DraftKings NBA Picks for November 30
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for November 30
Two thirds of the league is in action for the main DraftKings tournament tonight. Most of the high priced players went last night, so tonight’s studs will be more widely used. Does that mean we should stay away, or should we separate ourselves from the pack with the bargain picks?
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We will still provide DraftKings picks while they are still a separate entity. The DraftKings/FanDuel merger may even force some of us onto smaller DFS sites like Yahoo, but we wont have to deal with that until baseball season at the earliest. So let’s enjoy the unique perks of DraftKings while we still can!
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($12,600): How do you put a price on a player who has three consecutive triple-doubles, and who has six in his last ten games? Westbrook is four assists and five rebounds shy of making it ten straight. He is matchup-proof, and is a triple-double threat every night. You take a huge risk by fading him, even against a solid perimeter D like the Wizards.
John Wall ($9,300): Wall has 50 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games. The Thunder are 23rd in the league in fantasy points allowed to point guards, so expect Wall somewhere around 50 once again, which is easily 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Damian Lillard ($8,600): Lillard has four straight games of 40+ DraftKings points. One of those was nearly 70! Don’t expect that high of an output against the Pacers, but considering they are 20th in the league in points allowed to point guards, Lillard should see above 5x value once again.
Eric Bledsoe ($7,600): Bledsoe had a bit of a slow start to the season, but he has really turned it on lately. Bledsoe has topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. With Atlanta on tap for tonight, he has a good shot at making it four of five.
Dark Horses:
Dennis Schroder ($5,900): Everyone has lit up the Suns. They are the second worst team in points allowed to point guards. Expect Schroder to far exceed 5x value. I expect him to hit at least 6x value.
Andrew Harrison ($4,000): Harrison played well earlier this year with Mike Conley out. Now with Conley out an extended period of time, expect Harrison and Wade Baldwin to shoulder the load once again. Harrison will get first crack at nailing down this job. He will have no issues reaching 5x value tonight since he is still on a backup’s salary.
My pick: Schroder(PG), Harrison(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,000): DeRozan has yet to slow down. You can excuse his down night against Philly. He should rebound nicely against a Memphis team that has had difficulty defending the perimeter so far this year. DeRozan has hit at least 5x value in all but two games this year.
Victor Oladipo ($6,600): Oladipo was on quite a hot streak until he ran into the Knicks on Monday night. He had been riding a streak of seven games with at least 30 DraftKings points. I think he gets back on track tonight against a Washington team that is middle of the pack against shooting guards.
Honorable Mention:
Bradley Beal ($7,300): Beal has been on fire lately, posting 45 or more DraftKings points in four of his last five games. So why isn’t he a top tier option? Because the Thunder are ninth in the league in points allowed to shooting guards. Beal should still be near 5x value, but it’s hard to say he can have another 45 point outing.
Devin Booker ($6,300): Booker is purely a shooter, so he is only recommended when facing a defense that allows a lot of open shots. Atlanta does that out on the wings. His price makes counting on 5x value risky, but he has reached 6x value twice in his last four games. In the two games that he missed the mark, he was under 4x value. So do you feel lucky?
Dark Horses:
Avery Bradley ($6,200): Bradley has kept his minutes well above 30 even with the whole backcourt now healthy in Beantown. Bradley is a solid shooter, but he does enough other things well that he almost always hits his value. He is averaging nearly 6x value in the season!
Wesley Matthews ($4,400): Matthews played 39 minutes even in with the return of Deron Williams. It appears that Seth Curry lost the most minutes. You want one of them playing tonight considering the Spurs are so poor on the outside and they will be in the second night of a back to back. Matthews appears to have the edge for now.
My pick: DeRozan(SG), Booker(F), Bradley(UTIL)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($9,000): Butler is a scoring machine, which makes him a solid play at all times. However, twice over the last four games he has slipped below 5x value because scoring has been the only thing he has done. The Lakers are 21st in the league in fantasy points allowed to small forwards. The points will be there. Will everything else?
Andrew Wiggins ($6,500): Wiggins’ hot streak is over, but he has a delicious matchup with the Knicks tonight. At this price, he is still a good bet to hit at least 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Rudy Gay ($6,900): The Sixers are pretty weak against small forwards, and Gay is still the model of consistency. The problem here is that Gay’s price leaves him averaging just short of 5x value. The good news is that the matchup will let him increase his average. Philadelphia is 23rd in the league in points allowed to small forwards.
