FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 5
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 66 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.7 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Looking over this slate, the immediate question you need to ask yourself is whether or not you will roster Russell Westbrook and/or James Harden as the Rockets and Thunder square off in the highest total game on the slate. I am not going to sit here and tell you that either player is a bad play but with both players at $12k on FanDuel, can you utilize your budget in a better way?
In the two previous match-ups this season, Westbrook has put up 49.9 and 52 FanDuel points while Harden has yet to crack 46 FanDuel points. With the amount needed to roster these players, can we fade these two pricey stars and look to a more balanced line-up?
D’Angelo Russell ($6,300) Russell has not been a player I have looked to roster often this year as his early season injury combined with a crowded Lakers back-court have led me to pass over him more often than not. However, Russell may be finally turning it on as he has now exceeded 30+ minutes in six of his last seven games and has double-digit shot attempts in each of those games.
Over his last two games, Russell is averaging 37 FanDuel points per game and has put up 21 three-point attempts during that time! The Lakers-Portland game has the third highest team total on the board and with a 3 point spread, this is a sneaky game to target that will likely be over-looked with the Rockets-Thunder on this slate!
Reggie Jackson ($6,400) Jackson seems to be a consistent member of the Picks and Pivots family and with his recent play and mid-range price point, I am going back to the well again tonight! Over his last three games, Jackson is averaging 38.8 FanDuel points and has now played 30+ minutes in each of his last six games.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
C.J. McCollum ($8,000) With Damian Lillard unlikely to play again on Thursday, we can fire up McCollum as the primary scorer and point guard for the Blazers. In the five games that Lillard has missed, McCollum is averaging 43.3 FanDuel points per game and tonight he gets to face off with a Lakers team that is giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing PG’s.
McCollum comes into tonight’s game off back to back 50+ FanDuel point outings against Golden State and Minnesota and becomes the prime Harden pivot at SG for $4k less with similar 50 point upside!
UPDATE: Latest reports are that Damian Lillard WILL PLAY. This makes McCollum a legit fade candidate with Dame back on the court! I will look to pivot down from McCollum and lock in Sean Kilpatrick ($4,400) who will get a massive usage bump with Jeremy Lin ruled out. After two duds in a row, most will look elsewhere but this is a player who has 30+ FanDuel points in two of his last four games and is priced incredibly low!
Victor Oladipo ($5,900) If we are taking the roster approach of fading Westbrook/Harden, we need to find some other ways to get exposure to the highest point total game on the night and Oladipo is my preferred target as he continues to be reasonably priced since returning from injury.
Oladipo has now played 35+ minutes in each of his last two games and has put up 29 FanDuel points per contest. Earlier this season, in the same match-up, Oladipo erupted for 49.5 FanDuel points on the back of 29 points and 10 rebounds. The upside is immense here and if you want to pivot off Westbrook, who gets to face Patrick Beverley, I am happy to take Oladipo who gets to face the defense of James Harden!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Kawhi Leonard ($8,500) The Small Forward position on this slate is quite top-heavy and I expect most will look to save salary here if they intend to roster Westbrook or Harden. My preference is to pay up at this spot in the hopes of an entirely different roster construction and will start with the highest-priced option at the position with Kawhi Leonard.
The Spurs and Nuggets have yet to face-off this season, however last year Kawhi averaged 44.6 FanDuel points in three games against this Denver squad. Leonard has eclipsed 40+ FanDuel points in three of his last five games and allows you to target a high upside fantasy performer at a mid-tier price that will likely be over-looked!
Paul George ($7,900) We have not yet touched on this game, but make sure you get exposure to the Nets and Pacers as they have the second highest combined team total on the slate and the Pacers get to face a team giving up the most fantasy points of any team in the NBA!
The Nets are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing small forwards on the season and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has already been ruled out which means PG-13 should be matched up against Bojan Bogdanovic all night. This is a fantastic spot for George who has already put up 38.8 FanDuel points in this match-up earlier this season and should be able to achieve a total in that range again tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Julius Randle ($7,100) Randle is coming off a monster triple-double in his last game out, totaling 52.3 FanDuel points and tonight gets to match-up with a Portland team that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing PF’s in the entire league.
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Thaddeus Young ($5,200) Heading back to Indiana, we should look to get additional exposure here to the Pacers big men against a weak Nets front-court. Thad has been producing well for the Pacers in recent weeks, eclipsing 30+ FanDuel points in three of his last seven games.
In this match-up earlier in the season, Young racked up a double-double for 35.9 FanDuel points and considering he is locked into 30+ minutes a night, is one of the safer value plays on the board in an elite match-up.
Montrezl Harrell ($4,700) Although I do not normally look to target Centers against Steven Adams, Harrell should be in an ideal spot to thrive in an up-tempo game against the Thunder. Harrell has played 30+ minutes in each of his last three games and has averaged 31 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 6.6x value at this price point!
UPDATE: With the savings we are getting from McCollum down to Kilpatrick, I will look to pay up at Center and lock in either Myles Turner ($6,700) or Andre Drummond ($7,900). Turner gets to face a Nets team that is dead last in DvP against Centers and Drummond faces a Hornets team he dropped 54.5 FanDuel points on last time they met!
Next: FanDuel NFL Playoff Picks
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!