Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 68 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,200) Looking over this slate, there is one game that stands out above the rest and has elite game stacking GPP potential that I am looking to target heavily. The Thunder and Nuggets have the highest combined team total on the slate at 218 and is a rematch of a game earlier this season that went into OT where the Thunder won 132-129.
The stars all seem to be aligning on this slate for a monster Westbrook outing as he gets a match-up against a Denver team that is giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing PG’s on the season. In the last match-up between these two teams, Westbrook put up 36 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds for 69.7 FanDuel points.
The price is high on Westbrook as always but as you will see as we walk through the rest of my picks, the roster construction is such that we can easily fit him in without sacrificing upside across the rest of the line-up.
Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,700) One of the best ways to not only afford Westbrook, but to game stack this contest is to take the PG on the other side of this match-up as Westbrook and the Thunder are ranked 25th in DvP against opposing PG’s this season.
In this match-up earlier this season, Mudiay had 17 points and 5 assists for 29.1 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.2x at this price point. If you are looking to fit in Westbrook, pairing these two PG’s against each other is a great way to get exposure to this game!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Victor Oladipo ($5,900) The beautiful thing about this game is that statistically it lines up perfectly for the strengths of the Thunder. Denver is ranked 29th in DvP to opposing PG’s and 28th to opposing SG’s and the two elite positions on the Thunder both reside in the back-court.
Oladipo has played at least 35 minutes in each of his last three games since returning from injury and this is a spot where the price is simply too cheap for his guaranteed minutes and elite match-up. In this game earlier this season, Dipo put up 26 points, 7 assists and 46.3 FanDuel points which would exceed 7.8x value at this price point.
Gary Harris ($4,600) The game stack continues! Harris is a great way to get cheap exposure to this game and has been able to rack up 20+ FanDuel points in five of his last seven games. Harris has played at least 30 minutes in five of his last seven games as well so he presents a safe floor in this spot.
If you are looking for a pivot, Jeremy Lamb ($3,800) is an intriguing candidate. With the news that Nicolas Batum will be out due to injury, Lamb will likely see a significant uptick in production. With Batum off the court this season, Lamb sees his usage increase to 26% and averaged 1 fantasy point per minute. The match-up against the Spurs may seem tough on paper but keep in mind they are ranked 22nd in DvP to opposing SG’s on the season!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Danilo Gallinari ($6,000) /Wilson Chandler ($5,600) The potential for a double SF Nuggets stack here is off the charts with the news that Nikola Jokic AND Kenneth Faried are questionable for this game. If both players were to miss this game, it would mean big time minutes for both Gallinari and Chandler (as well as a big bump to Jusuf Nurkic).
In this game earlier this season, Gallo sat out with an injury which set up Chandler for a beast 32 point, 11 rebounds 51 FanDuel point outing so the upside is clearly evident.
The Jokic news to me is the most important item we will wait on throughout the day as I would expect Chandler would slide back into the starting line-up. If the Nuggets choose to stick with Darrell Arthur and insert Nurkic at Center, Chandler would still likely see 30+ minutes with Faried out so this is a great spot to get mid-range exposure to this game!
If you are looking for a punt pivot, take a look at Toronto SF DeMarre Carroll ($3,500). Carroll had been on a 20 minute restriction over his previous three games before playing a whopping 39 minutes against the Jazz. In that game, he managed to put up 16.8 FanDuel points which is just shy of 5x value. The Bulls are 17th in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season but I would expect the Bulls will shift Jimmy Butler on to DeMar Derozan which would free up Carroll against Dwayne Wade. I like this spot as a punt play with upside if you need the savings.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Tobias Harris ($6,000) OK enough of Denver-OKC, I promise! I am heading back to one of my favorite FanDuel plays that I frequently highlight in Picks and Pivots as Tobias Harris just continues to churn out 30+ FanDuel point outings since his move to the bench.
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With the move to the second unit, Harris is seeing a bump in usage and has put up 30+ FanDuel points in each of the six games since his move to the bench. Tonight he gets to face a Portland team that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing PF’s and is one of the best plays at PF!
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,900) Porzingis returned to the Knicks lineup last night and played 30 minutes while racking up 34 FanDuel points. Tonight, KP gets to face an Indiana team that is ranked 22nd in DvP against PF’s this season and at a weak PF spot, he makes for a high upside play at a reasonable salary.
Earlier this season, KP put up 21 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocked shots for 35 FanDuel points against the Pacers and I would expect that mark to be his floor tonight. Carmelo Anthony has been carrying a heavy load for the Knicks in the last few games and on a back to back, this may be a spot where KP takes the lead as the Knicks go to offensive weapon!
If you are looking to pay up at the position, Anthony Davis ($10,800) gets an elite match-up against a Celtics team that has struggled to stop opposing big men all season. The Celtics are ranked 22nd in DvP to opposing bigs and this could be an elite GPP spot for The Brow.
Myles Turner ($7,100) This may be a bit of recency love as Turner was responsible for a highly profitable Thursday night when he abused the Nets for 55 FanDuel points. Tonight he gets to face the other NY team and I expect he will find similar success.
The Knicks are ranked 28th in DvP against opposing Centers this season and in this game earlier this year, Turner was able to rack up 21 points, 9 rebounds and 42.3 FanDuel points. The price point is reasonable for Turner and he makes for a great play tonight as part of a Westbrook based roster construction!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter and Facebook for all the late breaking lineup news and roster alerts.