Otto Porter ($6,500): Porter has had at least 5x value in five of his last seven games. The Thunder are in the middle of the pack against small forwards, but what makes Porter intriguing is the fact that he does many other things besides score. Porter has at least seven rebounds in each of his last eight games. That’s ten points just in rebounds.
Dark Horses:
Tobias Harris ($5,700): Harris had a big game last night against the Hornets. Statistically, the Celtics aren’t quite as tough as Charlotte at SF. Could this be another big game for Harris? I wouldn’t expect 43.25 DraftKings points again, but with Marvin Williams still out, he should exceed 5x value without a problem.
Maurice Harkless ($5,400): Harkless is another one of those players who isn’t flashy, but he does put up very consistent numbers. Harkless has been over 5x value in seven of his last nine games. Look for that trend to continue against a Pacers team that will likely be without Paul George and C.J. Miles again.
My pick: Harkless(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,800): Cousins just racked up 72.5 DraftKings points with a broken middle finger on his shooting hand. In fact, Cousins has been over 55 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games, even eclipsing 6x value in three of those. The 76ers are really weak against power forwards, but if this turns into a blowout, Cousins may get some rest late in this one.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700): Porzingis has averaged 41.5 DraftKings points over his last eight games. He started the season slow, but Porzingis has become arguably the most consistent player for the Knicks right now. You can trust him, even against Minnesota.
Honorable Mention:
Paul Millsap ($7,500): His production across the board makes Millsap a solid option, but his struggles from the field have kept him from being a consistent 5x value producer. However, against the Suns tonight, shots and rebounds should be more plentiful which could increase his value a bit.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,400): In what was a poor all around game for the Spurs last night, LMA still managed 30 DraftKings points. With many Spurs possibly getting a rest against Dallas in the second night of a back to back, someone will have to pick up the slack. It could be Aldridge in the middle.
Dark Horses:
Taj Gibson ($5,500): Gibson has only been under 20 DraftKings points once on the season. He gets consistent minutes and consistent stats. Gibson is nothing flashy, but he is a sure source of 5x value on the season.
Ersan Ilyasova ($4,700): The trade out of Oklahoma City worked out well for Ilyasova, who has received a solid minutes load even in games when Embiid doesn’t rest. Considering that he needs only 23.5 DraftKings points for 5x vlaue, Ilyasova is a low risk option if you need to go cheap. He has hit that mark in four of his last five games.
My pick: Porzingis(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Hassan Whiteside ($8,800): So long as Whiteside stays out of foul trouble, he is nearly a lock for 50 DraftKings points. He has only been under that mark three times in the last nine games. Two of those games he was in foul trouble. The other was against a really good Detroit interior.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,300): Towns has been a victim of the ineffectiveness of the Timberwolves offense lately, but he has still managed three straight games over 40 DraftKings points. Expect him to eclipse that tonight with relative ease against a Knicks team that has given up the fourth most points to opposing centers.
Honorable Mention:
Joel Embiid ($6,500): Embiid has only been below 30 DraftKings points twice in his rookie campaign, and routinely flirts with 6x value. The scary part? Embiid is only getting better. He has averaged 40 DraftKings points per game over his last four. Since he rested on Monday, expect Embiid to be back in the lineup tonight against the worst team in the league against opposing centers.
Marc Gasol ($7,100): Gasol is about as consistent as they come. He does so many things well that he rarely drops below 4x value. The Raptors have done better against opposing centers lately, but Gasol will still get his 35-40 DraftKings points.
Dark Horses:
Marcin Gortat ($5,800): Gortat will never wow you with his stats, but he constantly sticks around 4.5-5.5x value. If you are looking for consistency with your cheap pick, Gortat is an intriguing option against a relatively weak Thunder interior.
Enes Kanter ($4,500): If you want consistency, go with Gortat or Kanter’s teammate Steven Adams. However, Kanter has a lot of upside. He has topped 30 DraftKings points four times and 40 DraftKings points twice on the season. The bad part? He is notorious for missing 5x value even at this low price.
My pick: Embiid(C)
Next: FanDuel NBA Picks November 30
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, our DFS NHL picks, and plenty of NFL advice heading into your weekend. We will also have the college football picks against the spread. You don’t want to miss any of this!