NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – November 30
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 31 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.7 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with ten games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,400) We play fantasy sports for fun. We sit back after a long day and can enjoy rooting for players across the league in our lineup. You know what is not fun? Watching Russell Westbrook play basketball when you decided to fade him!
I understand the play in tournaments and initially my gut reaction here on a larger slate was to consider the fade, but there is so much value already on this slate it makes it easy to fit him in on FanDuel.
OKC has the third highest projected point total on the slate at 109 which is 2 points higher than their season average so this is another great spot for BeastBrook! On Monday night on a shorter slate, Westbrook was 33% owned in the $2 Single Entry GPP so with a $400 price increase AND a larger slate is it possible we could see him under 30% owned? Fire up Westbrook 100% in cash games and with the salary savings from the next guy on the list, look to ride him in GPP’s as well as he rides towards another triple double!
Andrew Harrison ($3,700) With the news that Mike Conley will be out for 4-6 weeks, Harrison steps in as the starting point guard for Memphis and makes for one of the best value plays on the board and an easy high/low pairing with Westbrook!
Harrison is locked into 30+ minutes with Conley out of the lineup and at this price point would only need 22 FD points to hit 6x value. Harrison averaged .65 FP/M without Conley on the floor this season so with 34 minutes of run in this one, would be able to hit 6x value based off that average. In his last two games where he has played 35+ minutes, Harrison has exceeded 6x value in both instances so this is a spot where minutes=opportunity and we can lock him in as a top value play!
In cash games, Harrison is a lock but keep an eye out during the day on the industry buzz around Harrison as he may be over hyped and would make for a potential GPP fade.
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Zach LaVine ($6,200) Shooting Guards against the Knicks – always. The Knicks are 29th in the NBA in DvP against opposing SG’s and we should look to exploit this match-up every night they play in DFS!
LaVine is coming off one of his best games of the season against Utah where he poured in 28 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists for 46.6 FanDuel points. The Timberwolves are projected to be one of the highest scoring teams on this slate and LaVine gets the best match-up of any Minnesota player from a DvP perspective. The price point here is reasonable and the upside is legit which makes LaVine one of the best SG plays on this slate!
Rodney McGruder ($3,900) Another minutes=opportunity play here as the Heat continue to be ravaged by injury which has opened up value across multiple positions. With Justise Winslow and Dion Waiters already ruled out, McGruder should continue to get major run as he has played 30+ minutes in each of his last four games and gets to face a Denver team dead last in the NBA in DvP to opposing SG’s.
McGruder has yet to top 20 FanDuel points so the ceiling may not be high but if there is any match-up where McGruder is capable of exceeding value it would be in this spot against Denver! Miami is expected to score 3 points more than their season average and sees one of the highest pace bumps on the slate so we can utilize the match-up and minutes to help pay for the high-end stars on this slate!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Glenn Robinson III ($4,700) & Maurice Harkless ($5,000) The Portland-Indiana game has the highest projected combined team total on this slate and both teams see material pace increases which makes this a spot we need to have exposure to on this slate.
Robinson and Harkless are great ways to fill two tough SF spots on FanDuel and they get you exposure to this game in a very favorable way. Portland is 22nd in the league in DvP to opposing SF’s and with Paul George still out due to injury, Robinson is in a spot where he should continue to excel!
Robinson has played 39+ minutes in each of his last two games and has averaged 28 FanDuel points which would be 6x value at this price point. As I noted earlier, there is a ton of value on this slate and Robinson is another value play locked into starter minutes that makes a Stars/Scrubs approach easily doable on this slate.
Harkless has been one of my favorite DFS plays over the last two weeks as he continues to be a consistent 25-30 FD point producer as the Blazers starting SF. Over his last four games, Harkless has been a 5x/6x player in every single game and with Portland having the highest team total on the board (and no Paul George defense to contend with), Harkless is a great mid-range play at SF!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Paul Millsap ($7,500) Power forward is an interesting position on this slate as no player is priced above $7.5k, but I believe this is a spot where we need to take the guy at the top end of the spectrum and lock in Millsap against Phoenix.
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The Hawks are projected to score the 4th highest point total and see the biggest per game scoring increase (5.9 points) and biggest pace bump of any team on this slate. The Suns are one of the best DvP match-ups for opposing PF’s and Millsap sits at a price point that is easy to slot in with the bigger names on the slate. Millsap typically goes overlooked in DFS and I expect most will look at PF and immediately look to drop down in price so Millsap makes for an interesting pivot in one of the best match-ups on the board.
***UPDATE: Millsap is questionable for tonight’s game due to injury. With a 9PM EST start we may not get confirmation prior to lock. Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500) sits at the same price and is an easy pivot within the same roster construction. Mike Muscala ($3,900) would become an elite value play!
Thaddeus Young ($5,500) Heading back to the shoot-out between Indiana and Portland, we have another player at a mid-range price in a great match-up we can exploit(seems to be a theme on this slate right?).
Portland is dead last in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s and Young will continue to see a usage bump (roughly 2%) with Paul George out of the lineup. Per RotoGrinder’s CourtIQ tool, Young averages .76 FP/M with PG off the court with extended run he should be a solid cash game play on this slate and has the match-up we look for in GPP’s.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900) Boogie is officially in fade at your own risk territory and he has been a big part of my recent success in DFS as he has been routinely putting up monster numbers.
Cousins has back to back 60+ point outings and has exceeded 50 FanDuel points in 7 of his last 8 games. Cousins gets to match-up with the Sixers who are 20th in DvP to opposing centers this season. I love the idea of pairing Westbrook/Cousins tonight with all the value we already have and will look to employ this pairing in the majority of my lineups tonight!
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests – keep an eye out on Fantasy CPR’s Twitter account throughout the day for late breaking lineup news and roster updates! See you back here on Thursday!