FanDuel NBA - Lucky 7's - Top Plays for December 15

Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports FanDuel NBA /

FanDuel NBA – Lucky 7’s – Top 7 Plays for December 15

Welcome to FanDuel NBA Lucky 7’s where I lay out my top 7 players who are simply intriguing buys for their respective match-ups. The “confidence” ratings reflect how risky each player is with “$” being very risky, and “$$$$” being a pick I’m very confident about.

FanDuel NBA – PG – Damian Lillard @ Denver $9,500

Pros: Lillard has been in somewhat of a funk over his last 5 games averaging only 39.2 Fanduel Points a game, so for his current $9,500 salary he has definitely been a bit disappointing. However, he’s played OKC, the Clippers, Indiana, Memphis and Milwaukee. So there hasn’t been a whole lot for him to exploit in terms of his matchups. Only Indiana yielded a decent game for him over those 5 when he cashed in an OK 48 FDP line on $9,500.

Denver is different from the likes of those other teams though. They currently allow almost 109 points a game. This match up is projected to be the highest on the night at a heavy 221.5 point total, so it’s a potentially great environment for Lillard to flourish and get back to his all-star ways.

Cons: If Denver decides to log Nikola Jokic heavy minutes in an effort to try to disrupt the Blazer’s run game, we may see the final outcome shift a bit from what Vegas has projected. CJ McCollum for $7,400 poses the biggest threat to Lillard’s fantasy value but he is still their clear #2 option. So just expect the Blazers to run their offense through their franchise point guard to get a very winnable one in Denver tonight.

Confidence: $$$$

Nov 22, 2016; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks guard Brandon Jennings (3) reacts during the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel NBA PG – Brandon Jennings @ Golden State $4,800

Pros: Keep a very close eye on Derrick Rose‘s status throughout the day, because if he’s a no-go, Brandon Jennings is going to be handed the enormous task of matching up with Golden State’s super-powered offense. Even if Rose does end up playing, I could imagine Jennings’ effective ability to score being utilized a little more in order to help keep up with the likes of Durant and Curry.

Not to mention there are just so many awful plays at point tonight. Do you invest $9.1k into Stephen Curry into a game where Golden State is favored by 14? Do you play Eric Bledsoe for $8.3k against the Spurs? Your alternates at PG for around the same price include the likes of Jameer Nelson $4.4k, Emmanuel Mudiay $4.9k, and Patty Mills $4.4k who I would be looking at heavily if there’s a positive update on Rose. (With Mudiay being the super sleeper!)

Cons: If Rose does play, it may cut too deep into Brandon Jennings minutes for him to have a chance to get into a rhythm. If this plays out as so, you may have a dud on your hands especially if this game stays close. Also, Brandon Jennings scoring numbers per 36 minutes have been the worst of his career, as he’s only averaging 12.4 FDP per 36 in his time with the Knicks.

Confidence: $$$ (Rose out), $ (Rose in)

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Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel NBA – SG – Will Barton v. Portland $5,200

Pros: Like the Jennings/Rose scenario tonight in Golden State, you must keep an eye on Wilson Chandler‘s status today because if he’s indeed out, Will Barton should see a massive uptick in value against Portland. I’ve talked about how many points Denver gives away, but Portland gives up over 111 points a game themselves!

Barton isn’t the most poised player offensively, but can absolutely slice up a bad defense, and it’s hard to do much better than Portland who certainly fit that bill. He recently had a 40.1 Fanduel point game against Philadelphia who allow 106 points on the year with Wilson Chandler active. So Barton against Portland who couldn’t stop a nosebleed with the prospect of Chandler out, is certainly a tantalizing play at SG.

Cons: If Chandler plays and Gallinari decides to be more aggressive, Barton may not see the production we need for him too. Also, note that Gary Harris at SG is also a GTD. Harris more than likely wont see a ton of minutes after having missed the last month with a foot injury, still his return on a Denver roster that is already pretty log-jammed at SG/SF isn’t good for Barton’s fantasy value. Still at $5.2k, that price is just too low to bet against as he’s cheaper than both Chandler and Galinari.

Confidence: $$$$ (Chandler out), $$ (Chandler in)

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Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel NBA SG – Klay Thompson v. New York $6,500

Pros: I’m struggling really hard with NY at Golden State tonight, because I’m trying to figure out how to bet against Kristaps Porzinigis. Sure he had 2 incredible back-to-back games with 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 blocks against the Lakers for 58.4 Fanduel points on $7,400, and a 34 point, 8 rebound, 3 block, and 3 steal line against Phoenix for 53.6 Fanduel points on $8,000. However, the Lakers and Suns are not Golden State, and now his price sits at $8,300 matching up against Draymond Green who has a current defensive rating of 99 opponent points per 100 possessions.

