ALCS 2016: Preview and predictions
The 2016 ALCS between the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians kicks off Friday night. Here’s what you need to know.
The ALCS matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians is a bit of a surprise. No one would have quibbled with you had you chosen the Jays to make it this far, but the Indians have been written off for weeks after losing two of their best starting pitchers.
No matter, the Indians proved their doubters wrong and swept the Boston Red Sox, a popular World Series pick. Both teams blew through their ALDS foes, barely trailing for more than an inning, but the battle to become American League champions should be much more even.
The Blue Jays and Indians both homered their way to division series wins. Toronto has already hit 10 home runs in their four postseason games, including the wild card round. The Indians hit five balls out against Boston.
Both teams feature hitters who have batted .500 so far in the playoffs, Josh Donaldson of the Blue Jays and Jose Ramirez of the Indians. After belting the decisive homer against the Baltimore Orioles, Edwin Encarnacion became the first Toronto player to hit three home runs in the first four games of a single postseason.
From top to bottom, the Blue Jays and Indians have unleashed potent offensive attacks in the playoffs. Most notably, Ezequiel Carerra is batting close to .400 for the Blue Jays. Roberto Perez and Lonnie Chisenhall both homered out of the lower half of the order for Cleveland.
Both offenses are potent, and the Indians actually outscored Toronto on the year. Right now, however, the Blue Jays have been nearly impossible to stop, and are winners of six straight dating back to the end of the regular season. Everything is clicking for the Jays right now.
These two teams are evenly matched on offense. Toronto features more pure star power, but a lack of household names has hardly held Cleveland back this year. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana are both worthy of your attention. The Jays’ and Indians’ lineups both feature patient, smart hitters who will not get themselves out.
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If the Indians do have an edge offensively, it is in the speed department. The Indians have several players capable of swiping a bag, while Carerra is the only Blue Jay who may have the green light to go whenever he wants.
Pitching would have been a huge plus for the Indians if this series was being played in the first half. Unfortunately for the Tribe, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco are both out. Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin managed to do just enough to protect the lead for the first five innings of their starts in Games 1 and 3 of the ALDS.
Corey Kluber is going to have to come up huge for the Indians, but the Blue Jays have teed off against him throughout his career. With J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, and Aaron Sanchez slated to start against Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Mike Clevinger, the Blue Jays have the edge in the starting rotation.
The Indians have the biggest bullpen weapon in the series in Andrew Miller. Terry Francona called upon the best left-handed reliever in the game for two two-inning appearances in the ALDS. Miller was willing to accept a swingman role out of the Cleveland ‘pen after being traded from the New York Yankees. Putting his ego aside has allowed Francona to use his best pitcher in the most high-leverage situations.
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The Blue Jays bullpen was not heavily tested in the ALDS, but has had an up-and-down season. If Francisco Liriano is able to return healthy, the left-hander may be an important multi-inning weapon for John Gibbons.
Speaking of Francona and Gibbons, the Indians will have the edge in the managerial department. Francona has the postseason pedigree and is a World Series champion twice over. Gibbons’ style could best be described as brute force, but it works with the cocky persona of the Blue Jays.
So, who takes the series?
The Indians may have won the season series 4-3, but the Blue Jays outscored them 38-24. Without their number-two and number-three starters, the Indians will be hard pressed to hold down the Blue Jays four times. After looking like they were doing their best to squeeze the collective lives out of their lumber in September, the Blue Jays are swinging free and easy, hitting nearly everything a long, long way.
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The Pick — Blue Jays in six. Kluber is able to shut the Blue Jays down once and Tomlin’s ability to stay away from hard contact allows another game to be stolen. In the end, the Blue Jays are just too much for the Indians.