DraftKings Early MLB Picks For October 1
Today’s games are pretty evenly split on the DraftKings table. Seven of the games are in the afternoon, leaving eight for the main tournament. This will deal with the picks for the early games. There are two aces on the mound, and only one more pitcher above $7,300. There is no middle ground. Should you pay for both of the aces on DraftKings? Should we go cheap? Let’s check the past stats for some help.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
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Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
Tim Adleman only gave up two solo homers (to Willson Contreras and Addison Russell) is his first start against the Cubs in six innings. Of course, if he does that again today, that’s enough to lose to Lester. That said, Adelman could be a cheap source of solid points, but starting anyone against the team with the best record in baseball is playing with fire.
Albert Suarez has never faced the Dodgers. You probably don’t want to rush to throw him out there against the game’s best pitcher either.
Phil Klein was knocked around by the Mets earlier this month in relief, giving up two runs in .2 innings. You probably don’t want to throw him out there for a start.
Chad Kuhl didn’t fare so well against the Cardinals his first time around. He gave up three runs in just two innings. Don’t expect much better here either.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Clayton Kershaw ($13,800): Kershaw has absolutely dominated the Giants in his career. They are hitting just .165 against him in 399 at bats with only three homers and just 14 runs scored. And they have struck out – are you ready for this – 125 times! While I wouldn’t expect the Dodgers to push Kershaw too hard, even Kershaw for six innings can do some serious damage.
Jon Lester ($11,100): Lester’s career numbers against the Reds are about average. Cincy is hitting a respectable .232 against Lester in 138 at bats with four homers, 12 runs, and 29 strikeouts. Two of those homers are by the injured Billy Hamilton though. None of those numbers really jump off the page, so why is he up here? Well, Lester has not allowed more than one run in a game since August 11th. He has given up just eight runs in his last 11 starts dating back to July 29th. Think about that for a minute, and you will realize why you need to start him against the Reds. His ERA in five September starts is 0.48!
Honorable Mention:
Bartolo Colon ($7,300): The Phillies are hitting .234 in 205 at bats against Colon with five homers, 20 runs, and 47 strikeouts. Those are pretty average numbers, but if you don’t want to pay up for a pitcher, this is a reasonable price for Colon. He is also facing a September call-up, so he has more than a puncher’s chance at the win. The ageless wonder is a solid SP2 on DraftKings tonight.
Trevor Bauer ($7,000): The Royals are hitting .234 in 107 at bats against Bauer with three homers, ten runs, and 21 strikeouts. All of those are decent numbers. The inconsistency of Bauer always leaves him somewhat of a risk, but he needs a good start here. Cleveland wants to know if they can rely on him in the post season. He has all the motivation he needs to step up.
Dark Horses:
Jaime Garcia ($5,900): Garcia has held the Pirates to a .204 average in 54 at bats with just three extra base hits (all doubles) and two runs while striking out 19. Those numbers look really good. The knock on Garcia this year has been his maddening inconsistency. He has a 6.38 ERA in September while working mostly out of the bullpen. His ERA in August as a starter was 5.06. He is a big risk, but could carry a nice reward.
Luis Severino ($5,100): Severino is still a tentative starter, but it seems as though he will take the place of Masahiro Tanaka. The Orioles are only 9-53(.170) against Severino, but they have hit four homers off of him. To offset that damage, he has racked up 12 strikeouts. Severino carries some risk, but the strikeout potential could have him performing well above his price.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Tanner Roark has had a very good year, but can you image what his stats would look like if he didn’t have to play the Marlins? They are hitting .297 against him in 229 at bats with eight homers and 30 runs. Justin Bour ($3,000) only has four hits in 20 at bats, but he has a walk, two homers, and four RBI. Derek Dietrich ($3,200) is 4-10 with two walks, a double, a homer, and four driven in against Roark. Dee Gordon ($4,300) has six hits in 14 at bats with a walk, a double, and a RBI. Marcell Ozuna ($3,000) is 8-28(.286) with a walk, a double, a triple, a homer, and five RBI. Martin Prado ($3,000) is 10-23(.435) with two walks, a homer, and five RBI. J.T. Realmuto ($3,500) has seven hits in 19 at bats(.368) with a double and four RBI. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900) is only 6-25(.240), but he has three walks, a double, three homers, and four RBI off of Roark.
Luckily for Edison Volquez, Michael Brantley is still hurt. Brantley is 7-11 in his career against Volquez. There are a few other Indians that could make noise though. Lonnie Chisenhall ($3,600) is 7-20 with two walks, a double, a triple, and three RBI against Volquez. Jason Kipnis ($5,100) is 8-25(.320) with three walks, three doubles, and a solo homer. Carlos Santana ($5,100) is only 4-23(174), but three of those hits are solo home runs and he has walked seven times. Francisco Lindor ($4,100) only has three hits in 19 at bats, but he has five walks, a homer, and two RBI. Mike Napoli ($4,200) is only 3-18, but all of the hits have gone for extra bases. Napoli has four walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Volquez. Abraham Almonte ($3,600) is 2-8 with a homer and two driven in.
There is a home run stack to be had against Luis Severino. Mark Trumbo ($4,000) has two hits in four at bats against Severino. Both of them are homers and he has driven in three. Manny Machado ($3,700) is 2-6 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer. Nolan Reimold‘s ($2,700) only hit in three at bats is a solo home run. Steve Pearce ($3,000) has one hit, a RBI double, in his four trips against Severino.
Brian McCann ($3,400) is 5-13 with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Wade Miley. Billy Butler ($3,100) only has three hits in 14 at bats, but he has a walk, a homer, and three RBI. Brett Gardner ($3,400) is 5-14(.357) with a walk, two doubles, and three RBI off of Miley. Chase Headley ($2,700) is 8-29(.276) with three walks, a double, and four RBI. Rob Refsnyder ($3,000) has three hits in six at bats with two walks, a double, and a RBI off Miley.
Next: More Notes For 10-1
Jose Peraza ($3,600) has four hits in eight at bats with a double, a triple, and two RBI. Brandon Phillips ($3,500) is 8-24 with two doubles and three RBI against Lester.
Buster Posey ($3,400) is 20-88(.227) with two walks, three doubles, two homers, and eight RBI against Kershaw. The rest of the team is 46-311(.148) with one homer and six RBI with 109 strikeouts.
Alcides Escobar ($3,000) has five hits in 15 at bats with two walks, a double, and a RBI against Trevor Bauer. Eric Hosmer ($3,500) is 5-14 with two walks, a homer, and three RBI. Alex Gordon ($4,100) only has two hits in nine at bats against Bauer, but he has five walks, a homer, and two RBI.
Ryan Howard ($3,800) is only 6-30(.200) against Bartolo Colon, but he has four walks, three homers, and eight RBI. Freddy Galvis ($3,900) also has a .200 average (5-25) with a double, a homer, and two driven in.
David Freese‘s ($4,000) only hit in three at bats against Jaime Garcia is a solo homer. Sean Rodriguez ($4,300) has four hits in five at bats with a double and a solo homer.
Danny Espinosa ($3,600) is only 3-15 against Wei-Yin Chen, but he has a double, a homer, and three RBI. Bryce Harper ($4,800) is 4-15(.267) with a walk, two doubles, a triple, and three RBI off Chen. Jayson Werth ($4,000) only has two hits in seven at bats against Chen, but he has a solo homer.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from our experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball and stay tuned for advice on Week 4 in the NFL!