Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 63 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.8 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Monday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Malcolm Brogdon ($4,300) The Bucks are one of the most exciting young teams in the NBA built around two young superstars in Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks may have found the third piece to the puzzle with the emergence of rookie guard Malcolm Brogdon who has stepped in as the starting point guard and responded with a triple-double in his second career start!
The starting PG spot opened up due to a hamstring injury that has kept Matthew Dellavedova out the last two games and we may be looking at a scenario where Brogdon takes this gig and never looks back. Delly is a GTD for tonight with that injury so we should keep an eye out for an update as the day goes on, but Brogdon would be an elite value play against OKC if he gets the start again!
The Thunder are ranked 25th in DvP versus opposing PG’s this season so this is a match-up Brogdon should be able to exploit. In his previous two starts, Brogdon has racked up 21.8 and 43.2 FanDuel points so the 6x+ GPP upside is clearly evident for a player that should see major minutes at a bargain price!
Shelvin Mack ($3,800) With the news that George Hill and Dante Exum will miss Monday’s game, we can welcome Shelvin Mack back into our DFS lives for some elite value! The Jazz get the benefit of facing a Brooklyn Nets team that is giving up the most fantasy points of any team in the NBA and is ranked dead last in DvP to four of the five positions on the court!
The Jazz see the biggest pace increase of any team on the slate and are projected to score 105 points which would be over 6 points higher than their season average. The price points on the Jazz as a whole are highly reasonable and a full on stack of the Jazz is a viable roster strategy today!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($11,300) With all the savings we have at the point guard position tonight, we can afford to spend up at SG tonight and we should look to build around the guy who just dropped 89.7 FanDuel points in his last outing!
Patrick Beverley is questionable for tonight’s game against Washington and if he remains out, we should continue to see Harden dominate as the primary PG for the Rockets. In his last outing against the Knicks, Harden put up 53 points, 17 assists and 16 rebounds and gets to face a Wizards team he already put 53.5 FanDuel points on earlier this season!
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,200) If you are a regular reader of Picks and Pivots, we recommended going with a Harden/Giannis stack on Saturday night and it resulted in some big time cash finishes as a result as those two players put up 160 FanDuel points on their own!
Harden’s near 90 point night was the talk of the DFS community but do not overlook the 70 FanDuel point outing that Giannis dropped on the back of 35 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists and 7 blocks!
The OKC-Milwaukee game should be an absolute track meet with a 211 combined team total and 2 point Vegas spread. I am looking to go back to the well with a stack of the top two SG’s on the slate and believe we have enough elite value to make this stack work easily within our roster construction!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Gordon Hayward ($7,700) Heading back to Utah, I am looking to lock in Gordon Hayward at SF who will see a significant usage boost with George Hill off the floor. With Hill off the floor, Hayward sees his usage increase to nearly 32% and has put up 1.12 fantasy points per minute this season with Hill on the bench.
Over his last five games, Hayward has eclipsed the 30 FanDuel point mark in each contest and has 40+ points in two of those five contests. Hayward will be one of the key pieces to my roster construction on this slate both as a stand alone play and as part of a Jazz stack!
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($4,700) MKG continue to be a steady fantasy producer at the small forward position and provides a level of stability and consistency which is rare for his sub $5k price point.
MKG has 30+ minutes in six straight games and continues to be a very solid play as long as Marco Belinelli remains out with injury. In his last six games, MKG has eclipsed 20 FanDuel points in five games and has hit for over 30 in two of those contests.
The Hornets took on the Bulls just a few days ago and in this same match-up, MKG put up 12 points, 9 rebounds and 4 steals for 35.8 FanDuel points which would exceed 7.6x value at this price point!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Derrick Favors ($4,900) Tonight may be the last night we get to roster Favors for under $5k and a match-up against the Nets will likely make him a highly owned value option at PF tonight. We have seen his minutes steadily increase since his return from injury, settling in now around the 25 minute mark and producing nearly a fantasy point per minute in his last outing against Phoenix.
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Enes Kanter ($5,400) Kanter has been a steady fantasy asset over the last two weeks, exceeding 29 FanDuel points in five of his last six games. At his price point, Kanter has been hitting 5x value in each of those games and has eclipsed 6x value in two of those games which reflect the upside that Kanter has at this price point.
Rudy Gobert ($7,700) One last player from the Jazz, I promise! As I mentioned earlier, the Jazz not only have the best match-up on the board but none of their top players are priced over $8k which allows you to not only stack these players but also allows them to fit into a roster construction where you pay up for Giannis/Harden.
Gobert now has 16 double-doubles in his last 19 contests and should be able to dominate the interior of the Nets defense tonight. With Brook Lopez spending most of his time near the three-point line, Gobert should be able to flirt with 20+ rebounds tonight and is my top center target on the board!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR Twitter all day for late breaking line-up news and roster updates!