2016 NBA Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

Much was made of Oklahoma City’s young core — Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden — and how they had the potential to win multiple titles. It may have been the greatest haul a franchise has ever had from drafting over a handful of seasons. But only one guy is left, and it’s hard to imagine them renewing their contender status any time soon. This is the fragility of the league, where one day a superstar looks invincible and a couple years later everything has changed. Westbrook is staying, and now they have to find a way to rebuild, even though they had drafted a first-ballot Hall of Famer and some All-Stars just a few short years ago.

“Easy. It’s the place to be. The people there are great. The team, the people here take care of me, and take care of my family and friends. It’s a good place to play basketball.” – Russell Westbrook on re-signing

2015-16 in review

In a normal season, Oklahoma City would have been a feared contender, but they got lost in all the Warriors-related noise. Thanks to an unfair combo of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, they were a sensational team on offense. They were elite in shot-making, and their stars were so great at creating their own shots they could get away with playing two big-men frequently, including Enes Kanter at power forward. Thus, they led the league in offensive rebounding.

They were actually pretty average on defense. They didn’t force a lot of turnovers, and their offensive rebounding prowess did not extend to the other end of the court. Even so, they stormed past the Spurs in the playoffs and took the Warriors to seven games. Injuries notwithstanding, it was still an impressive season, but not everyone was satisfied.

Rotation players in: Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova, Domantas Sabonis.

Rotation players out: Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Dion Waiters.

I suppose everyone reading this knows the news here: they’ve lost Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. Collectively, that’s a lot of outside shooting out of the door, and small forward is now pretty shallow — who’d have figured? The Dion Waiters experiment ended too, mercifully; Victor Oladipo is basically the fully realized version of Waiters anyway. Ilyasova is a stretch four, like Ibaka, but he rebounds and blocks shots like a perimeter player. Sabonis was bought with the Ibaka trade; he doesn’t grade out as the strongest prospect but he’s a different look than Enes Kanter at power forward and he’s a lot younger than Ilyasova.

2016-17 projected

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The Thunder are now, for better or worse, Russell Westbrook’s team. Projections are generally based on individual player value, and there’s an interesting divergence there: some metrics saw Kevin Durant as the superior player, while others pegged it as Westbrook. Due to Westbrook’s Oscar Robertsonian level of points, rebounds, and assists, some metrics, like BPM and RPM, see him as a wrecking ball, while ones that value either more subtle actions or efficiency more see Durant as the superior player. Since both were so central to the value of the team, it’s a key starting point in determining how good they’ll be now.

Elsewhere, Victor Oladipo is the other significant change. A combo guard like Westbrook, he’s a good enough shooter to keep defenses somewhat honest, but ideally his minutes should be staggered to maximize his and Westbrook’s value. He’s a good enough ball-handler to handle those minutes. Quantitatively, his value isn’t high, but he’s still young and above average. Given how they’ve struggled to fill the shooting guard slot over the years, we should all be satisfied — at least it isn’t Dion Waiters.

The Thunder’s wing situation is a mess overall though. Andre Roberson is the likely small forward, but his inability to shoot strangles their offense and his usage rate of 9.1 percent was one of the lowest ever. Kyle Singler’s shooting should bounce back, but his overall game is limited and he can’t check top scorers. Anthony Morrow, quietly one of the greatest shooters of his generation, though in a limited role, is below average on defense in every conceivable way. But without Durant, the Thunder will be missing elite outside shooting. Lastly, Alex Abrines is an international guard without NBA experience. He’s a good shooter, which is useful for the team now, but it’s unclear how well he’ll defend.

There’s no ideal player for small forward or as backup shooting guard to Oladipo. The rotation should be matchup dependent because Westbrook is unwilling to concentrate on defense for long stretches of a game, leaving Oladipo to the tougher assignments. Thus, if a team only has one good perimeter player on offense, they can get away with Morrow on the court, and his shooting would be worth the effort. Of course, if they face someone like Golden State, they’ll want Roberson on the court. Unfortunately, starting lineups aren’t malleable, so we’ll likely see the same one for the most the season, barring injuries, but the key will be how Billy Donovan responds during the game. Power forward offers a different dilemma, from the perimeter-oriented Ilyasova and Sabonis to the bulldozing Enes Kanter. There’s an important balance at those spots, and they’re matchup dependent; with the right combinations it’s easy to see them hit 50 wins.

Quick statistic

There are a number of subtle adjustments one could do for a win prediction, and one outlined last year is pretty intuitive at the surface: adjusting for usage. Basically, there’s only one ball on the court, so when high usage players come together their value correspondingly declines; and vice versa: teams with a bunch of low usage players look better than expected. So one might surmise that this could help the 2017 Oklahoma City team, but they actually have one of the most modest adjustments. Durant had a high usage rate, but Oladipo’s was nearly 10 points better than Serge Ibaka’s. Miami, meanwhile, lost Dwyane Wade and a few others, while the Bucks lost Khris Middleton and Dallas brought in two low usage players in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. An adjustment here helps Oklahoma City, but the effect is minor.

2017-preview-okc-usg /

Summary

Since we’ve already seen the Thunder without Kevin Durant for long stretches of the schedule in 2015, I think we all have a pretty good idea at what the team will be like without him this season. Overall, they haven’t changed the rotation of the team too severely, with the exception of the Serge Ibaka-Victor Oladipo swap. Thus, sane predictions have them in the mid-40’s win range. A few things have changed since 2015, obviously; they had Kevin Durant for part of 2015 and were much better with him. They’ve added enough pieces to alleviate some of the pressure on Westbrook, but he’s the lone All-Star talent for now and the rotation pieces, besides Oladipo and Steven Adams, aren’t too strong.

Win predictions:

Mine: 42.2. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching and usage.

Andrew Johnson’s: 44. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 42. A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 46. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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