FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 4
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 65 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.6 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with seven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Before we jump into tonight’s slate, a reminder that we publish this article prior to 6AM EST and on tonight’s slate with SO much injury news still open, things are likely to adjust throughout the day!
Kemba Walker ($8,400) With so much uncertainty across the board tonight, the point guard position is one where I feel very confident early on locking in on specific targets. The Hornets take on OKC in a game with a 209 total and 2.5 spread and Kemba gets to face off against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder’s 23rd DvP rating to opposing PG’s.
Kemba has been playing at an elite level the last two games, averaging over 35 points, 8 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game while racking up 46.2 and 56.2 FanDuel points in each of his last two contests. Kemba averages over 3 FanDuel points per game more at home this season than on the road and in a pace up game against Westbrook, we could see another 50 burger tonight!
Goran Dragic ($7,000) The Heat are an injury depleted mess right now as only eight players were well enough to see the court in last night’s match-up against Phoenix. Tonight they get another favorable match-up against Sacramento and with Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow already ruled out, Dragic should continue to run the Heat offense and get all the minutes he can handle tonight.
Part of me wants to go all in on the Heat due strictly to the value and usage, but they are on a back to back and could have only a handful of bodies if players like James Johnson, Dion Waiters and Tyler Johnson are forced to miss another game tonight due to illness.
Dragic played 38 minutes and racked up over 40 FanDuel points in Tuesday’s nights game against the Suns and with his price remaining at $7k tonight, he will be a highly popular core play at PG!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Victor Oladipo ($5,400) It has been two games since Victor Oladipo returned to the Thunder and at a price point like this, it is hard not to take notice when building your roster construction. Oladipo has returned and played 29 and 36 minutes so there is clearly no minutes restriction we need to worry about and he has averaged just over 25 FanDuel points in those two contests.
What was most encouraging to me, is last game Oladipo put up 12 shot attempts and his ability to get peripheral stats (5 rebounds and 4 assists) helps him to build a relatively safe floor in the Thunder’s offense. At this price point, he would need only 32 FD points to hit 6x and considering he was right at 30 FD points last time out, this is a spot where we can target significant upside above this price point!
Josh Richardson ($6,000) The price point continues to creep higher for Richardson and considering he has failed to top 30 FanDuel points in each of his last two games, he may be slightly over priced. However, this is also a player that is logging major minutes, over 35+ in each of his last three games, and faces a Sacramento team that is 23rd in DvP to opposing SG’s.
This is a spot where injury will likely determine how heavy my exposure to Richardson is as SG is littered with questionable plays tonight and if the Heat continue to be short-handed without players like Tyler Johnson this becomes an immensely dangerous fade!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Jimmy Butler ($9,300) On Monday night, when the late breaking news hit that Dwayne Wade AND Rajon Rondo would sit, those lucky enough to pivot to Jimmy Butler were able to sit back and count their money. I stayed on my Kyrie Irving-less LeBron and Hayward plays and although they were solid, ultimately my entry fees became charitable contributions by not rostering Butler.
Part of me says not to chase the points, as his 81 FanDuel point outing was carried by a 62% FG% and a season high 21/22 from the Free Throw line. These are clearly unsustainable numbers as they blew well past his season highs, but if Wade and Rondo sit, can we really afford to fade a guy with a 40%+ usage who averages almost 1.5 fantasy points per minute without them on the floor?
As I mentioned, I write this article the night before/into the early morning so many things will change and frankly I do not know what to make of this game. Dwayne Wade is a GTD, LeBron James has the flu, Kevin Love lost over 10 points due to a stomach bug and Kyrie is still hurt. The injury news here is going to completely change this slate so be prepared!
Carmelo Anthony ($7,500) The Knicks have the second highest available team total and with Kristaps Porzingis doubtful for tonight’s game, the offense will likely run through Melo. The SF position is extremely top-heavy tonight and I anticipate I will be spending up at both spots but Melo feels a bit under-priced considering the absence of KP.
Milwaukee is giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing SF’s on the season and without KP on the floor, Melo sees a nearly 6% usage bump which makes him a must play in my opinion tonight. With KP off the floor this season, Melo is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute so if we assume a typical 35 minute night for Anthony, 40+ fantasy points seems a near lock with upside for more based on the match-up.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Jabari Parker ($7,200) With Porzingis out and my desire to roster Carmelo, Parker will be my likely correlation play to get some Bucks exposure tonight! The Knicks have struggled all season to contain opposing big men and with KP off the floor, I expect that Parker will be able to dominate the interior of the Knicks defense.
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Parker has played 40+ minutes in three of his last five games and although the production has been erratic, he has exceeded 40 FanDuel points in four of his last ten games. On a night with so much uncertainty, I like the idea of locking in the guaranteed minutes for Jabari and considering the Bucks have the third highest team total and a 1 point Vegas spread, this is a game I want to ensure I have exposure to across my lineups.
Taj Gibson ($4,700) When the Bulls and Cavs met earlier this year, the fantasy star of that game was not one that most expected. Taj Gibson finished that game with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 44.7 FanDuel points!
In that game both teams were at full strength in that game so Gibson must be licking his chops at the potential for the Big 3 to be on the sidelines!
Willie Reed ($4,000) I started to write this piece on Tuesday night and I will be honest, the name Willie Reed was not even on my radar. I may not have the marbles to roster him Wednesday but it would be irresponsible as someone who covers DFS not to mention this guy to my readers as they have not have seen what he did Tuesday night.
With Whiteside and seemingly the entire Heat roster out, Reed stepped up big time with 22 points, 18 rebounds and 51.6 FanDuel points, outscoring DeMarcus Cousins at center!
Are we point chasing if we go back to the well? Maybe? Is there foul risk with him going up against Boogie tonight? Yes.
Get ready for a wild night in DFS folks, as Willie Reed may be the chalk play of the evening!
Next: FanDuel NFL Playoff Picks
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA lineups and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!