Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 16 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 369 a night which means we have needed 6.1x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eleven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Before we dive into this slate and go through our ideal roster construction, the biggest takeaway I had initially was how much value was available at every single position. On a night where we want to fit in James Harden AND Anthony Davis, there are tons of value options to choose from which make this very easy to do!
Tyler Johnson ($5,000) Although we do not yet have confirmation, that fact that Goran Dragic is in a walking boot makes it unlikely he would suit on Saturday night versus the Jazz. Tyler Johnson is poised to step into the starting PG spot and should see massive minutes and usage as one of the primarily play makers for Miami.
Dragic has the second highest usage rate on Miami and without him in the lineup, I expect Johnson to soak up much of that usage. In his last three games playing over 30 minutes (which seems like a lock in this spot), Johnson has averaged 32.8 FD points which would hit 6.5x value at this price point.
Marcus Smart ($4,900) Dropping down another $100 we get to roster the new starting SF of the Boston Celtics for another great value play!
Smart stepped into the starting lineup on Friday night against the Knicks and put up 12 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds for 39.2 FD points for 8x value! The Celtics have the 4th highest team total going against the Pacers in a 2.5 point spread game and should see one of the biggest pace increases on this slate which makes Smart a top bargain play at the PG spot!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,500) As I mentioned in the open, with SO much value on this slate it makes paying up for James Harden AND Anthony Davis very easy to do and my preferred strategy.
Harden has eclipsed 50+ FD points in each of his last five games and gets to take on the same Spurs team he just put a triple-double on in his last game! This feels like a spot where without Harden in your lineup you are going to have a tough time hitting the cash line so even if he is the chalk play, I think you have to pay for it and look to differentiate with the value options you can find across the board!
Sean Kilpatrick ($5,300) The Phoenix-Brooklyn game should be FULL of fantasy goodness and is a spot you are going to want exposure to! The game has the highest combined team total (219) and with only a 5 point spread we should see the starts play the full complement of minutes.
I expect many people will look to pay up for Devin Booker ($6,500) as the Nets are dreadful against opposing SG (25th in DvP) but I am happy to be a bit contrarian here and take Kilpatrick who has seen his price rise to where many may simply overlook him.
In his last game without Jeremy Lin and with Isiah Whiteside out with a concussion, Kilpatrick got the start at PG and if he gets the same draw tonight he faces a suns team 28th in the league in DvP against opposing PG’s.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
T.J. Warren ($6,100) Staying in Phoenix, I will look to go back to one of my favorite DFS plays in T.J. Warren who gets to take on a Nets team 25th in the league in DvP against SF’s. Warren is coming off back to back down games so those simply looking at the box score may dismiss him but he is still playing major minutes (38 minutes in 4 of his last 5) and has hit 6x value in 2 of his last 5 games. This is a great spot to utilize Warren has he gives you cheap exposure to the highest scoring game on the night and has one of the best individual match-ups on the Suns roster.
C.J. Miles ($4,400) Similar to Marcus Smart, Friday night gave us a new starting player as the Pacers opted to bench Monta Ellis and insert Miles into the starting lineup. Miles has been a great source of value off the Pacers bench and tonight he gets to face a Celtics team tonight that is 28th in DvP against SG’s this season.
Miles has hit 20 FD points in each of his last six games which makes him a safe cash game play and he has the opportunity and match-up to absolutely crush value for GPP’s. This is the exact kind of player I want to target if I am building around Harden/AD!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Anthony Davis ($11,600) The Brow is coming off back to back 50+ point games and with a favorable match-up against the Lakers, I would expect that streak to continue. As I noted in my write up for James Harden, this feels like a slate where you need to lock in the 100+ points that AD and Harden will give you and look to differentiate elsewhere. In large GPP’s I am fine playing a strategic fade if you are doing multiple lineups, but in cash games or single entry tournaments, I am starting with Harden and AD in every lineup!
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Markieff Morris ($5,400) With Bradley Beal likely out again on Saturday and John Wall already ruled out, the Wizards offense should run through Markieff Morris and I expect his usage to be insane! The Bulls are 19th in DvP to opposing PF’s this season so the match-up is one we can exploit and the price point is frankly too low for a player that will be the key component to the Wizards offense.
In the same game I expect people to Box Score chase Otto Porter but with his price over $1k more than Morris, we can attack the same game and abandoned Wall/Beal usage with Morris. Markieff is coming off a 30 FD point game on Friday night and I expect this will be his floor on Saturday night with significantly more GPP upside without Beal and Wall!
Alex Len ($5,700) The center position looks like a great spot to pay down at and another chance for us to target the Suns and Nets. The Nets are 27th in DvP to opposing Centers and with Tyson Chandler likely out again Saturday due to the unfortunate passing of his mother, Len should be in line for the start again. In his last game, Len started and put up 16 points, 14 rebounds and 40.8 FD points which is good for 7x value.
If you need additional savings, drop down even further to Kelly Olynyk ($3,500) who started on Friday night and put up 19 points, 7 rebounds and 30.9 FD points in 30 minutes. As I noted, there is a TON of value on this slate so feel free to pay up for the studs tonight! Good Luck!