2016-17 NBA Preview: Dallas Mavericks

With the retirement of Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Amare Stoudemire, among others, an era of basketball is receding into the sunset, and there are few guys left — especially ones with significant roles. Dirk Nowitzki, who made his debut in 1998, is still around and kicking, starting for a team that’s fighting for the playoffs. At some point, he’ll be gone too, and we need to take every opportunity left to appreciate his game and his legacy.

“Time flies over us, but leaves its shadow behind.” – Nathaniel Hawthorne

2015-16 in review

The Mavericks were about as close to league average as a team could get. They had an adjusted point differential (via Basketball-Reference) of -0.02; they won 42 games; and they were 11th and 17th, respectively, in offensive and defensive efficiency. It was enough to make the playoffs with the sixth seed, but they were dispatched by the Thunder in the first round. It was a typical Rick Carlisle team too — the team lacked elite talent but they won with past-their-prime veterans and young guys who weren’t heavily recruited. There just wasn’t enough firepower.

Rotation players in: Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut.

Rotation players out: Chandler Parsons, Zaza Pachulia, Raymond Felton.

The Mavericks’ off-season looked good only from a certain point of view. The optimistic angle: they stole two starters from a 73-win team. Reality: they gave a max contract to a starter who was pretty close to average and an older center with a scary injury history. It’s tough to even argue Barnes is an upgrade over their last small forward, Chandler Parsons. Bogut is a defensive upgrade over Pachulia, but Zaza was quietly underrated. He had the rare combo of being underrated while nearly undeservedly making an All-Star team. Felton won’t be missed due to their glut of guards and his play last season, but they didn’t have much else coming in. Overall, it was a disappointing summer for Dallas, who regularly come up short in big free agency chases.

2016-17 Projected

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The Mavericks are a veteran team, a year older with a new small forward and a new center. Those are the meaningful inputs. At center, Andrew Bogut rates higher than Zaza Pachulia on a composite measure — Bogut’s defense, at times in the near past, has looked sensational with certain metrics. The problem is his playing time. If he’s healthy, overall he’s a slight upgrade; otherwise, if things go south with his health, they’ll be out of the playoff race, unless someone like Salah Mejri has an unexpectedly good season.

At small forward, I’m seeing a pretty sizable downgrade. Harrison Barnes, even though he was on a historic team, did not rate well by a wealth of measures. That’s been pretty consistent through his career, even when they tried to make him a more featured player before Steve Kerr. It’s no secret I’m not a fan of Barnes; but I’m laying out the evidence again. I’m truly curious how his numbers will change without the influence of his teammates. Should he really be expected to play better without Stephen Curry drawing attention at 30 feet from the basket?

Harrison Barnes’ biggest advantage over Chandler Parsons was health. Parsons was a much better passer and creator off the dribble. He was a better scorer in general too, and while Barnes was strong enough to guard post players the separation on defense overall isn’t large. The passing issue isn’t immaterial either because as I’ve found players with high assists translate and fit well on other teams with a high degree of success. The fact that Barnes was never a high assist player even while playing in different systems and different coaches, and with some of the greatest shooters ever, is worrisome.

The Mavericks bought a young kid with the kind of money you’d give a star scorer, and the old team needs that kind of help. Dirk Nowitzki verges into unplayable territory on defense. Their guards include Deron Williams, Devin Harris, J.J. Barea, and Wesley Matthews, who recovered from an Achilles injury. Given their ages and their positions, being a year older is an important distinction. Andrew Bogut too, of course, is in his early 30’s. Age alone will take a large bite out of the team, and there are a few other small factors driving down their projected rating, like opposing three-point percentage and free throw percentage luck. It’s enough to push them out of the playoffs for the second time in 17 years.

Quick graph

Now for a fun one: Dirk Nowitzki’s outside shooting is unique for someone his size, but I think we’ve forgotten just how unique it is. For example, guys listed at seven-feet tall rarely take three-pointers, and he has one of the highest totals ever. Plotting him against other players his size isn’t fair. The nearest guy is over a thousand away, and you have to sum the totals of the eight next players to eclipse Dirk’s. Arvydas Sabonis is sixth; BJ Mullens is seventh; and Vlade Divac is ninth — that’s how sparse the list is. Who even remembers more than one Divac three-pointer? Dirk may not be such a ridiculous outlier in another generation, however. Kelly Olynyk and Kristaps Porzingis, among others, are part of a new crop of three-point shooting big men.

2017-preview-dal-3 /

Summary

The Mavericks invested a lot of money in a small new forward, and the numbers I’m using for projections see him as a slight below average player and a downgrade from the production they had last season. They’re already fighting age and a few regression factors — their point differential last season suggested a 40 win team. Many people see them as a 40 win team again, but it’s all about how you rate Harrison Barnes. I’m not one to bet against Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki, and the front office is as good as nearly everyone in finding good players with limited resources, but at some point everything fails — and Dallas could this year.

Win predictions:

Mine: 36.0. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching.

Andrew Johnson’s: 41. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 42. A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 36. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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