Draftkings Week 5 GPP Lineup: Contrarian as Needed to Win

Like most Draftkings players, I believe that one day I will have a Draftkings car pull up at my house and whisk me away to the airport so I can attend my photo shoot at the Draftkings headquarters. Of course there is a Draftkings executive handing me a 10 foot long check for a Million dollars! In my alternative reality I become a professional Draftkings player and never work another day in my life and live happily ever after. It’s going to happen, I can feel it and I have come so close before! Buzz, buzz, buzz (alarm sounds) dream over and here it is, another Friday full of hopes! Now let’s get to our Draftkings Week 5 GPP Lineup!

Sure, we all make our consistent cash game lineups, with low volatility and high floors, so we can enter 50 or so small money H2H’s and 50/50’s so that we can keep our bankroll growing each week. But, the real excitement kicks in when you sit down on Friday and start formulating those GPP lineups. Lets be honest, we are a competitive breed that is always looking for that edge, the differentiator that will set us apart…and we will undoubtedly try anything to see our username in the top 10 of the weekly millionaire maker! But maybe that’s the problem some of us are facing…we tend to be too contrarian.

In building my weekly GPP lineups, I take the approach of using a few “stud” players with good match-ups to make up my foundation and then add some “low-owned” contrarian picks to round out the lineup. If I were to choose 9 contrarian picks I’d bet that I would leave too much salary on the table and the volatility would vastly outweigh the potential returns. So with this approach in mind, lets build our Draftkings week 5 GPP Lineup:

Building Blocks: The first thing we do is download the Sunday 1PM 12 game slate and calculate the value for each player (Projection/Salary per $1k) and see if there are any great values that pop. There are a number of “good” values such as: Eddie Royal, Jordan Matthews and Isaiah Crowell but, there are two value plays that literally jump up and bit me. Zach Ertz and the Vikings defense are great values coming in at 5.87 and 17.2 points per thousand, respectively. Ertz is an astounding 2 full points better than the next tight end and the Vikings defense is almost a full 5 points better than the 2nd best defensive value. Further, you can play Ertz without hesitation as he has been labeled completely healthy without an injury tag.

So, we have the first 2 blocks of our foundation and while reviewing RB’s & WR’s two “stud” players with good match-ups rose to the top. Demarco Murray is our RB1 with a great value due to his 25.2 FPPG and a great match up with the Dolphins 29th ranked rushing defense. Add to that the fact that Mariotta has regressed and the Titans are relying on their run game more than ever, and you have an RB1 with a ceiling that should break 30 this week. The final consistent pick is our WR1, Antonio Brown. I really don’t have to say much more than he is playing the Jets and their 26th ranked passing defense and that: he’s Antonio Brown. So our foundation of consistent, high floor and high ceiling picks is in place and all that is left is to sprinkle a little “volatility dust” on our lineup.

Oct 3, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13) drops a pass during the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Giants 24-10. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports /

Contrarian Picks: So with a nice consistent base in place, it is time to add some volatility so we can be sure that we differentiate our lineup from the field. I see a great week 5 stack that under normal circumstances would be far from a contrarian play: Odell Beckham Jr. & Eli Manning. Given recent times in NY and all the controversy that is swirling around OBJ and Eli, I am confident that they will be lesser owned than normal. OBJ has yet to score a TD in 2016 and Eli has been calling him out but, despite all their troubles, things are not really that bad in NY.

The Giants passing offense is third in the NFL with 1,154 yards and despite not having caught a touchdown, OBJ is 8th in the NFL with 42 targets. Combine those stats with the fact that the Packers boast the 29th ranked passing defense and they have been hit with the injury bug in the secondary – and you have a potentially explosive stack that should be low owned. We can put OBJ in the Flex position since he is the last game in the slate and should something happen (i.e., he gets in a pregame fight and is suspended) we then have more options to pivot to.

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Next, our RB2 is a sleeper pick that has led the Raiders in rushing the last 2 weeks despite the fact that he doesn’t lead the team in touches during that span. DeAndre Washington is an exciting back with great lateral movement and many believe he has more upside than Latavius Murray. Since Murray has been scratched for week 5, we will get a chance to see what Washington can do. I expect a big day given the Chargers have given up the second most fantasy points to running backs in 2016.

The last two WR spots can be filled with WR2’s that are in a great matchup due to their WR1 drawing the opposing defenses CB1. First, since Jarvis Landry will draw a lot of attention from the CB17 Jason McCourty, Kenny stills will see a lot of the 108th ranked CB in the NFL, Perrish Cox. In the last two weeks, DeAndre Hopkins & Amari Cooper were held to low outputs while their WR2’s, Fuller and Crabtree, exploded in the passing game. Second, since Antonio Brown will be putting up his 30 plus points on the Jets CB1 and seeing a lot of double teams, Sammie Coates will spend a bunch of time opposite the NFL’s CB91, Marcus Williams. Given that Coates is the only player in the NFL that has a reception greater than 40 yards in each of the first 4 games, I see a number of deep balls coming Coates’ way.

Next: DraftKings NFL Picks Week 5

There you have it, my week 5 Draftkings GPP lineup. I normally would strive to use as much of the $50k in salary as possible and leaving $1k on the table is out of the norm. But, I like the lineup and the $1k only plays well at WR2 or WR3 where there are a number of options that could fit such as: Enunwa, Beasley, Cruz, Inman, Sharpe and Royals. In the end you have to feel good about your GPP lineup and I am happy with this one…but, I may try some 1 receiver alternatives too!