Don’t get me wrong, Porzingis certainly has enough game to match-up with the Warriors. All I’m saying is, is if you’re bold enough to bet against him tonight and his sky-high ownership percentage, have a look at Klay Thompson as the ultimate Bet-Against-Porzingis play. If the Knicks come out and get bombed, it’s likely Thompson will be one of the main gunners, and it’s also a possibility Porzingis will get pulled out early. The Knicks I’m sure want to get one in Oakland, but after winning 6 of their last 8, they may opt to not beat Kristaps into the ground with an easier one coming up in Denver Saturday night.

Cons: If Porzingis comes out of the gate hot and mirrors Golden State’s bombardment-fest successfully, I may be eating crow on this one. To have both Thompson and Porzingis to me would be very risky as the spread is currently Golden State by 14. $14,800 to me is a lot to invest in a game that may not be competitive to the last-minute. I like Thompson here, but he’s definitely risky. So as you build your lineup, save him for your 6-8th entry.

Confidence: $$

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Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel NBA PF – Nikola Jokic v. Portland $6,000

Pros: I typically hate the “Player X had a great game against Team Y the last time they played, so he’ll have another great game against them again” formula. For example Brook Lopez dropped 50.5 FDP earlier this year against the Lakers on the road, but lastnight against them at home only cashed in 30.4 FDP on a $7,500 ticket. So I never adhere to that mentality when constructing a lineup.

Although for what it’s worth, Jokic against Portland at home in only his second game this season dropped a colossal 24 point, 17 rebound, 4 steal line for 55.4 Fanduel points on a $6,000 ticket. He just so happens to be playing the same team, at the same place, for the same price! To not have Jokic tonight at only $6k would be an arrogant move and could sink your lineups quickly.

Cons: I can see no real downside to having Jokic in your lineup from a statistical standpoint, but if you were looking to bet against him, you better get Kenneth Faried in your lineup because in his last matchup with Portland on the road (Once again with the formula I hate) he put together a nice line of 18 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 blocks for 45.3 Fanduel points on a $5,100 ticket. Honestly though, Jokic is just the common sense play in this one, but his ownership will be exuberantly high. So even if he has a stellar game it most likely will not boost you very high into the victory margin.

Confidence: $$$$ (Chandler out), $$ (Chandler in)

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Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel NBA C – Tyson Chandler v. San Antonio $5,600:

Pros: Tyson Chandler is currently averaging 31.7 Fanduel points over his last 4 games while averaging only $4,950 in salary, so he’s providing a nice return rate of almost 6 points over his value reflecting price. If you happened to catch what he put together against the Knicks 2 nights ago, he pulled down 23 rebounds and poured in 13 points. Granted this was without having to share minutes with Alex Len, but Len is listed as a GTD again tonight with the same bruised hip. Even if Len does Play, it’s not likely he’ll be at 100%, so Chandler should be very active in the paint against the Spurs as a 7 point underdog.

Cons: Let’s say Len does come out of nowhere and plays as if he never had a hip ailment. That would certainly cut into Chandler’s rebounds and minutes. Also, if this game turns into a run-and-gun shootout led by Phoenix’s spectacular young backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker (If somehow the Spurs can’t figure out how to slow them down, which I doubt), this game may end up going over Chandler’s head too much for him to get seriously involved down low.

Confidence: $$$$ (Len out), $$ (Len in)

Dec 13, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls center Robin Lopez (8) shoots the ball against Minnesota Timberwolves forward Gorgui Dieng (5) during the first half at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel NBA C – Robin Lopez @ Milwaukee $5,100:

Pros: In small slates like this it’s essential that you dig deep for sleepers in order to sneak past your competition and centers are where I typically look first. Even a mediocre center can rack up plenty of points in putbacks and blocks in a match-up where he needs to play a big role in the paint. Robin Lopez against Milwaukee for $5.1k gives you a ton of flexibility to work with at your other 8 positions, and I have a hard time imaging he’ll be a complete dud.

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Milwaukee isn’t an elite shooting team and takes it to the hole on almost 60% of their points. So if the ball makes its way into the paint like you can typically expect from Milwaukee, Robin Lopez should have plenty of opportunities to be a fantasy factor. Even f he only ends up chipping in 20 FDP tonight, he shouldn’t cripple your lineup.

Cons: He’s still very mediocre on offense. So, ask yourself if you can really afford to allot him into the only center slot you get. With other options at Center like the aforementioned Tyson Chandler for $5.6k, you may be better off opting for him instead if you have an extra $500. Other interesting alternative plays at center include Myles Turner for $6.2k, and Mason Plumlee for $6.2k. Look to Lopez only if plugging in the likes of one of those 3 throws off the rest of your lineup financially.