NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – November 23
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 26 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 370.5 a night which means we have needed 6.17x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with THIRTEEN games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Welcome to a little pre-Thanksgiving NBA feast as we get a loaded 13 game slate before the off-day for the league on Thursday. With a slate this size and with so many Vegas totals still not released, this will be a day you need to keep an eye out for lineup news throughout the day to make sure you find value as it appears!
Isaiah Thomas ($8,200) Studying this slate initially upon its release, this feels like a night where we should look to a more fair and balanced roster construction instead of forcing the studs into our lineups. The big dogs all have question marks either related to injury (Anthony Davis), tough DvP match-ups (James Harden and Russell Westbrook) or potential blowout spots (LeBron James and Kevin Durant).
The Celtics/Nets game has one of the highest initial team totals (214) and with the game in Brooklyn, the spread of 7.5 should mean we see a full complement of minutes for the starters. The Nets are dead last in DvP to opposing PG’s this year and this should be a spot where IT2 absolutely feasts on Wednesday. In the only prior match-up this season, Thomas put up 25 points, 9 assists and 6 rebounds for 46.7 FD points which is the second highest output he has so far against any team this season! Fire up IT2 again in this one!
Kyle Lowry ($8,600) The Raptors and Rockets have the highest implied team total (218) on the slate and with a 3 point spread this is going to be a game you want to ensure you have exposure to. I expect most people will look to this game and try to fit in James Harden or DeMar DeRozan but Kyle Lowry is the top play for me!
Looking over his game logs, Lowry has hit 39.5 FD points+ in 8 of his last 9 games, a measure of his consistent all around game. On this night I am looking to build a well-rounded roster of consistent 30-40 point plays and finding the right match-ups to where there may be hidden upside in their prices. Lowry gets to face an up-tempo Rockets team that struggles to guard opposing PG’s and if he can draw some James Harden defense, he could be in for a monster night!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Rodney Hood ($5,600) On large slates like this one, the shooting guard $5-$6k range tends to be a great pace to build rosters as we have a ton of options in favorable spot which makes paying down here a viable strategy.
Hood has perhaps the best match-up on the board as he faces a Denver Nuggets team that is dead last in the NBA in DvP to opposing SG’s. Hood had this same match-up his last time out and disappointed as he put up only 20 FD points in 31 minutes but this may actually keep people off him tonight and help us get him at a sneaky ownership level.
Digging into the box score from last game, Hood took 12 shot attempts (in line with his season average) but shot only 25% including missing all five of his three-point attempts. Hood is a 45% shooter from the field this season and has hit over 2 3-pointers per game so chalk this up to a cold shooting night and go back to the well for a big time rebound performance.
Dion Waiters ($5,200) At some point the Dion Waiters gravy train is going to stop rolling but are we really going to fade the gravy train on the eve of Thanksgiving? Waiters has exceeded 6x value in 3 straight games as he has put up at least 32 FD points in each contest.
The Heat have gone to a 3 guard set in the absence of Justise Winslow and with Winslow already ruled out again in this one, expect the same formation to be utilized which should allow Waiters to continue his strong recent play. Keep in mind that Waiters is nursing an injury and although he is expected to play this is one we will want to confirm is a full go before lock!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Kawhi Leonard ($8,500) I do not normally go out of my way to roster the Spurs players especially on large slates but after their lackluster performance against an undermanned Mavericks team on Monday night, this has the makings of Popovich inspired beat down for the Spurs as they take on the Hornets.
If you did not catch the coach’s post game comments, just take a look at this and you will see what I mean!
This is entirely a gut feeling pick but on a veteran team with one of the most well-respected coaches in the history of the sport, this feels like a spot where the Spurs come out super aggressive and the price points are deflated enough where we could see some high value returns.
Kawhi has hit 40+ FD points in 3 of his last 4 games and in a game that Vegas expects to stay close (4 point spread), I am looking to build around the Spurs star and his fantasy friendly all-around game!
Wilson Chandler ($5,900) Although the match-up against the Jazz is not one we typically look to target, Chandler continues to be a great mid-range SF target for DFS players as he has hit 34 + FD points in 3 of his last four games. Now it is fair to point out that the one game he didn’t hit that mark was against the Jazz when he only put up 22 FD points so I can understand your hesitation.
Last night against Chicago and Jimmy Butler‘s elite defense, Chandler managed to rack up 16 points, 9 rebounds and 34 FD points so the upside is there even in tough games. The most appealing point of last night’s game is that Chandler took a whopping 23 shots on offense! This is the second time in the last week he has shot the ball over 20 times a game so he makes for a tremendous GPP flier in a game most will likely overlook!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,900) Heading back to narrative street here, I am looking to employ a mini-stack of Kawhi and LMA against the Hornets! Aldridge got the last game off due to rest so he should be ready to roll in this one and at a sub $7k price point he should be in a spot to deliver exceptional value. Prior to his game off, LMA had put up 39.2 FD points per game in his prior two contests and should be in position to meet a similar output with upside for more with Popovich demanding improvement!
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Larry Nance Jr. ($3,900) This one is going to be an injury specific wait and see play but with Juluis Randle questionable with an injury, this could be a spot to fire up Nance if he gets the start against Golden State. This Lakers-Warriors game is largely a stay away spot for me as with D’Angelo Russell already ruled out and potentially Randle also sitting out, this could get ugly quickly and I want to limit my exposure here to the value plays. If Nance gets the start he would get to take on a Golden State team that is 26th in the league in DvP to opposing PF’s and would be in a spectacular position to crush value at under $4k.
Al Horford ($7,200) One last time to head back to Boston! Horford has come back from his concussion and performed at an elite level with a 47 and 42 FD point performance in each of his last two! The Nets are dreadful across the board defensively and are 26th in DvP to opposing centers so this is a spot where we can pay down, lock in 40+ FD points from our center and hope this game stays close enough where Horford can flirt with a 50 burger!
Next: College Football Pick Em Picks
Best of luck on Wednesday Night in your NBA FanDuel contests. Enjoy your Thanksgiving with family and friends, safe travels and we will see you back here for Friday night in the NBA with Picks and Pivots!