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FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for Friday September 30

FanDuel MLB

Sep 29, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) accepts a painting given as a gift by the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports FanDuel MLB

FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for September 30

Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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Friday’s MLB action kicks off at 7:05PM EST with a full 15 game FanDuel Main Slate!

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Time PeriodScorePitcher SalaryPitcher %Hitter %Hitter $/PlayerValue
Season255.4$ 8,64025%75%$ 3,2957.30
5 Day264.2$ 9,26026%74%$ 3,2187.55
Prev Day223.4$ 7,10020%80%$ 3,4886.38

 

Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

FanDuel MLB

Sep 24, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

With only a few days left in the MLB regular season, we get one last 15 game Friday Night Main slate to play! The weather has turned in many parts of the country, bringing wet windy weather to many cities across the US which is having a tremendous impact on the final days of the season.

With the damp weather in many ballparks, we will see offenses continue to struggle to score runs which makes paying up for starting pitcher a great foundation when building your roster.

Yu Darvish ($10,900) takes the mound for the final time in the regular season and gets one of the best match ups on the board with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays strike out a 24.7% clip against right-handers this season which is the third most in baseball and they have seen their team strikeout rate spike to 26.2% over the last 30 days.

Darvish has a 30.6% K rate this season, 4th highest in all of baseball and the highest of any pitcher on the Friday slate. The Rangers ace has struck out at least 8 batters in each of his last three starts and by locking in the largest favorite(-210) on the slate we build not only a safe cash game floor but with Darvish’s strikeout numbers we also have exposure to one of the highest upside arms on the night.

FanDuel MLB

Sep 21, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (44) is congratulated after hitting a two run home run during the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s start with the fact that we have a game in Coors Field with the highest team totals at 12.5 runs which makes this is a clear spot for offense. However as we have become used to, FanDuel has drastically increased the prices on the top bats here which make this game an intriguing fade due to the inflated price points and the fact that other favorable hitting spots exist.

The Padres head to Arizona and with a team total of 10.5 runs and two hittable pitchers on the mound, this is the top pivot away from Coors to give you similar upside at a fraction of the price.

Arizona takes on Edwin Jackson who has exhibited reverse splits, giving up a 35.8% hard contact rate and 1.76 HR/9 to right-handed batters. Jackson has struggled to contain RHB to the tune of a .370 wOBA and .537 slugging and even worse is that those numbers actually go even higher on the road!

Arizona is loaded with high upside right-handed bats and the price points are incredibly easy to slot in while paying up for Darvish. Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900) & Jean Segura ($3,700) are the two hottest hitters and even thought they are the most expensive targets on Arizona they still prvide a discount to the more expensive Coors bats.

Yasmany Tomas ($2,700) & Welington Castillo ($2,800) are two of the highest upside bats at their respective positions and their price points are incredibly valuable with significant room to deliver top point per dollar output.

On the San Diego side the bats are even cheaper and Braden Shipley can be attacked by hitters from both sides of the plate as he has given up a 35%+ hard contact rate to right and left-handed hitters.

Hunter Renfroe ($2,200) has made his immediate presence felt having delivered games of 27.9, 35.4 and 54.9 in three of his last four games. At this price point and in this ballpark, this is the easy top value play and I am happy to make him part of a cheap Padres stack or utilize him as a one of salary saving high upside bat.

FanDuel MLB

Sep 28, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Hunter Renfroe (71) hits a two run home run during the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Below you will find my initial lineup for Friday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.

Best of luck tonight gamers!