the price.
Dark Horses:
Matt Andriese ($5,200): How much do you trust past stats? For those of you willing to roll the dice on a cheap arm, Andriese is your man. The Red Sox are a pathetic 4-30(.133) against him with a whopping 11 strikeouts! All of the hits are singles, and he has not given up a run. He has been hit hard since rejoining the rotation (he has a 7.11 August ERA), but if you trust past stats……wow!
Dillon Gee ($5,100): The Marlins remember Gee, and not fondly, from his days in the N.L. East. The Fish are only hitting .211 against Gee in 123 at bats with just seven runs scored. The injured Giancarlo Stanton is responsible for three of those. They have only struck out 18 times, but you can forgive that for this price. The only problem is that Gee is facing off with Jose Fernandez.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Not a stacker? You may not be alone. Matt McGarvey takes his stance against it. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Arizona has had trouble with the Braves in this series. That may not change against Zack Greinke. Gordon Beckham ($2,700), Matt Kemp ($3,700), and Nick Markakis ($4,100) are 15-61 with three homers and nine RBI against Greinke. The hot Adonis Garcia ($3,400) is 1-3 with a RBI. At least Greinke dodges A.J. Pierzynski, who is 21-56 with three homers and eight RBI off of him.
You may like Rick Porcello tonight, but his stats against the Rays aren’t as good as you may think. They also aren’t as good as you want if you are paying nearly $12,000 for a pitcher. Corey Dickerson ($2,700) is 3-10 with two doubles and a solo homer off of him. At least he dodges Desmond Jennings and Logan Forsythe, both of whom have hit him well. Evan Longoria ($3,800) is 9-36(.250) with two walks, three doubles, and three RBI. Brad Miller ($3,900) has not had trouble with Porcello at all. His 3-11 mark is solid but unspectacular, but all three hits are solo homers. Logan Morrison ($2,400) is back. He is also 6-16 with a double and a RBI against Porcello.
The current Nationals are hitting a robust .410 against Wade Miley in 83 at bats. Chris Heisey ($3,100) has the only home run, a solo shot, but he also has four more hits in 11 at bats against Miley. Wilson Ramos ($4,000) is 3-5 with a double and three RBI. Anthony Rendon ($5,100) also boasts a video game type average. Rendon is 6-9 with two walks and a double, but he has no counting stats. The newly returned Ryan Zimmerman ($4,800) is 5-8 with three walks, three doubles, a triple, and four RBI against Miley.
For all of the trouble that James Shields has had, the Phillies only have four solo homers to show for their 64 at bats against him. That said, Shields has been awful this year. Peter Bourjos, Cody Asche, Ryan Howard, and Cameron Rupp have the homers against him. Don’t be surprised if one or all of the above do it to him again.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Next: More Notes For 8-24
Adrian Gonzalez ($4,800) is 6-22(.273) with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Johnny Cueto. Chase Utley ($3,800) has fared well against Cueto as well. Utley is 10-28(.357) with a walk, a double, a homer, and a pair of RBI.
Martin Prado ($) is about the only Marlin besides Giancarlo Stanton to have success against Dillon Gee. Prado is 8-32 with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Gee.
Jean Segura ($5,200) is 5-15 with a walk and a solo homer against Julio Teheran. Jake Lamb ($3,900) has also had success against Teheran. He has three doubles and a RBI in five trips to the plate against him.
The Orioles as a whole have hit Tanner Roark well, but it has been Jonathan Schoop ($3,500) who has done the damage. Schoop is 2-3 against Roark. Both hits are homers, and he has driven in three.
Eddie Rosario ($3,300) is only 1-4 against Matt Boyd, but he has a triple and three RBI in that one hit.
Kaleb Cowart, C.J. Cron, and Geovany Soto all hit homers off of Marco Estrada earlier this year. Now for the good news: Cron and Soto are on the DL, and Cowart is in the minors. Estrada could be a sneaky play.
Matt Shoemaker has held the Blue Jays to a .222 average, but when they do hit him, it’s hard. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,400) is 1-3 with a homer and three RBI. Josh Donaldson ($4,400) has three hits in seven at bats, but has no counting stats. Michael Saunders ($3,300) only has one hit in six tries, but the hit is a two run homer.
Yoenis Cespedes ($4,200) is 3-5 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Carlos Martinez. The ice-cold Jay Bruce ($4,300) has also hit a solo shot off of Martinez, but it is his only hit in 15 at bats against him.
Justin Upton ($2,900) is still cold, but he is 1-3 with a three run homer against Tyler Duffey.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!